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Elizabeth Warren's Pregnant Pause

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  • Originally posted by Sam View Post
    It would be fair of me to chalk this up to innumeracy but, in reality, it's just the same thing I mentioned above.

    You understand that a 30% chance of winning something means that you'll actually win sometimes (on average, about 1 out of every 3 times, really). You're not innumerate.

    It's just that the actual facts get in the way of the point you tried to make. So ... poof. Gone.


    --Sam
    And how does one test this out, on an event you can only repeat once?
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

    Comment


    • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
      And how does one test this out, on an event you can only repeat once?
      Because it's math.

      If an asteroid's trajectory indicates a 5% chance of hitting Earth and it hits Earth, that doesn't mean the math was wrong. It means that reality landed inside that 5% probability.

      --Sam
      "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

      Comment


      • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
        IE people who agree with Sam. Thanks for proving Teals, Max, MM, and my point.
        Real said no one respects Sam's posts anymore. She was wrong.

        And the problem of respect has nothing to do with the quality of sams posts. It is that those reading no longer have the capacity to recognize objectivity or scholarship if the opinion expressed is not their own.

        Jim
        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Sam View Post
          Because it's math.

          If an asteroid's trajectory indicates a 5% chance of hitting Earth and it hits Earth, that doesn't mean the math was wrong. It means that reality landed inside that 5% probability.

          --Sam
          I like how you pretend that predicting the path of asteroids is the same as predicting a presidential election. Asteroids are not subject to fickle humans, but physical forces that tend to work in predictable ways. The polling data hasn’t done so hot over the past few years.
          "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
          GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sam View Post
            Because it's math.

            If an asteroid's trajectory indicates a 5% chance of hitting Earth and it hits Earth, that doesn't mean the math was wrong. It means that reality landed inside that 5% probability.

            --Sam
            I don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data.
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
              I like how you pretend that predicting the path of asteroids is the same as predicting a presidential election. Asteroids are not subject to fickle humans, but physical forces that tend to work in predictable ways. The polling data hasn’t done so hot over the past few years.
              Not to mention that
              A) fewer people are keeping landlines, and
              2) many of us simply decline to be polled, and
              C) there seems to be a trend in people messing with pollsters.
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                Real said no one respects Sam's posts anymore. She was wrong.

                And the problem of respect has nothing to do with the quality of sams posts. It is that those reading no longer have the capacity to recognize objectivity or scholarship if the opinion expressed is not their own.

                Jim
                One symptom of TDS, a total loss of the centers of the brain responsible for understanding humor, satire, or exaggeration.
                "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                  I don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data.
                  Yes -- and that's true for projectiles and politicians alike. So if someone finds something wrong with the model -- with the math or with the model's assumptions, they have the ability to point that out and refine the model so it better predicts reality.

                  What a person can't do is say something like "The polls predicted Clinton would win and she didn't" as a legitimate criticism when the polls 1) didn't say that and 2) prediction models put out around a 30% chance of her losing.

                  It's the difference between accepting the fact that reputable polls, and polling in aggregate, are good and useful information and denying the validity of the entire discipline of polling because one or many polls show unfavorable data.

                  --Sam
                  "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    I don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data.
                    Asteroids don’t take a vote in their chosen path. They are guided by the laws of physics. There a reason I can buy a 2020 calendar with the dates of the phases of the moon printed in it.
                    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                      I like how you pretend that predicting the path of asteroids is the same as predicting a presidential election. Asteroids are not subject to fickle humans, but physical forces that tend to work in predictable ways. The polling data hasn’t done so hot over the past few years.
                      In 2018, the RCP average from Oct. 13 - Nov. 3 was D +7.3.

                      The final electoral result was D +8.4, a difference of ... 1.1%.

                      Aggregated polls have been doing just fine the past few years.

                      --Sam
                      "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                        Asteroids don’t take a vote in their chosen path. They are guided by the laws of physics. There a reason I can buy a 2020 calendar with the dates of the phases of the moon printed in it.

                        This makes a whole lot less sense when you realize that polls are showing what people say what they think or plan to do.

                        --Sam
                        "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                          I don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data.
                          I hate you. And Lil...


                          I'm NEVER gonna hear the end of this!!!

                          You know DARN WELL he's NEVER gonna let me forget this!!!


                          Sam's correct about how probability works.


                          The problem with the polling is that multiple different polls got pretty much the same results. THAT is NOT how probability - or polling - work. Part of why we trust weighted results is their consistency - and if they aren't truly representative, they shouldn't be consistent.

                          So yes, sometimes the result simply falls in the lower estimate (poor weathermen know this only too well). But multiple different polls shouldn't have that happen (it's still possible but far less likely - like flipping heads one hundred times in a row).


                          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                          My Personal Blog

                          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                          Quill Sword

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                            In 2018, the RCP average from Oct. 13 - Nov. 3 was D +7.3.

                            The final electoral result was D +8.4, a difference of ... 1.1%.

                            Aggregated polls have been doing just fine the past few years.

                            --Sam
                            And yet, they seem to not be getting the probable winner right in numbers important races. How well did things go in the last special election?
                            Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 10-14-2019, 09:56 PM.
                            "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                            GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                              This makes a whole lot less sense when you realize that polls are showing what people say what they think or plan to do.

                              --Sam
                              Polls are always cross sectional.
                              "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                              "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                              My Personal Blog

                              My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                              Quill Sword

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                                I hate you. And Lil...


                                I'm NEVER gonna hear the end of this!!!

                                You know DARN WELL he's NEVER gonna let me forget this!!!


                                Sam's correct about how probability works.


                                The problem with the polling is that multiple different polls got pretty much the same results. THAT is NOT how probability - or polling - work. Part of why we trust weighted results is their consistency - and if they aren't truly representative, they shouldn't be consistent.

                                So yes, sometimes the result simply falls in the lower estimate (poor weathermen know this only too well). But multiple different polls shouldn't have that happen (it's still possible but far less likely - like flipping heads one hundred times in a row).


                                The issue is they don’t seem to be doing all that great picking the most probable winner lately.
                                "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                                GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                                Comment

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