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Important Early Metrics

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  • Important Early Metrics

    It is too early to call the race!!!

    But limping is never a good sign...



    Modern polling is done with microscopic samples and a careful thumb on the scale. This makes it poor at reading changes in the electorate - people being fickle at the best of times. Even well done polls are only a snapshot of what today is like - it isn't a crystal ball into tomorrow.

    There are several factors playing into the current dog and pony show that is the bloated Democrat field heading into traditional campaign season - micro-fundraising is one (my guess it's the biggest factor keeping the field so ridiculously large - the three ring debates didn't help). The complete lack of a solid front runner and the obsession with 'Twitter culture' are others. The result is a fine collection of circus ponies - but no real race horse.

    That was fine in January - it's bad news in September.

    On the other side, an embattled incumbent - who is daily slaughtered in an increasingly out of touch, mistrusted and largely irrelevant press. The greatest scandal of the past three years has crumbled to nothing. Economic improvements are showing marked effects on the polls measuring voter concerns but ignored by the media. Stalwart supporters cringe every time they look at Twitter. Every week brings a new, colorful and insane controversy. Approval ratings run low - this should be just a show pony, right?

    Not quite.

    Approval ratings are showing a comeback - but it's a terrible metric so I'll leave it alone.

    Here's the one that counts this early in the race - money. The Trump campaign was outperforming the democrats BEFORE he announced - now, the margin has widen to unreal proportions.

    2019, Second Quarter:
    Source: Business Insider

    The Trump reelection campaign's fundraising in Q2 is a staggering amount. In context, it is almost $30 million greater than then-President Barack Obama's $86 million at the same point in 2011.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Source: Business Insider



    "Our massive fundraising success is a testament to the overwhelming support for President Trump," Trump reelection campaign manager Brad Parscale said in a statement. "No Democrat candidate can match this level of enthusiasm or President Trump's outstanding record of results."

    The campaign got a major boost in June from Trump's official announcement that he would be seeking reelection, though that has been apparent for the past two years. In the 24 hours after Trump's rally in Orlando, Florida, the campaign raised $24.8 million.

    Democratic presidential candidates have not even come close to that first-day figure. Former Vice President Joe Biden managed to raise $6.3 million within 24 hours of announcing his 2020 run, just slightly ahead of former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke at $6.1 million, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at $5.9 million.

    Source

    © Copyright Original Source



    That's before he collected $15 million in ONE DAY in CALIFORNIA.


    That's a contending race horse coming out of the paddock while the circus ponies are still dancing in the center ring...


    Last edited by Teallaura; 09-21-2019, 05:03 PM.

    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

    My Personal Blog

    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

  • #2
    2020 Presidential Race

    2019-09-21_17-42-27.jpg

    Comment


    • #3
      As I say, the only poll that matters is the one that's counted on election day.
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
        As I say, the only poll that matters is the one that's counted on election day.
        Polling wrt to elections has been wildly off in too many instances in recent years. Look at Brexit, the 2016 election and even the North Carolina special election where the Republican was down by something like 14 to 17 points less than a week out from the vote.

        I'm always still in trouble again

        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          Polling wrt to elections has been wildly off in too many instances in recent years. Look at Brexit, the 2016 election and even the North Carolina special election where the Republican was down by something like 14 to 17 points less than a week out from the vote.
          What do you think is the reason for that?

          Jim
          He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

          "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
            What do you think is the reason for that?

            Jim
            *ahem*

            You shouldn't assume you're responding to a true statement.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
              *ahem*

              You shouldn't assume you're responding to a true statement.
              True.

              Jim
              He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

              "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                As I say, the only poll that matters is the one that's counted on election day.
                Pretty much.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I'm curious, how do these numbers stack up compared to the 2012 election, the last time we had an incumbent candidate?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                    What do you think is the reason for that?

                    Jim
                    Voters covertly voting against candidates they openly say they support because of public stigmas they want to avoid
                    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                      I'm curious, how do these numbers stack up compared to the 2012 election, the last time we had an incumbent candidate?

                      Pretty well:

                      Source: Wikipedia

                      Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) ultimately raised a combined $55 million in the first quarter. According to the National Review's Kelly Jane Torrance, Barack Obama and the Democratic National Committee had raised roughly $16 million in the same period of Obama's first term.[8]
                      Source

                      © Copyright Original Source


                      If memory serves, second quarter also surpassed Obama.


                      For your weeding pleasure:

                      https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-pre...e?id=N00023864

                      https://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/

                      "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                      "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                      My Personal Blog

                      My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                        Pretty well:

                        Source: Wikipedia

                        Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) ultimately raised a combined $55 million in the first quarter. According to the National Review's Kelly Jane Torrance, Barack Obama and the Democratic National Committee had raised roughly $16 million in the same period of Obama's first term.[8]
                        Source

                        © Copyright Original Source


                        If memory serves, second quarter also surpassed Obama.


                        For your weeding pleasure:

                        https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-pre...e?id=N00023864

                        https://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/
                        This is what I'm wondering; big business / Wall Street monies in the past has been pretty evenly split between Dems and Pubs, often favoring the Dems. But with all this business bashing by the Dems I suspect the real big money will shift more towards the Republicans.
                        Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by seer View Post
                          This is what I'm wondering; big business / Wall Street monies in the past has been pretty evenly split between Dems and Pubs, often favoring the Dems. But with all this business bashing by the Dems I suspect the real big money will shift more towards the Republicans.
                          Such an attitude might actually increase donations as they rush forward to buy an exemption.

                          I'm always still in trouble again

                          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            Such an attitude might actually increase donations as they rush forward to buy an exemption.
                            Then there is that - but why not just support the business friendly guy...
                            Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Trump and RNC raised massive $125 million in third quarter


                              Obama raised $71 million in the same period.

                              Impeachment as a fundraising tool is still weird - but I suppose Trump owes Pelosi a couple dozen roses...

                              "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                              "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                              My Personal Blog

                              My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                              Comment

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