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Trump Administration Whistleblower Cover-Up

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  • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Yeah, it's still WAY early, but...
    A little context.

    Rasmussen is an IVR, i.e., Interactive Voice Response aka Robocall survey. Given the methodology, they are hugely prolific, providing the second largest sample of polls tracked by 538 after SurveyUSA, which is likewise a robocaller, but also includes live response polls and adheres to higher industry standards.

    2019-09-22_07-34-46.jpg

    NCPP/AAPOR/Roper

    • Indicates the polling firm was a member of the National Council on Public Polls, a signatory to the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s transparency initiative or a contributor to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research’s data archive as of May 22, 2018. This is a proxy for methodological quality.

    There's a noticeable bias in Rasmussen polls, but it's the stability that matters, as a predictable bias can simply be subtracted. In aggregate, they're relatively stable, but the small sample sizes of individual polls regularly generate one-day blips.

    Even after the adjustment to account for past performance, this poll is an outlier in the time frame specified:

    2019-09-22_07-41-55.jpg

    Comment


    • Originally posted by JimLamebrain View Post
      Dude, give it up. For one thing the investigation into Burisma was already shelved at the time of Bidens visit and Hunter Biden himself was not even investigated at that time.
      False.

      Ukrainian officials tell me there was one crucial piece of information that [Joe] Biden must have known but didn’t mention to his audience: The prosecutor he got fired was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into the natural gas firm Burisma Holdings that employed Biden’s younger son, Hunter, as a board member.

      ...

      The general prosecutor’s official file for the Burisma probe — shared with me by senior Ukrainian officials — shows prosecutors identified Hunter Biden, business partner Devon Archer and their firm, Rosemont Seneca, as potential recipients of money.

      Shokin told me in written answers to questions that, before he was fired as general prosecutor, he had made “specific plans” for the investigation that “included interrogations and other crime-investigation procedures into all members of the executive board, including Hunter Biden.”

      ...

      Although Biden made no mention of his son in his 2018 speech, U.S. and Ukrainian authorities both told me Biden and his office clearly had to know about the general prosecutor's probe of Burisma and his son's role.

      ...

      Most of the general prosecutor’s investigative work on Burisma focused on three separate cases, and most stopped abruptly once Shokin was fired. The most prominent of the Burisma cases was transferred to a different Ukrainian agency, closely aligned with the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, known as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), according to the case file and current General Prosecutor Yuriy Lutsenko.

      NABU closed that case, and a second case involving alleged improper money transfers in London was dropped when Ukrainian officials failed to file the necessary documents by the required deadline. The general prosecutor’s office successfully secured a multimillion-dollar judgment in a tax evasion case, Lutsenko said. He did not say who was the actual defendant in that case.

      As a result, the Biden family appeared to have escaped the potential for an embarrassing inquiry overseas in the final days of the Obama administration and during an election in which Democrat Hillary Clinton was running for president in 2016.

      https://thehill.com/opinion/white-ho...obe-is-revived

      And I note again that the Ukrainian government was troubled enough by this episode that they have repeatedly asked the US government to look into the matter.
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • And now we learn from CNN of all places that the "whistleblower" had no direct knowledge and was basing his complaint entirely on rumor and supposition.

        The whistleblower didn't have direct knowledge of the communications, an official briefed on the matter told CNN. Instead, the whistleblower's concerns came in part from learning information that was not obtained during the course of their work, and those details have played a role in the administration's determination that the complaint didn't fit the reporting requirements under the intelligence whistleblower law, the official said.

        Naturally, CNN buried this important revelation 22 paragraphs below their provocative headline.

        https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/20/pol...wer/index.html
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • Peter Schweizer:

          “I mean, you look at — around the world, there are two countries where Joe Biden is the point person for the Obama administration: China and Ukraine, and in both cases, his son lands huge deals in both countries. I mean, what are the odds of that? … We don’t ultimately know right now what he was selling, but it warrants investigation."

          https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019...-point-person/
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            So you're saying that Biden was sent over to the Ukraine by the Obama Administration to directly interfere with that country's internal politics?
            No, where did I say anything about their politics?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
              Peter Schweizer:

              “I mean, you look at — around the world, there are two countries where Joe Biden is the point person for the Obama administration: China and Ukraine, and in both cases, his son lands huge deals in both countries. I mean, what are the odds of that? … We don’t ultimately know right now what he was selling, but it warrants investigation."

              https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019...-point-person/
              Why does it warrant investigation, do you have any actual evidence of wrong doing. No you don't. All you have is, "oh, Hunter Biden made a lot of money while employed by a companey that was under investigation. Personally I couldn't care less if he is investigated or found guilty of something. But to extort another country during a political campaign in an attempt to smear your probable opponent is abuse of power and impeachable. But of course it is only one more of the many impeachable offenses already committed by this President which you supporters of his are obviously too biased to recognize, at least openly.

              Besides that, consider your sources!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by JimLamebrain View Post
                Why does it warrant investigation, do you have any actual evidence of wrong doing. No you don't. All you have is, "oh, Hunter Biden made a lot of money while employed by a companey that was under investigation. Personally I couldn't care less if he is investigated or found guilty of something. But to extort another country during a political campaign in an attempt to smear your probable opponent is abuse of power and impeachable. But of course it is only one more of the many impeachable offenses already committed by this President which you supporters of his are obviously too biased to recognize, at least openly.

                Besides that, consider your sources!
                What are you talking about? President Trump didn't extort anyone. The Ukrainian government suspects that US laws were broken and has been trying to get the US to investigate this shady business for nearly two-years, and to the best of our knowledge, the only thing Trump has done is honor their request, and the only reason we even know that much is because someone inside the Trump administration (perhaps illegally) leaked details of privileged communications despite not having any firsthand knowledge of the situation.
                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                Comment


                • [Ukraine Foreign Minister] Vadym Prystaiko was a participant in the discussions between the U.S. and Ukraine and has specific knowledge of the phone call. Minister Prystaiko says the phone call was long, friendly and covered a variety of important issues. There was no undue pressure or “coercion” from U.S. President Donald Trump.

                  https://theconservativetreehouse.com...dent-zelensky/
                  Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                  But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                  Than a fool in the eyes of God


                  From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    When you think of all the hammering Trump has had day in and day out from all sides, including a media that admits it's even given up any pretense of objectivity, the guy should be at about 29%.
                    It's directly related to the economy. It's hard to hate a president, even one who opens himself to criticism as often as Trump does, when unemployment is at an all time low, and people aren't so worried about how to put food on the table. Whether Trump is directly responsible for that is likely up for debate, but it definitely works in his favor.

                    FiveThirtyEight's criticism of Rasmussen is interesting, but I imagine an argument from the right might be that FiveThirtyEight themselves lean left, and so their criticism of Rasmussen is unsurprising, but I don't know enough (or really care enough) about politics and polling data to say if that argument might have teeth.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                      No, where did I say anything about their politics?
                      So, I know how badly you want to implicate Biden even though you know nothing, but the VP was actually sent to Ukraine by the Obama Administration because the Prosecutor General, Shokin, wasn't prosecuting the rampant corruption taking place there in Ukraine.
                      You proclaimed that Biden was sent by the Obama Administration because they didn't think that a prosecutor was moving quick enough at prosecuting corruption cases. And Biden threatened to cut off aid to the country unless the prosecutor they didn't like was fired.

                      I'm always still in trouble again

                      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Adrift View Post
                        It's directly related to the economy. It's hard to hate a president, even one who opens himself to criticism as often as Trump does, when unemployment is at an all time low, and people aren't so worried about how to put food on the table. Whether Trump is directly responsible for that is likely up for debate, but it definitely works in his favor.

                        FiveThirtyEight's criticism of Rasmussen is interesting, but I imagine an argument from the right might be that FiveThirtyEight themselves lean left, and so their criticism of Rasmussen is unsurprising, but I don't know enough (or really care enough) about politics and polling data to say if that argument might have teeth.
                        Whatever the case Rasmussen was the most accurate of the major pollsters during the 2016 presidential race.

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          Whatever the case Rasmussen was the most accurate of the major pollsters during the 2016 presidential race.
                          I follow these things, and I've seen no analysis that makes that claim.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                            What are you talking about? President Trump didn't extort anyone. The Ukrainian government suspects that US laws were broken and has been trying to get the US to investigate this shady business for nearly two-years, and to the best of our knowledge, the only thing Trump has done is honor their request, and the only reason we even know that much is because someone inside the Trump administration (perhaps illegally) leaked details of privileged communications despite not having any firsthand knowledge of the situation.
                            If there is a case for extortion it would be Biden threatening to hold back something like a billion dollars in aid unless the prosecutor that was just happening to be investigating his son and the company he worked for was fired.

                            I'm always still in trouble again

                            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                              I follow these things, and I've seen no analysis that makes that claim.
                              It was right after the election when everyone was talking about how off the mark the pollsters were.

                              I'm always still in trouble again

                              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Adrift View Post
                                FiveThirtyEight's criticism of Rasmussen is interesting, but I imagine an argument from the right might be that FiveThirtyEight themselves lean left, and so their criticism of Rasmussen is unsurprising, but I don't know enough (or really care enough) about politics and polling data to say if that argument might have teeth.
                                538 is the brainchild of a sports nut who turned his stats geekdom over to polling analysis. All of the data are accessible to download at the link I provided. Accusations of underlying partisanship might as well be leveled at MS Excel.

                                Comment

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