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Why NC-9 Should Frighten the Democrats

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  • Why NC-9 Should Frighten the Democrats

    Why NC-9 Should Frighten the Democrats


    Last week the Democrats were touting the special election in North Carolina’s 9th District as the first major contest of the 2020 cycle, and the polls indicated that Democrat Dan McCready might win what should be a pretty safe GOP seat. By Wednesday morning, after Republican Dan Bishop had won, their focus had shifted and much commentary was devoted to his “thin margin of victory.” Little notice was taken of certain voting patterns that should frighten the Democrats. Specifically, McCready did far worse than expected in every county but one, and many of those counties are dominated by minority voters.

    The most unnerving example, from the Democratic perspective, is rural Robeson County. The ethnic makeup of this county is as follows: Native American (38.6%), White (25.7%), Black (24%), Hispanic (8.52%), Two or More Races (2.15%), Asian (0.66%), Other (0.275%). On Tuesday the Democrat received a fraction of the votes he received in 2018, running for the same seat. Ryan Matsumoto of Inside Elections provides the gory details: “McCready won Robeson County by only 1.11 points, a MASSIVE decrease from his 15.31 point margin last November.” In 2012, Obama carried Robeson by 17 points.

    This is a county of about 143,000, and 74 percent of these folks are clearly not the racist rednecks the Democrats would have us believe make up most of the Trump/GOP base. The shift away from McCready was the result of disenchantment among minority voters with the Democrat. Moreover, though Robeson was the most obvious, it was by no means the only ethnically diverse county whose voters “walked away.” Nearly 60 percent of Cumberland County’s approximately 333,000 residents are Black, Hispanic, or a member of some other minority group. McCready won it in 2018. Dan Bishop won Cumberland on Tuesday.

    Much the same scenario was played out in every county except the affluent white areas of Mecklenburg County, the only place where the Democrat improved on his 2018 performance. Bishop only flipped two new counties from blue to red, but he turned several from dark blue to pale blue, reducing McCready’s margins in enough ethnically diverse rural counties to win. So, what’s going on here? The answer will be obvious to all but the willfully blind. Despite consistent attempts by the Democrats to frighten minorities with evidence-free claims that the economy is faltering, no one is buying that tale.....
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  • #2
    The NC Republicans deserved to lose for their 9/11 memorial service stunt alone. Ugh.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    • #3
      Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
      The NC Republicans deserved to lose for their 9/11 memorial service stunt alone. Ugh.
      Oh? Missed that. Was it in the article I scanned?
      "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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      • #4
        Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
        The NC Republicans deserved to lose for their 9/11 memorial service stunt alone. Ugh.
        What was that?
        Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
          Oh? Missed that. Was it in the article I scanned?
          Nope, just a local controversy.

          The Republicans in the state legislature waited until most of the Democrats were at a 9/11 memorial service to sneak overturn the governor's veto of the budget (after promising they wouldn't pursue any legislation). I'm furious.
          "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
            Nope, just a local controversy.

            The Republicans in the state legislature waited until most of the Democrats were at a 9/11 memorial service to sneak overturn the governor's veto of the budget (after promising they wouldn't pursue any legislation). I'm furious.
            Ah - yeah, understandably so.
            "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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            • #7
              Back to the subject at hand... I'm hearing the left pumped in a lot of money from out of state to win this race -- many times more than what the Republicans spent. Anyone got any details?

              I've also heard that the Democrat was up by something like 17 points according to the polls something like a week before the election.

              I'm always still in trouble again

              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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              • #8
                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                Back to the subject at hand... I'm hearing the left pumped in a lot of money from out of state to win this race -- many times more than what the Republicans spent. Anyone got any details?

                I've also heard that the Democrat was up by something like 17 points according to the polls something like a week before the election.
                I just heard it on the radio - 8 million for the Dem, not even half of that for the Pub. Who knows... I think Trump's rally helped though...
                Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  Back to the subject at hand... I'm hearing the left pumped in a lot of money from out of state to win this race -- many times more than what the Republicans spent. Anyone got any details?

                  I've also heard that the Democrat was up by something like 17 points according to the polls something like a week before the election.
                  Here are some quick numbers by https://www.issueone.org/outside-mon...he-nc-09-race/.

                  • $20.3 million: The amount that candidates, outside groups, and political parties have invested so far in this election. Of that, $8.1 million was controlled by the candidates, $7.8 million was spent by outside groups, including super PACs and dark money groups, and $4.3 million was spent by the NRCC and the DCCC.
                  • 100%: The percentage of spending by the party committees that was negative.
                  • 100%: The percentage of dark money in this race that supports Democrat Dan McCready, with four liberal dark money groups spending a combined $1.6 million.
                  • 29: The number of outside groups — including super PACs, political action committees, and dark money groups — active in this race. The top-spending group — the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, which supported Republican Dan Bishop — alone spent $2.3 million, accounting for about 30% of all spending by outside groups in the race.
                  • 2.6-to-1: The ratio of campaign cash raised by Democrat Dan McCready ($5.4 million) versus Republican Dan Bishop ($2.1 million).
                  • 2.5-to-1: The ratio of money spent on ads by the NRCC ($3.1 million) versus money spent on ads by the DCCC ($1.2 million).
                  • 1.4-to-1: The ratio of money spent by other outside groups supporting Republican Dan Bishop ($3.9 million) versus money spent by other liberal outside groups supporting Dan McCready ($2.7 million).

                  "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                    Here are some quick numbers by https://www.issueone.org/outside-mon...he-nc-09-race/.

                    • $20.3 million: The amount that candidates, outside groups, and political parties have invested so far in this election. Of that, $8.1 million was controlled by the candidates, $7.8 million was spent by outside groups, including super PACs and dark money groups, and $4.3 million was spent by the NRCC and the DCCC.
                    • 100%: The percentage of spending by the party committees that was negative.
                    • 100%: The percentage of dark money in this race that supports Democrat Dan McCready, with four liberal dark money groups spending a combined $1.6 million.
                    • 29: The number of outside groups — including super PACs, political action committees, and dark money groups — active in this race. The top-spending group — the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, which supported Republican Dan Bishop — alone spent $2.3 million, accounting for about 30% of all spending by outside groups in the race.
                    • 2.6-to-1: The ratio of campaign cash raised by Democrat Dan McCready ($5.4 million) versus Republican Dan Bishop ($2.1 million).
                    • 2.5-to-1: The ratio of money spent on ads by the NRCC ($3.1 million) versus money spent on ads by the DCCC ($1.2 million).
                    • 1.4-to-1: The ratio of money spent by other outside groups supporting Republican Dan Bishop ($3.9 million) versus money spent by other liberal outside groups supporting Dan McCready ($2.7 million).

                    From this it looks like the same amount was spent by both sides.

                    I'm always still in trouble again

                    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                      Nope, just a local controversy.

                      The Republicans in the state legislature waited until most of the Democrats were at a 9/11 memorial service to sneak overturn the governor's veto of the budget (after promising they wouldn't pursue any legislation). I'm furious.
                      Er, technically, they didn't 'pursue' legislation...

                      Read a WP article - the Dems claim the Speaker promised no votes and local outlets report only one or two Dems actually attended 9/11 memorials at the time. The Speaker denies making the promise.

                      How did the Democrats not know the legislature was in session? Where were they?

                      "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                      "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                      My Personal Blog

                      My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                        Back to the subject at hand... I'm hearing the left pumped in a lot of money from out of state to win this race -- many times more than what the Republicans spent. Anyone got any details?

                        I've also heard that the Democrat was up by something like 17 points according to the polls something like a week before the election.
                        How I've heard it, this was a seat that the Democrats lost in 2018, but they insisted the margin of victory was too narrow, so they sued for a recount; however, the Republican candidate said, "Forget it. I don't have time for this nonsense," and resigned. This is what triggered the special election. The Democrats poured tons of money into this race, and the Democrat candidate was in continual campaign mode since late 2018, while the Republican challenger only campaigned for a few months. By all accounts, the Democrats should have had a significant advantage going into this election, but they managed to lose by an even larger margin than before.
                        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                        Than a fool in the eyes of God


                        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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                        • #13
                          Its anyone's guess, I honestly don't know anymore.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                            Er, technically, they didn't 'pursue' legislation...

                            Read a WP article - the Dems claim the Speaker promised no votes and local outlets report only one or two Dems actually attended 9/11 memorials at the time. The Speaker denies making the promise.

                            How did the Democrats not know the legislature was in session? Where were they?
                            Sounds like to me the Republicans calculated slyly, and exploited a chance opportunity, and cheated their enemy.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                              Its anyone's guess, I honestly don't know anymore.
                              The term "bellwether" was being tossed around by liberal pundits before the election, saying that it would be a preview of the 2020 election. There were actually two races in North Carolina. One was a blowout in favor of the Republicans, the other, in the 9th district, was a narrow win. Of course the narrative immediately changed, and now it's no longer a sign of things to come.
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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