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  • #61
    Originally posted by myth View Post
    I'm always concerned about sampling bias. However, a quick look at their headlines shows them calling out both republicans and democrats for telling falsehoods.
    The key here is triage. He lies too much for anyone to keep up, so fact checkers need to pick and choose, and naturally enough, they choose the worst, skewing his ratios. That's the sampling bias I was speaking about.

    I'm a socially-conservative, right-leaning Independent voter who linked to a (probably) left-leaning website. Of course I'm suspicious of all that. But I'm suspicious about everyone and every thing, lol.
    First of all, welcome to the independent resistance. I've been holding chairs.

    There's an all-pervasive myth, sorry about that, that goes, "Everyone's the same, so ..." followed by a statement that low SES kids should do as well on standardized exams, or that right wing nuttery is no more pervasive than its opposite ...

    From a false premise, anything can be proven. There's a famous table for that.
    TT T
    TF F
    FT T
    FF T

    To the extent the "all the same" premise is true, it can be demonstrated, or if false, disproven.

    Alex Jones has no opposite number. QED.

    Facts generally do line up more on one side than the other.

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by myth View Post
      Thank you for your apology, Teallaura. I also apologize if I was rude or too blunt. I was a little torqued out over what I thought was a false accusation against me. You're normally pretty level headed and I couldn't understand why you seemed so angry. Out of curiosity, did you read the article I linked (there were several linked here, so I'm not sure which ones you read). Here it is, in case you are interested: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019...e-forecasters/

      In reference to the 'twerp' in Birmingham -- think about it the other way around, Teal. Just like Sam said. He's a lowly bureaucrat in an obscure government office. Does he publicly contradict the president and risk his job over being accussed of partisanship? Or, if he has any sense...does he risk his own career to publish more accurate information in the interest of public safety? Even the articles I'm readying now say stuff like "NOAA turns against their own scientists", etc....who is more likely to play politics, the federal agency admin most likely to be sacked if the don't play nice with the WH, or the individual scientists who spend their entire career studying weather in order to help protect the public?

      Most news articles are reporting that basically Trump used a sharpie, HIMSELF, on a map he posted in his defense. Let's ignore the previous criminal allegation -- does that not just seem a little crazy to you? For clarity, I earlier admitted the chance of the media hoopla actually harming someone was slim -- I'm simply offended that the POTUS would risk that (however slight), because of his need to deceive in order to appear correct.

      Trump has a real problem with telling the truth, more than even other politicians. And this coming from a socially conservative who's only ever voted for Republicans (me). Check this out:

      Obama's record:
      https://www.politifact.com/personalities/barack-obama/

      Trumps':
      https://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/

      So basically, of the statement's they've examined...60% Trump's statements have ranged from "mostly false" to "pants on fire". We should question literally every word that comes out of his mouth.
      Politifact is not a credible source.

      I'm always still in trouble again

      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by myth View Post
        Oh come on, that's a bit outlandish. He kept courting the Russians earlier on because he didn't intend to be President or think he could win. He wanted to parlay his presidential-candidate status into a Trump Tower in Moscow and/or whatever else he could. As he began to do better in the election, he realized being president was a real possibility and changed strategies.
        This ... may not hold up as the Roger Stone trial gets underway. Trump reportedly sent Stone to go looking for Clinton's "missing emails" and Stone allegedly (by the Mueller investigation) found his way to Wikileaks which, by that time, was suspected by US intelligence as being a cut-out for Russian hack n' dump operations. Stone allegedly discovered that Wikileaks was holding the Podesta emails and worked with Assange/Wikileaks to time the emails in such a way that maximized benefit to Trump (the Podesta emails began to be released in the hour following the Access Hollywood tape and would drip out piecemeal for weeks afterward).

        According to recently released pre-trial documents, four numbers for Donald Trump, along with numbers for his family and close aides during the campaign, are relevant to Stone's upcoming trial. Trump is implicated (although he could not be directly named or charged, as President) in directing Stone's Wikileaks-optimization of "dirt", which is very similar in nature to courting Russian offers of "dirt" earlier in the campaign.

        The Trump Tower Moscow dealings continued, according to Michael Cohen, through the summer of 2016 and up through November.

        --Sam
        "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
          The key here is triage. He lies too much for anyone to keep up, so fact checkers need to pick and choose, and naturally enough, they choose the worst, skewing his ratios. That's the sampling bias I was speaking about.
          Daniel Dale, first at the Toronto Star and now at CNN, has pursued an interesting project since around Trump's inauguration by relentlessly fact-checking all public speeches, rallies, and interviews Trump participates in. That eliminates the firehose aspect but introduces another comparison problem, since other presidents didn't undergo the same scrutiny.

          They didn't have to, since they didn't lie like breathing, but there is that.

          --Sam
          "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            Politifact is not a credible source.
            That's a statement that needs to be stripped of its partisan bias. You've got negative credibility on this one, rouge.

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              Politifact is not a credible source.
              What's a similar but more credible site you'd use?

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Sam View Post
                Daniel Dale, first at the Toronto Star and now at CNN, has pursued an interesting project since around Trump's inauguration by relentlessly fact-checking all public speeches, rallies, and interviews Trump participates in. That eliminates the firehose aspect but introduces another comparison problem, since other presidents didn't undergo the same scrutiny.

                They didn't have to, since they didn't lie like breathing, but there is that.

                --Sam
                In 928 days, President Trump has made
                12,019 false or misleading claims

                The Fact Checker’s ongoing database of the false or misleading claims made by President Trump since assuming office.
                Updated Aug. 5, 2019

                I'm imagining the haggard miens of the folks working that treadmill. If it weren't for his penchant for repetition, they'd never get a break.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by myth View Post
                  Thank you for your apology, Teallaura. I also apologize if I was rude or too blunt. I was a little torqued out over what I thought was a false accusation against me. You're normally pretty level headed and I couldn't understand why you seemed so angry. Out of curiosity, did you read the article I linked (there were several linked here, so I'm not sure which ones you read). Here it is, in case you are interested: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019...e-forecasters/

                  In reference to the 'twerp' in Birmingham -- think about it the other way around, Teal. Just like Sam said. He's a lowly bureaucrat in an obscure government office. Does he publicly contradict the president and risk his job over being accussed of partisanship? Or, if he has any sense...does he risk his own career to publish more accurate information in the interest of public safety? Even the articles I'm readying now say stuff like "NOAA turns against their own scientists", etc....who is more likely to play politics, the federal agency admin most likely to be sacked if the don't play nice with the WH, or the individual scientists who spend their entire career studying weather in order to help protect the public?

                  Most news articles are reporting that basically Trump used a sharpie, HIMSELF, on a map he posted in his defense. Let's ignore the previous criminal allegation -- does that not just seem a little crazy to you? For clarity, I earlier admitted the chance of the media hoopla actually harming someone was slim -- I'm simply offended that the POTUS would risk that (however slight), because of his need to deceive in order to appear correct.

                  Trump has a real problem with telling the truth, more than even other politicians. And this coming from a socially conservative who's only ever voted for Republicans (me). Check this out:

                  Obama's record:
                  https://www.politifact.com/personalities/barack-obama/

                  Trumps':
                  https://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/

                  So basically, of the statement's they've examined...60% Trump's statements have ranged from "mostly false" to "pants on fire". We should question literally every word that comes out of his mouth.

                  Before I tackle this (tomorrow - I already owe Leo an answer) tell me why it's okay to be rude, in public, to a superior, when there's no need to be rude?

                  "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                  "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                  My Personal Blog

                  My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                    Politifact is not a credible source.
                    That, too.

                    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                    My Personal Blog

                    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                    Comment


                    • #70



                      (If I did this right, it starts with him talking about Sharpiegate - 14:01)

                      "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                      "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                      My Personal Blog

                      My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        I genuinely don't understand why you think the Birmingham tweet was rude. It did not mention Trump at all. The urgent nature of an oncoming hurricane means that NOAA should be tackling misconceptions and accurately disseminating information. The fact that Trump weighed in on the issue does not somehow mean that the accurate information cannot be disseminated. With an oncoming hurricane, there is no time to try to communicate through backchannels and get a retraction out there in a day or two. The information needs to be up there now.

                        The only person who was rude was Trump who made personal attacks on Twitter on reporters who tried to set the story straight.

                        Seriously, why do you care so much about the supposed "rude" treatment (both here and in the Greenland thread, which was also not an example of r udeness) about somebody who constantly makes public petty personal attacks on anybody he disagrees with, but don't seem concerned about that?
                        Last edited by KingsGambit; 09-07-2019, 04:39 PM.
                        "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                          I genuinely don't understand why you think the Birmingham tweet was rude. It did not mention Trump at all. The urgent nature of an oncoming hurricane means that NOAA should be tackling misconceptions and accurately disseminating information. The fact that Trump weighed in on the issue does not somehow mean that the accurate information cannot be disseminated. With an oncoming hurricane, there is no time to try to communicate through backchannels and get a retraction out there in a day or two. The information needs to be up there now.

                          The only person who was rude was Trump who made personal attacks on Twitter on reporters who tried to set the story straight.

                          Seriously, why do you care so much about the supposed "rude" treatment (both here and in the Greenland thread, which was also not an example of r udeness) about somebody who constantly makes public petty personal attacks on anybody he disagrees with, but don't seem concerned about that?
                          There is no basis for this assertion.

                          I think this assertion is baseless.

                          The assertion seems baseless to me.

                          Three different ways to say the same thing - and all three get different initial reactions. That's why.



                          If you expect Trump to be a jerk, why deliberately provoke him? If you work for him - which the NWS does - at least respect the office.

                          And only Sam, per his own admission, is stupid enough to smart off to his boss publicly, making things worse.

                          Tact - not just for upholstery...

                          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                          My Personal Blog

                          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                            There is no basis for this assertion.

                            I think this assertion is baseless.

                            The assertion seems baseless to me.

                            Three different ways to say the same thing - and all three get different initial reactions. That's why.



                            If you expect Trump to be a jerk, why deliberately provoke him? If you work for him - which the NWS does - at least respect the office.

                            And only Sam, per his own admission, is stupid enough to smart off to his boss publicly, making things worse.

                            Tact - not just for upholstery...

                            It would be a matter of medical ethics and oath to inform patients that a phony Ebola threat was, in fact, phony. Whether that incurs the wrath of a distant superior is irrelevant to the ethical question.

                            I imagine that professional meteorologists covering a hurricane have a similar dedication to their wards and to their profession's ethical code.

                            --Sam
                            "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                              Politifact is not a credible source.
                              I'm all ears.
                              "If you believe, take the first step, it leads to Jesus Christ. If you don't believe, take the first step all the same, for you are bidden to take it. No one wants to know about your faith or unbelief, your orders are to perform the act of obedience on the spot. Then you will find yourself in the situation where faith becomes possible and where faith exists in the true sense of the word." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Sam View Post
                                It would be a matter of medical ethics and oath to inform patients that a phony Ebola threat was, in fact, phony. Whether that incurs the wrath of a distant superior is irrelevant to the ethical question.

                                I imagine that professional meteorologists covering a hurricane have a similar dedication to their wards and to their profession's ethical code.

                                --Sam
                                Talk sense, just once.

                                "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot


                                "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                                My Personal Blog

                                My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                                Comment

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