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The immediate future of EVs

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  • The immediate future of EVs

    As old Joe's Administration prepares to pass stricter EPA rules designed to force more Americans into EVs, it seems there is a growing push-back. The end of 2023 saw the sharpest drop in the sales of EVs ever, and while some saw this as something merely temporary, it appears to be going into 2024 causing a number of auto makers to start shifting away from manufacturing EVs and turning toward hybrids. Automakers such as Ford and General Motors, as well as Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin, are all scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.

    Source: The Electric Car Fiasco


    Many people are reluctant to pay more for a vehicle likely to totally stop functioning in common use, and much more expensive to repair.


    Donald Trump’s anodyne if overexcited comment that the U.S. auto industry would face a “bloodbath” if he’s not elected and doesn’t impose 50% or 100% tariffs on cars produced predictable results.

    “Don’t outsmart yourself,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) posted, and Joe Biden’s campaign promptly charged Trump with promising a “bloodbath” if he loses, without saying that he used a common metaphor and was talking about the auto industry.

    That’s a subject Team Biden is understandably touchy about, given the conspicuous fiasco of its electric vehicle policies.

    It’s summed up in a lengthy Wall Street Journal report on how a “dramatic societal shift to electric cars” had “overlooked an important constituency: the consumer.”

    Evidence is plentiful. Manufacturers have been cutting prices as dealers’ lots filled up with unsold electrics. Ford is halving its output of electric F-150 trucks in its Dearborn, Michigan, plant. General Motors dealers are pressing the company to reverse its strategy, cut EV production and build hybrids instead. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned of “notably lower” EV production.

    Expectations elsewhere went unmet. Hertz sold off 20,000 rental EVs at a loss of $245 million and fired its CEO, a Goldman Sachs alumnus. EV startup Fisker, which defaulted on $192 million in Obama administration loans, is reportedly preparing for bankruptcy. Apple is shutting down its multibillion-dollar electric car division.

    “Plans for an EV-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat” in Britain, France and Germany, the London-based Telegraph reported. “It looks like all those ‘well-paid green jobs’ are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated.”

    Liberals justify the $7,500 consumer subsidies for EVs as a way to reduce carbon emissions. But, of course, reductions depend on where the electricity, and the rare earths and metals in batteries, come from. Meanwhile the environmental pitch may have boosted sales among Democrats, but it also has resulted in low sales to Republicans.

    These attitudes correlate with geography. EVs may be practical to zip about in the mild weather of the Pacific Coast and over the short distances of the Northeast — Biden territory in 2020. But EV batteries run out of charge over long distances, when it’s freezing outside, or when you’ve got your air conditioning on — all common experiences in the South, Midwest and Rocky Mountain states, which Trump carried in 2016 and 2020.

    It’s not hard to see, although government projections seem to have missed it, that many people would be reluctant to pay more for a vehicle likely to totally stop functioning in common use, and much more expensive to repair.

    And irksome to charge. In the 1920s, the private sector built vast networks of gas stations capable of refueling a vehicle in five or 10 minutes. In the 2020s, the government has taken on the task of building electric charging stations, with predictable results. After more than two years, the $5 billion 2021 charging station program has produced exactly eight charging stations.

    In the marketplace, it’s clear the demand for electric vehicles is much smaller than that predicted by environmental enthusiasts and imposed on carmakers by the Biden administration. Toyota’s hybrid gasoline-and-electric vehicles, while less fashionable in certain quarters than battery-powered EVs, are rated as more reliable and just as green, and they are outselling the all-electrics.

    As the late economist Herbert Stein said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Projections for EV sales have fallen woefully short month after month. The Environmental Protection Agency projects EV sales will rise from 7.6% in 2023 to 67% in 2032, but the EPA’s tailpipe regulations, the tool used to raise EV sales, are not on track to do so.

    At least not without drastically cutting total auto production. Environmental nonprofit organizations may not mind that, but the United Auto Workers, which represents workers at Detroit’s Big Three but not at Tesla or foreign-based companies, does and has demanded the administration change policy.

    Which it has, sort of. The EPA is now announcing it won’t enforce EV sales requirements until 2030. But it still says it’s requiring two-thirds by 2032.

    As you may have noticed, there are three presidential elections between now and late 2032, when Biden will turn 90 and Trump 86. Team Biden is obviously fiddling with its failed EV policies in the hopes of smoothing over the differences between its environmentalist and union constituencies, Marin County, California, and Macomb County, Michigan. That might work, up through Election Day.

    Then, whoever wins, there will come something you might provocatively call a bloodbath. For an industry with large capital needs and long lead times, or for environmentalists determined to phase out vehicles that most consumers prefer and can afford — maybe for both.


    Source

    © Copyright Original Source



    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

  • #2
    Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
    As old Joe's Administration prepares to pass stricter EPA rules designed to force more Americans into EVs, it seems there is a growing push-back. The end of 2023 saw the sharpest drop in the sales of EVs ever, and while some saw this as something merely temporary, it appears to be going into 2024 causing a number of auto makers to start shifting away from manufacturing EVs and turning toward hybrids. Automakers such as Ford and General Motors, as well as Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin, are all scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.

    Source: The Electric Car Fiasco


    Many people are reluctant to pay more for a vehicle likely to totally stop functioning in common use, and much more expensive to repair.


    Donald Trump’s anodyne if overexcited comment that the U.S. auto industry would face a “bloodbath” if he’s not elected and doesn’t impose 50% or 100% tariffs on cars produced predictable results.

    “Don’t outsmart yourself,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) posted, and Joe Biden’s campaign promptly charged Trump with promising a “bloodbath” if he loses, without saying that he used a common metaphor and was talking about the auto industry.

    That’s a subject Team Biden is understandably touchy about, given the conspicuous fiasco of its electric vehicle policies.

    It’s summed up in a lengthy Wall Street Journal report on how a “dramatic societal shift to electric cars” had “overlooked an important constituency: the consumer.”

    Evidence is plentiful. Manufacturers have been cutting prices as dealers’ lots filled up with unsold electrics. Ford is halving its output of electric F-150 trucks in its Dearborn, Michigan, plant. General Motors dealers are pressing the company to reverse its strategy, cut EV production and build hybrids instead. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned of “notably lower” EV production.

    Expectations elsewhere went unmet. Hertz sold off 20,000 rental EVs at a loss of $245 million and fired its CEO, a Goldman Sachs alumnus. EV startup Fisker, which defaulted on $192 million in Obama administration loans, is reportedly preparing for bankruptcy. Apple is shutting down its multibillion-dollar electric car division.

    “Plans for an EV-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat” in Britain, France and Germany, the London-based Telegraph reported. “It looks like all those ‘well-paid green jobs’ are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated.”

    Liberals justify the $7,500 consumer subsidies for EVs as a way to reduce carbon emissions. But, of course, reductions depend on where the electricity, and the rare earths and metals in batteries, come from. Meanwhile the environmental pitch may have boosted sales among Democrats, but it also has resulted in low sales to Republicans.

    These attitudes correlate with geography. EVs may be practical to zip about in the mild weather of the Pacific Coast and over the short distances of the Northeast — Biden territory in 2020. But EV batteries run out of charge over long distances, when it’s freezing outside, or when you’ve got your air conditioning on — all common experiences in the South, Midwest and Rocky Mountain states, which Trump carried in 2016 and 2020.

    It’s not hard to see, although government projections seem to have missed it, that many people would be reluctant to pay more for a vehicle likely to totally stop functioning in common use, and much more expensive to repair.

    And irksome to charge. In the 1920s, the private sector built vast networks of gas stations capable of refueling a vehicle in five or 10 minutes. In the 2020s, the government has taken on the task of building electric charging stations, with predictable results. After more than two years, the $5 billion 2021 charging station program has produced exactly eight charging stations.

    In the marketplace, it’s clear the demand for electric vehicles is much smaller than that predicted by environmental enthusiasts and imposed on carmakers by the Biden administration. Toyota’s hybrid gasoline-and-electric vehicles, while less fashionable in certain quarters than battery-powered EVs, are rated as more reliable and just as green, and they are outselling the all-electrics.

    As the late economist Herbert Stein said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Projections for EV sales have fallen woefully short month after month. The Environmental Protection Agency projects EV sales will rise from 7.6% in 2023 to 67% in 2032, but the EPA’s tailpipe regulations, the tool used to raise EV sales, are not on track to do so.

    At least not without drastically cutting total auto production. Environmental nonprofit organizations may not mind that, but the United Auto Workers, which represents workers at Detroit’s Big Three but not at Tesla or foreign-based companies, does and has demanded the administration change policy.

    Which it has, sort of. The EPA is now announcing it won’t enforce EV sales requirements until 2030. But it still says it’s requiring two-thirds by 2032.

    As you may have noticed, there are three presidential elections between now and late 2032, when Biden will turn 90 and Trump 86. Team Biden is obviously fiddling with its failed EV policies in the hopes of smoothing over the differences between its environmentalist and union constituencies, Marin County, California, and Macomb County, Michigan. That might work, up through Election Day.

    Then, whoever wins, there will come something you might provocatively call a bloodbath. For an industry with large capital needs and long lead times, or for environmentalists determined to phase out vehicles that most consumers prefer and can afford — maybe for both.


    Source

    © Copyright Original Source

    LOL. Checked the source. Was not disappointed:

    IMG_1695.jpeg

    Comment


    • #3
      We have enough issues with lack of range of EVs in the densely populated and densely infrastructured UK. I can't imagine EVs being even remotely practical in the US.

      "Howdy, Hank. Here's your new van - I'll show you how to plug it into your charging point. Have fun, but be careful - it only has a 40 mile range and there aren't any other charging points within 50 miles of here..."
      Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

      MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
      MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

      seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Roy View Post
        We have enough issues with lack of range of EVs in the densely populated and densely infrastructured UK. I can't imagine EVs being even remotely practical in the US.

        "Howdy, Hank. Here's your new van - I'll show you how to plug it into your charging point. Have fun, but be careful - it only has a 40 mile range and there aren't any other charging points within 50 miles of here..."
        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...cord-291-miles

        US Electric Cars Set Record With Almost 300-Mile Average Range
        The average range for an EV in the US has quadrupled since 2011, and is today a third higher than the average globally.


        EV range is between 250 and 300 miles, which extends with regenerative braking.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by whag View Post

          LOL. Checked the source. Was not disappointed:

          IMG_1695.jpeg
          The author has a very good reputation who, while conservative, is taken seriously by both sides of the aisle.

          But acknowledging that might force you to look at what has been said not just by him but auto industry insiders for the past couple of years, and you don't want to have to do that do you?

          I'm always still in trouble again

          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
          "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Roy View Post
            We have enough issues with lack of range of EVs in the densely populated and densely infrastructured UK. I can't imagine EVs being even remotely practical in the US.

            "Howdy, Hank. Here's your new van - I'll show you how to plug it into your charging point. Have fun, but be careful - it only has a 40 mile range and there aren't any other charging points within 50 miles of here..."
            As many wags have noted, when you run out of power nobody can simply go fetch a can of electricity to refuel it.

            One of the things supporters always point to is that they are busy building the infrastructure to support it.

            First, might it not be a good idea to wait until it can catch up before starting to mandate them?

            Second, the fact that we've already sunk $5,000,000,000 into it and in two years have seen a whole eight charging stations built during that time does not exactly instill confidence that it will be ready any time soon.



            I'm always still in trouble again

            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Roy View Post
              We have enough issues with lack of range of EVs in the densely populated and densely infrastructured UK. I can't imagine EVs being even remotely practical in the US.

              "Howdy, Hank. Here's your new van - I'll show you how to plug it into your charging point. Have fun, but be careful - it only has a 40 mile range and there aren't any other charging points within 50 miles of here..."
              Not to mention the several weeks of -40 temps we had here this winter, and all the charging stations (not that there are many) were full of cars that wouldn't charge because the batteries froze. And the cold shortens the distance they can go, too.


              Securely anchored to the Rock amid every storm of trial, testing or tribulation.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                The author has a very good reputation who, while conservative, is taken seriously by both sides of the aisle.

                But acknowledging that might force you to look at what has been said not just by him but auto industry insiders for the past couple of years, and you don't want to have to do that do you?
                That was a hard fail. Now we know you read a rag called *ahem* The Patriot Post.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by whag View Post

                  That was a hard fail. Now we know you read a rag called *ahem* The Patriot Post.
                  How do you say you have nothing without ever having to say that you have nothing?

                  I'm always still in trouble again

                  "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                  "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                  "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                    How do you say you have nothing without ever having to say that you have nothing?
                    What you should have done is look for another piece with links rather than do a bad MM impression. No one wants to go googling a Gish Gallop of claims. At the very least, I’ve made you reconsider the efficacy of launching out the gate with a source that doesn’t link to its sources. That means it’s a wanting periodical.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post

                      Second, the fact that we've already sunk $5,000,000,000 into it and in two years have seen a whole eight charging stations built during that time does not exactly instill confidence that it will be ready any time soon.
                      He said exactly “exactly eight charging stations.” Bold!

                      IMG_1703.jpeg
                      142,000 - 118,000 =/= 8

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I think that if the Democrats would stop trying to push EVs as the "solution to pollution" - and just let auto manufacturers market them as the next evolution in automobiles: faster, more efficient, smarter, etc. then people would naturally want to buy them once the price goes down and the infrastructure to recharge is in place. But by trying to shove them down people's throats, and integrating them as part of the Liberal's "New Green Deal" they are causing a gag reflex action among conservatives and turning people against EVs.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by whag View Post

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...cord-291-miles

                          US Electric Cars Set Record With Almost 300-Mile Average Range
                          The average range for an EV in the US has quadrupled since 2011, and is today a third higher than the average globally.


                          EV range is between 250 and 300 miles, which extends with regenerative braking.
                          That's under ideal conditions. Real world range is considerably less.
                          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                          Than a fool in the eyes of God


                          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                            That's under ideal conditions. Real world range is considerably less.
                            That’s true, according to Consumer Reports that tested three models:

                            IMG_1706.jpeg

                            That means in very cold weather, you be able to travel more than the average daily distance with the ability to refuel for free. That’s why Elon Musk, China, and the rest of the world have invested/are investing in EV: because there’s a market for vehicles that can travel more than the average daily distance and refuel for free.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              I think that if the Democrats would stop trying to push EVs as the "solution to pollution" - and just let auto manufacturers market them as the next evolution in automobiles: faster, more efficient, smarter, etc. then people would naturally want to buy them once the price goes down and the infrastructure to recharge is in place. But by trying to shove them down people's throats, and integrating them as part of the Liberal's "New Green Deal" they are causing a gag reflex action among conservatives and turning people against EVs.



                              Surveys show Tesla shoppers are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans.

                              Surveys by research firm Morning Consult show that in January about 22% of Democrats were considering buying a Tesla, while 17% of Republicans were looking to purchase one. And that gap has been closing — Republican consideration of buying a Tesla has risen about 3 percentage points just since December’s survey. And Republicans are slightly more likely to trust the Tesla brand, 27% compared to 25% among Democrats.

                              “The customer base is not significantly skewed towards Democrats,” said Lisa Whalen, Morning Consult’s auto and mobility analyst.

                              New vehicle registration data from IHS Markit suggest that “blue” states - those that voted for Biden over Donald Trump - are more likely to have a higher share of EVs than “red” states. But many of those red states are very rural and have a high percentage of pickup truck registrations, and EV pickups are still virtually nonexistant. Many of the more rural blue states also have low EV adoption rates. And some of the blue states have better incentives for EV buyers, such as state tax credits or the ability to drive in car pool lanes on highways.

                              Data from Strategic Vision, which has surveyed hundreds of thousands of car buyers, shows that since 2019, 38% of Tesla buyers have identified themselves as Democrats, and 30% have said they’re Republicans. That’s slightly less “liberal” than EV buyers overall, who skew 41% Democratic to 27% Republican.



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