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The Coming Paradigm Shift on Climate

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  • Originally posted by lao tzu View Post
    Thanks, Sparko!

    I apologize to everyone for the aggressive replies. Things are blown up higher than sideways at work right now, and I'm afraid I brought some of that frustration back to TWeb.

    Gonna have to be scarce around these parts for the next couple of months. Just lurking and s/b. Y'all be excellent to each other!

    As ever, Jesse
    Even when we disagree, Jesse, I still consider you a good person and a friend. I hope things go better for you in your work. I know how frustrating that can be.
    Last edited by Sparko; 07-13-2015, 08:35 AM.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      Even when we disagree, Jesse, I still consider you a good person and a friend. I hope things go better for you in your work. I know how frustrating that can be.
      You, I don't like. You're a poopie-head.
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        You, I don't like. You're a poopie-head.
        yeah yeah.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
          You, I don't like. You're a poopie-head.
          Nobody Everybody likes Sparko.
          I DENOUNCE DONALD J. TRUMP AND ALL HIS IMMORAL ACTS.

          Comment


          • Dear Taoist,

            How are we supposed to have a knock down, drag out if you insist on being nice?!?!?!


            Seriously, apology accepted and I extend my own for coming back so strong.


            Now, if we can just get you to sing 'Kum Bah Ya'!
            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

            My Personal Blog

            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

            Quill Sword

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Zymologist View Post
              Nobody Everybody likes Sparko.
              you all love to hate on me!

              Comment


              • Global Warming Hysteria

                From John Hinderaker at Powerline:
                GLOBAL WARMING HYSTERIA: A RETROSPECTIVE

                At the Telegraph, Christopher Booker provides a succinct narrative of the rise and fall of global warming alarmism:
                When future generations come to look back on the alarm over global warming that seized the world towards the end of the 20th century, much will puzzle them as to how such a scare could have arisen. They will wonder why there was such a panic over a 0.4 per cent rise in global temperatures between 1975 and 1998, when similar rises between 1860 and 1880 and 1910 and 1940 had given no cause for concern. They will see these modest rises as just part of a general warming that began at the start of the 19th century, as the world emerged from the Little Ice Age, when the Earth had grown cooler for 400 years.

                They will be struck by the extent to which this scare relied on the projections of computer models, which then proved to be hopelessly wrong when, in the years after 1998, their predicted rise in temperature came virtually to a halt. But in particular they will be amazed by the almost religious reverence accorded to that strange body, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which by then will be recognised as having never really been a scientific body at all, but a political pressure group.

                Booker notes how the IPCC’s Summaries for Policymakers–the only parts of the IPCC’s reports that journalists read–have been wholly unscientific, political documents:
                Five times between 1990 and 2014 the IPCC published three massive volumes of technical reports – another emerged last week – and each time we saw the same pattern. Each was supposedly based on thousands of scientific studies, many funded to find evidence to support the received view that man-made climate change was threatening the world with disaster – hurricanes, floods, droughts, melting ice, rising sea levels and the rest. But each time what caught the headlines was a brief “Summary for Policymakers”, carefully crafted by governments and a few committed scientists to hype up the scare by going much further than was justified by the thousands of pages in the technical reports themselves.

                Each time it would emerge just how shamelessly these Summaries had distorted the actual evidence, picking out the scary bits, which themselves often turned out not to have been based on proper science at all. The most glaring example was the IPCC’s 2007 report, which hit the headlines with those wildly alarmist predictions that the Himalayan glaciers might all be gone by 2035; that global warming could halve African crop yields by 2050; that droughts would destroy 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest. Not until 2010 did some of us manage to show that each of these predictions, and many more, came not from genuine scientific studies but from scaremongering propaganda produced by green activists and lobby groups (shown by one exhaustive analysis to make up nearly a third of all the IPCC’s sources).

                The warmmongers’ con game continues, but most people aren’t falling for it. If Gallup is to be believed, global warming is low on the list of Americans’ environmental concerns. That’s a good thing: the Democrats had hoped to ram cap and trade through Congress on the basis of hysterical predictions, and then, when those predictions didn’t come true, claim credit for having forestalled disaster. But that hope has been frustrated, and the models’ predictions have been falsified with no faux contribution from statist environmental policies.

                Comment


                • I notice that when we have a cold winter, the AGW climatologists, politicians and proponents say that doesn't count. It is just an anomaly, and we can't judge by just one or two seasons but have to go by longer trends. But as soon as we have rough weather in the spring and summer, then it is blamed on global warming and given as evidence of how much we need to "fix" the problem before we destroy the planet.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                    I notice that when we have a cold winter, the AGW climatologists, politicians and proponents say that doesn't count. It is just an anomaly, and we can't judge by just one or two seasons but have to go by longer trends. But as soon as we have rough weather in the spring and summer, then it is blamed on global warming and given as evidence of how much we need to "fix" the problem before we destroy the planet.
                    But both points are correct.

                    Trend ISN'T determined by isolated cool seasons; and the changes to climate as our planet heats up are causing all kinds of issues with "rough weather" amongst other things.

                    Ironically, global warming is ALSO a factor in (locally) cold winters! A major cause of freezing winters in the Eastern USA is "blocking" events with a weaker jet stream, which allows cold weather from the North to penetrate further South than usual, while simultaneously giving hotter conditions elsewhere. You may note that some of the extreme cold winters in the East USA have been at the same time as hotter conditions in California. It is because the jet stream is weaker and more "loopy" than usual, looping up to the north and then crossing down though the middle of the continental USA, to give hot conditions in the west and cold in the east; the same pattern can also loop in the opposite direction to bring cold conditions in the west and hot in the east.

                    Climate change caused by heating of the planet isn't just everything getting warmer. There are all kinds of consequences, which are really REALLY hard to anticipate; and they are happening as we speak.

                    Cheers -- sylas

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by sylas View Post
                      But both points are correct.

                      Trend ISN'T determined by isolated cool seasons; and the changes to climate as our planet heats up are causing all kinds of issues with "rough weather" amongst other things.

                      Ironically, global warming is ALSO a factor in (locally) cold winters! A major cause of freezing winters in the Eastern USA is "blocking" events with a weaker jet stream, which allows cold weather from the North to penetrate further South than usual, while simultaneously giving hotter conditions elsewhere. You may note that some of the extreme cold winters in the East USA have been at the same time as hotter conditions in California. It is because the jet stream is weaker and more "loopy" than usual, looping up to the north and then crossing down though the middle of the continental USA, to give hot conditions in the west and cold in the east; the same pattern can also loop in the opposite direction to bring cold conditions in the west and hot in the east.

                      Climate change caused by heating of the planet isn't just everything getting warmer. There are all kinds of consequences, which are really REALLY hard to anticipate; and they are happening as we speak.

                      Cheers -- sylas
                      A noble effort, but that's not what these guys were predicting:

                      1988 Rob Reiss asked official Climate Scientist Dr. James Hansen how the greenhouse effect was likely to affect the neighborhood below Hansen’s office in NYC in the next 20 years, whereupon Climate scientist James Hansen issues this prediction, to be fullfilled in 20 years, which is to say, doom by 2008: “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….There will be more police cars….[since] you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.

                      Michael Oppenheimer, 1990, The Environmental Defense Fund: “By 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…”(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers…The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.”

                      June 8, 1972, Christian Science Monitor: “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.”

                      June 2008, Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs: “you could potentially sail, kayak, or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice…is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.” In the summer of 2008 he makes a prediction for the summer of 2008! Careless of him. Shortly after this prediction was made, a Russian icebreaker was trapped in the ice of the Northwest Passage for a week. The state of the Northwest passage today, in 2014, is roughly the same as it was in 1921. Some years you can sail through, some years you cannot, and most years if you try it, there is a high risk of getting stuck.

                      January 2000 Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund commenting (in a NY Times interview) on the mild winters in New York City: “But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.”

                      June 30, 1989, Associated Press: U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER, SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP–entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos,” said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He added that governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect. I heard the exact same prediction last night on the television (in 2014), entire nations disappearing, hordes of eco refugees creating political instability, with the date for doomsday changed from 2000 to 2030.

                      Sept 19, 1989, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: “New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.”

                      December 5, 1989, Dallas Morning News: “Some predictions for the next decade are not difficult to make…Americans may see the ’80s migration to the Sun Belt reverse as a global warming trend rekindles interest in cooler climates.”

                      Good bye winter. Never again snow?” Spiegel, 1 April 2000

                      “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
                      David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000

                      Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
                      Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008

                      “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”
                      David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004

                      “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”
                      Guardian, 26 August 2006.

                      “The global temperature will increase every year by 0.2°C”
                      Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, January 15, 2007

                      “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry. It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.
                      David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
                      February 14, 2004

                      Edward Goldsmith, 1991, (5000 Days to Save the Planet): “By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle….Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live…At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.”

                      April 22, 1990 ABC, The Miracle Planet: “I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left–we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.

                      March 29, 2001, CNN: “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”

                      1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist: “It is now pretty clearly agreed that CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”

                      2005, Andrew Simms, policy director of the New Economics Foundation: “Scholars are predicting that 50 million people worldwide will be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes.” I heard on the television last night (2014) this exact same prediction with the date changed from 2010 to 2020

                      Oct 20, 2009, Gordon Brown UK Prime Minister (referring to the Copenhagen climate conference): “World leaders have 50 days to save the Earth from irreversible global warming.
                      In short, we're not exactly dealing with honest brokers here.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by sylas View Post
                        But both points are correct.

                        Trend ISN'T determined by isolated cool seasons; and the changes to climate as our planet heats up are causing all kinds of issues with "rough weather" amongst other things.

                        Ironically, global warming is ALSO a factor in (locally) cold winters! A major cause of freezing winters in the Eastern USA is "blocking" events with a weaker jet stream, which allows cold weather from the North to penetrate further South than usual, while simultaneously giving hotter conditions elsewhere. You may note that some of the extreme cold winters in the East USA have been at the same time as hotter conditions in California. It is because the jet stream is weaker and more "loopy" than usual, looping up to the north and then crossing down though the middle of the continental USA, to give hot conditions in the west and cold in the east; the same pattern can also loop in the opposite direction to bring cold conditions in the west and hot in the east.

                        Climate change caused by heating of the planet isn't just everything getting warmer. There are all kinds of consequences, which are really REALLY hard to anticipate; and they are happening as we speak.

                        Cheers -- sylas
                        That may or may not be so, but my point was that "Climate Change" is more about marketing and politics than science. The climatologists and news articles are all silent when the evidence seems to look bad for global warming and yet if the weather does heat up and cause storms and rough weather, then they loudly scream "the sky is falling" and use the current weather to scare people into supporting AGW and related political agendas. It's all about marketing.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Epoetker View Post
                          A noble effort, but that's not what these guys were predicting:



                          In short, we're not exactly dealing with honest brokers here.
                          Ever notice how much the climatologists sound like the "end is nigh, Jesus is coming back on Tuesday" guys like Harold Camping?

                          Comment


                          • It's almost EASTER and my house was CHILLY this morning! Send me some global warming!!!!
                            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              That may or may not be so, but my point was that "Climate Change" is more about marketing and politics than science. The climatologists and news articles are all silent when the evidence seems to look bad for global warming and yet if the weather does heat up and cause storms and rough weather, then they loudly scream "the sky is falling" and use the current weather to scare people into supporting AGW and related political agendas. It's all about marketing.
                              I don't agree.

                              The issues that interests me most are simply the scientific questions related to climate. The problem I see here and would like to address is what actually is good and bad as evidence. It's a scientific question.

                              So, for example, a cold winter. This really and truly isn't good evidence against global warming. Most crucially because cold winters are LOCAL; not global -- and in a heating planet you really do get increasing variation and increasing extremes in weather as the energy in the total system continues to increase. Winter isn't a "global" phenomenon in any case. But finding a cold month in global temperature measurements isn't any kind of evidence against warming either, because of the difference between data points and trends.

                              And do note: there really and truly hasn't been a cold month this century, in the sense of a month colder than a baseline mean measured over 1961-1990. That's using the HadCRUT dataset. Any other data set will give roughly similar results. The heating up of the planet is basic data. Individual months continue to be (globally) hotter and colder than other months, but monthly data still shows a definite trend, and global monthly temperatures this century are without any exception hotter than the means over recent decades.

                              That isn't marketing. It's data. It's observed measurement of heating up of the planet. So when people pick up a cold winter and think it is evidence against global warming, they are just wrong. They are making statements that don't measure up. It's a typically nonsense claim by people who don't actually have any level of understanding of the data, or the evidence. It's isn't marketing to point out the errors. It's just getting the basic information right.

                              The consequences for weather as climate gets warmer and warmer are really hard to predict. Much harder than predicting what averages are going to do. The planet is heating up; that's basic physics and measurement. The difficult questions are in details. By and large, in a hotter planet there is more energy and more extremes in weather. Predicting how that pans out more specifically is hard; but since the planet *is* heating; and since humanity still has collectively a big impact on how much, it's basic economic common sense to look seriously at risks and possible consequences of various choices open to us (collectively). Weather extremes DO confirm the general detail -- which is scientifically solid -- that we expect increasing weather extremes in a heating planet.

                              It's not marketing. It's basic science, in the purest sense of doing our best collectively to figure out the complexities of the natural world. What the data, the evidence, the measurements and the science shows consistently is the message of so-called "alarmists". You are selling this way WAY short to think of it as "marketing". It is no such thing. It's just looking at the consequences of changes we have made and are making to the atmosphere.

                              Cheers -- sylas

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by sylas View Post
                                I don't agree.
                                The planet is heating up; that's basic physics and measurement. The difficult questions are in details. By and large, in a hotter planet there is more energy and more extremes in weather. Predicting how that pans out more specifically is hard; but since the planet *is* heating; and since humanity still has collectively a big impact on how much, it's basic economic common sense to look seriously at risks and possible consequences of various choices open to us (collectively). Weather extremes DO confirm the general detail -- which is scientifically solid -- that we expect increasing weather extremes in a heating planet.

                                Cheers -- sylas

                                Of course it is heating up, even before the human machines started appearing. Isn't there was an ice age?

                                Comment

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