Possible Trump Indictment

[CivilDiscourse]

The Democrats want to face Trump so much that they've pulled out all stops trying to make him ineligible.

Yeah. That doesn't wash.

That's because liberals aren't a monolithic group. There will be a group that hates him so much they'll do ANYTHING to lock him up/prevent him from running, and then there's a group that feel he's easier to beat, so they want him to run.

[Machinist]

This is a campaign finance violations case. The crime is not the affair. It's the money paid, who paid it, and whether it was paid for the purpose of helping him win an election.

Even if he did pay her to shut up, how could it be proven that Trumps intent was to protect his campaign? Would it have hurt his campaign? That would be difficult to prove. All he has to do is say he paid her off to shut her up, period. Nothing more. It had nothing to do with his campaign. You might roll your eyes at that, which is understandable. It does look like he may have done that with such an intent, but won't they have to prove intent? It would seem that it would hinge on Trumps testimony alone whether or not his intent was to keep his campaign unblemished.

[Mountain Man]

I can see giving one's attorney a great deal of latitude in dealing with run-of-the-mill legal matters, but hushing a witness before an election? No way. That had to be Trump's decision. Now it's quite possible it was Cohen's decision to use campaign money to hush her up, thinking he could move money around and it not be detected.

Admittedly, the report I linked to doesn't go into any great deal, so I'm not sure to what extent Cohen might have acted alone.

[rogue06]

That's because liberals aren't a monolithic group. There will be a group that hates him so much they'll do ANYTHING to lock him up/prevent him from running, and then there's a group that feel he's easier to beat, so they want him to run.

I'd say that the latter is a tiny minority.

[CivilDiscourse]

Yesterday on MSNBC's Morning Joe they didn't seem all that happy about the pending indictment. You'd think they'd be getting ready to drop balloons & confetti in celebration. But everyone on their panel, save Al Sharpton (who the co-host, Mika Brzezinski, gave the look you reserve for your friend when he says something particularly stupid) think this is a weak case which Trump will walk away from. I think they feared this was only going to make him a stronger candidate.

No real surprise though. Back when the whole Stormy Daniels thing was a story you had legal experts of all types agreeing that this is a very difficult case to get a conviction on. Basically, all the accused has to say is something along the lines of that he wanted to spare his family the humiliation of a scandal. Unless they can prove that wasn't the motive (good luck), that pretty much shuts it down.

The danger is, if you bring the wrong case, at the wrong time, you bolster his "witch hunt" claims, and perhaps boost his support. This case has alot of uncertainty revolving around it, especially given the FCC and DOJ both declined to do anything with it. So, to go back to the old saying "If you are going to strike at a king, you must kill him" and this case has a decent chance of missing.

[rogue06]

Even if he did pay her to shut up, how could it be proven that Trumps intent was to protect his campaign? Would it have hurt his campaign? That would be difficult to prove. All he has to do is say he paid her off to shut her up, period. Nothing more. It had nothing to do with his campaign. You might roll your eyes at that, which is understandable. It does look like he may have done that with such an intent, but won't they have to prove intent? It would seem that it would hinge on Trumps testimony alone whether or not his intent was to keep his campaign unblemished.

All he has to do is say it was to protect his family from humiliation, preserve his marriage, or something along those lines. If the prosecutor cannot show that wasn't the motive, then the case falls apart.

[rogue06]

The danger is, if you bring the wrong case, at the wrong time, you bolster his "witch hunt" claims, and perhaps boost his support. This case has alot of uncertainty revolving around it, especially given the FCC and DOJ both declined to do anything with it. So, to go back to the old saying "If you are going to strike at a king, you must kill him" and this case has a decent chance of missing.

Exactly. And to misuse that adage from Nietzsche, what doesn't kill him will only make him stronger. But this prosecutor pretty much ran on the promise of indicting Trump so they're stuck with it.

[Machinist]

All he has to do is say it was to protect his family from humiliation, preserve his marriage, or something along those lines. If the prosecutor cannot show that wasn't the motive, then the case falls apart.

Like lifting a finger. I wonder if Bragg is feely froggy today.

[Sparko]

No, it's not what it is. They want Trump in the news and playing the martyr like he is, because they want him to be the nominee as it is an easy win if he is.

Then they are wrong. Just about anyone will be able to beat Biden at this point, and while there are many republicans like me who don't want Trump as POTUS again, if he wins the primary and our choices are Biden or Trump, guess who we will vote for? Biden has run the country into the ground.

[Sparko]

I've got to say, that after the violent events of Jan 6, Trump now once again calling for serious protests, without going to any effort at all to make it really really really clear that he means peaceful and non-violent protests, is pretty awful.

If that's not a crime, it sure should be. He incited a violent protest once. Now he's trying to do it again.

I actually agree. I think one of the things Democrats would like is for this to cause another January 6 type protest so they can blame Trump. Then they would drop the phony charges and charge him with inciting a riot. If Trump isn't careful he will be playing into their hands.

[Sparko]

Although, the best-case scenario for the Democrats would actually be that Trump loses the primary and then feels so slighted he runs as an Independent, which would essentially guarantee a Democratic victory.

^That.

But the more they martyr Trump with all of these nutty accusations, the more likely he will win the primary. Their antics are really ticking off the GOP and solidifying Trump's base. Their best tactic would be to ignore Trump and work in the background to prop up Desantis. Then Trump would run as an Independent and draw votes away from Desantis allowing Biden to win.

[rogue06]

^That.

But the more they martyr Trump with all of these nutty accusations, the more likely he will win the primary. Their antics are really ticking off the GOP and solidifying Trump's base. Their best tactic would be to ignore Trump and work in the background to prop up Desantis. Then Trump would run as an Independent and draw votes away from Desantis allowing Biden to win.

I have a feeling that DeSantis has peaked too soon.

[Sparko]

I have a feeling that DeSantis has peaked too soon.

Regardless, Trump seemed to have chosen him as his arch-opponent and hates him, so if Desantis becomes the GOP primary, you can almost guarantee Trump running as an independent and spending more time attacking Desantis than Biden. Trump's supporters would follow him and siphon votes away from Desantis letting Biden win. Unless Trump could pull enough votes away from Desantis to win himself.

[rogue06]

Regardless, Trump seemed to have chosen him as his arch-opponent and hates him, so if Desantis becomes the GOP primary, you can almost guarantee Trump running as an independent and spending more time attacking Desantis than Biden. Trump's supporters would follow him and siphon votes away from Desantis letting Biden win. Unless Trump could pull enough votes away from Desantis to win himself.

My point is that DeSantis may very well not be Trump's chief rival.

[Sparko]

My point is that DeSantis may very well not be Trump's chief rival.

That's why I said the democrat's efforts might be put to better use to make sure he IS the GOP nominee. That would automatically cause Trump to run as an independent and waste all his energy on DeSantis and siphon votes away from him.