Why Haven't We Shot Down Spy Balloon?

[Gondwanaland]

Probably the CIA or NSA, but even the FBI, DEA, and DHS are members of the intelligence community.

At first they didn't even know they were balloons, and didn't know they were spy balloons from China until after Trump left office.

So again, they didn't actually detect anything (they don't really have much for actual radar in such locations anyway - that would be the military and FAA - so the 'we detected it not the military' thing was fishy to begin with, notwithstanding the withholding of that info from the military and the president), they found it out later after Trump from their sources/spies/surveillance in China, etc..

[Stoic]

And between all of them, they probably employ 200,000 people making mostly six-figure salaries, and "they didn't even know they were balloons." The end is near.

It turns out that a lot of UAPs have been determined to be balloons. There are a number of plausible reasons as to why they were originally unidentified. (Distance from the observer, briefness of the observation, and viewing conditions being the ones that immediately come to mind.)

UAP Reporting

The ODNI preliminary assessment on UAP discussed 144 UAP reports and had an information cut-off date of 05 March 2021. Since then, AARO received a total of 247 new UAP reports. An additional 119 UAP reports on events that occurred before 05 March 2021, but were not included in the preliminary assessment, have been discovered or reported after the preliminary assessment’s time period. These 366 additional reports, when combined with the 144 reports identified in the preliminary assessment, bring the total UAP reports catalogued to date to 510.

Since its establishment in July 2022, AARO has formulated and started to leverage a robust analytic process against identified UAP reporting. Once completed, AARO’s final analytic findings will be available in their quarterly reports to policymakers. AARO’s initial analysis and characterization of the 366 newly-identified reports, informed by a multi-agency process, judged more than half as exhibiting unremarkable characteristics:

26 characterized as Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) or UAS-like entities;
163 characterized as balloon or balloon-like entities; and
6 attributed to clutter.

Initial characterization does not mean positively resolved or unidentified. This initial characterization better enables AARO and ODNI to efficiently and effectively leverage resources against the remaining 171 uncharacterized and unattributed UAP reports. Some of these uncharacterized UAP appear to have demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities, and require further analysis.

The majority of new UAP reporting originates from U.S. Navy and U.S. Air Force aviators and operators who witnessed UAP during the course of their operational duties and reported the events to the UAPTF or AARO through official channels. Regardless of the collection or reporting method, many reports lack enough detailed data to enable attribution of UAP with high certainty.

source

[Stoic]

UAPs are spotted by military personnel, you dimwit -- i.e. aircraft pilots, military personnel aboard ships, etc. I'm not sure if your source pointed that out because it has a paywall. But other outlets are apparently smart enough to acknowledge such an obvious fact...

The U.S. intelligence community's review of UFO incidents reported by U.S. military personnel in recent years played a role in the detection of China's fleet of surveillance balloons, according to a U.S. official.

But who reported it doesn't changed the fact that every official, named and unnamed, initially claimed they were "undetected" by Trump's admin at first. That's a huge difference from "unidentified."

Spin, stoic, spin.

Okay, so they were detected, but not by NORAD. What do you think pilots do when they see a UAP? I don't think "report it to the president" is high on the list.

[seanD]

Okay, so they were detected, but not by NORAD. What do you think pilots do when they see a UAP? I don't think "report it to the president" is high on the list.

Nice goalpost moving, shill. You said it went undetected by US military. Then when you were proven wrong, you switch to NORAD, because you're a slimeball.

They report it to their military COs. I'm not even in the military and I can figure that out. How high the chain of command it goes I have no idea. It depends on how it's spotted I suppose. By "military personnel" I imagine it includes military personnel sightings, radar sightings, and possibly even civilian sightings that are reported to the military. Likely this includes chatter on the radios that is recorded. A report is filed, hence the documentation and data I assume they had to reexamine.

[Gondwanaland]

Okay, so they were detected, but not by NORAD. What do you think pilots do when they see a UAP? I don't think "report it to the president" is high on the list.

1. NORAD is military, literally headquartered at the AFB here in Colorado, and headed by the USAF and RCAF
2. you claimed they weren't detected.

[Stoic]

Nice goalpost moving, shill. You said it went undetected by US military. Then when you were proven wrong, you switch to NORAD, because you're a slimeball.

I only said it because Politico (and some unnamed official) said it. (And the unnamed official may have made the same mistake that Politico did.)

Politico:

The military did not detect previous flights of Chinese spy balloons over the U.S. that took place during the Trump administration, a top general said Monday, due to a “gap” in the Defense Department’s ability to track certain airborne objects.

Gen. Glen VanHerck, head of North American Aerospace Defense Command, cited the issue as the reason that at least three spy balloon flights were not briefed to senior Trump officials at the time.

Turns out the actual quote of VanHerck was, once again, a bit ambiguous:

“So those balloons, so every day as a NORAD commander it’s my responsibility to detect threats to North America,” he told reporters at the Pentagon. “I will tell you that we did not detect those threats. And that’s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out. But I don’t want to go into further detail.”

He added that the intelligence community later determined the flights had occurred using “additional means of collection.”

They report it to their military COs. I'm not even in the military and I can figure that out. How high the chain of command it goes I have no idea. It depends on how it's spotted I suppose. By "military personnel" I imagine it includes military personnel sightings, radar sightings, and possibly even civilian sightings that are reported to the military. Likely this includes chatter on the radios that is recorded. A report is filed, hence the documentation and data I assume they had to reexamine.

Eventually it gets to the UAPTF (UAP Task Force) or AARO (All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office). Both of those are in the DoD. But it isn't brought to the president's attention unless they can figure out what it is.

Which answers an earlier post of yours:

You just said (in fact emphasized it here multiple times) you accept the theory that they had records of this information they could search and recall. If they have records, then someone in the DoD obviously knew the crafts were there, yet didn't bother notifying the president or any intelligence official in his admin at the time. And if they knew these crafts were from China (and I see no reason not to think that) makes that implication even worse.

But now you are quibbling about whether a military pilot reporting a UAP that is much later identified as a Chinese spy balloon precludes officials from saying that the spy balloon was undetected by the military.

[Stoic]

1. NORAD is military, literally headquartered at the AFB here in Colorado, and headed by the USAF and RCAF

Which may explain why Politico mistook "we didn't detect it" from the head of NORAD to mean that the military didn't detect it.

2. you claimed they weren't detected.

Fog of early reports.

If someone had said "those early spy balloons were detected by the military, but not reported to the president until much later", and then you found out that the spy balloons were reported by military pilots as Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, and much later identified as Chinese spy balloons, would you consider the original statement to be honest?

[Gondwanaland]

Which may explain why Politico mistook "we didn't detect it" from the head of NORAD to mean that the military didn't detect it.

They can't seem to figure out ifi t was detected or not.

Fog of early reports.

Or of a constantly changing story made up by those who can't keep it straight under scrutiny.... Like the bait ans switch from the original 'oh balloons flew over the country under Trump too' to 'well some balloons came near the shore once or twice, let's ignore that none transited the entire country'

If someone had said "those early spy balloons were detected by the military, but not reported to the president until much later", and then you found out that the spy balloons were reported by military pilots as Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, and much later identified as Chinese spy balloons, would you consider the original statement to be honest?

No, because other statements are implying the supposed 'detection' was just later intelligence and not detection. And then of course claims like yours that the military didn't detect it. Y'all need to figure out a story and stick to it.

[seanD]

I only said it because Politico (and some unnamed official) said it. (And the unnamed official may have made the same mistake that Politico did.)

Politico:

The military did not detect previous flights of Chinese spy balloons over the U.S. that took place during the Trump administration, a top general said Monday, due to a “gap” in the Defense Department’s ability to track certain airborne objects.

Gen. Glen VanHerck, head of North American Aerospace Defense Command, cited the issue as the reason that at least three spy balloon flights were not briefed to senior Trump officials at the time.

Turns out the actual quote of VanHerck was, once again, a bit ambiguous:

“So those balloons, so every day as a NORAD commander it’s my responsibility to detect threats to North America,” he told reporters at the Pentagon. “I will tell you that we did not detect those threats. And that’s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out. But I don’t want to go into further detail.”

He added that the intelligence community later determined the flights had occurred using “additional means of collection.”

Eventually it gets to the UAPTF (UAP Task Force) or AARO (All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office). Both of those are in the DoD. But it isn't brought to the president's attention unless they can figure out what it is.

Which answers an earlier post of yours:



But now you are quibbling about whether a military pilot reporting a UAP that is much later identified as a Chinese spy balloon precludes officials from saying that the spy balloon was undetected by the military.

No, I'm quibbling over your claim the sightings were not detected by the military. The reason I'm guessing you tried to argue that is that your own source debunked the fact the objects were not detected...

The aircraft spotted during Trump’s tenure were smaller in size and only detected briefly in US airspace. They were first categorized as “unidentified aerial phenomena” by intelligence officials, only to later be identified as balloons. The assessments indicated they came from China, but were not definitive.

Which makes all those officials that initially claimed they weren't detected liars. So then you tried to switch it to just intelligence sources that detected it. Now you're trying to obfuscate the argument even more by bringing up old posts that are inconsequential to this discussion. Nice try though.

[shunyadragon]

I'm not talking about this one, I'm talking about these previous balloons they claim were discovered after Biden took office but somehow flew over before then but weren't detected. Try reading for comprehension next time, thanks.

Unclear biased incomplete previous post. The balloons discovered after Biden took office? The incidents were 'early' in the Baden administration and he responded by directing the military to imprive detection and monitoring of the balloons.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chinese-balloons-trump-early-biden-admin-spotted-norad/story?id=96925646

Chinese surveillance balloons during Trump, early Biden admin not spotted by NORAD, commander says


"That's a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out," an official said.

ByLuis Martinez and Matt Seyler

Previous Chinese surveillance balloon incidents that occurred during the Trump administration and early under the Biden administration were not spotted by NORAD at the time, Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, told reporters Monday.

"We did not detect those threats. And that's a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out," VanHerck said.

VanHerck said that U.S. intelligence made NORAD aware of the threat posed by the surveillance balloons after the fact through "additional means of collection and made us aware of those balloons that were previously approaching North America or transit in North America."

The military commander would not specify what techniques were employed by U.S. intelligence to determine the capabilities of the balloons.
MORE: Chinese surveillance balloon recovery underway amid GOP attacks


VanHerck also provided a new insight as to why the balloon was not shot down as it approached Alaska in late January, noting that his "assessment that this balloon did not present a physical military threat to North America and therefore, I could not take immediate action because it was not demonstrating a hostile act or hostile intent.”

Senior U.S. officials have described China as having built up a fleet of surveillance balloons that have crossed into sovereign airspace over five continents.

U.S. officials had told ABC News of prior incursions near Hawaii and Guam last February, and in the wake of the balloon being shot down off the South Carolina coast this Saturday, senior administration officials said that there had also been three additional incursions during the Trump administration.

VanHerck's acknowledgement that NORAD had not spotted those incursions would help explain why several former senior Trump to previous brief incursions denied having been aware of any balloon incursions.

© Copyright Original Source

[Gondwanaland]

Unclear biased incomplete previous post.

No, you just didn't bother to read for comprehension and pay attention to the post I was responding to, as is usual with you and your twittery.

The balloons discovered after Biden took office?

That's what they were claiming.

The incidents were 'early' in the Baden administration and he responded by directing the military to imprive detection and monitoring of the balloons.

So now you're claiming there were more incidents during Biden? Can you guys not come up with a coherent story?

[Stoic]

They can't seem to figure out ifi t was detected or not.

Maybe it depends on how one interprets the statement.

Or of a constantly changing story made up by those who can't keep it straight under scrutiny.... Like the bait ans switch from the original 'oh balloons flew over the country under Trump too' to 'well some balloons came near the shore once or twice, let's ignore that none transited the entire country'

The original statement was "PRC government surveillance balloons transited the continental United States briefly at least three times during the prior administration and once that we know of at the beginning of this administration, but never for this duration of time."

The word "briefly" pretty much negates the idea that "balloons transited the entire country".

No, because other statements are implying the supposed 'detection' was just later intelligence and not detection. And then of course claims like yours that the military didn't detect it. Y'all need to figure out a story and stick to it.

As I pointed out to seanD, the official explanation is from the head of NORAD, and his words were "we did not detect those threats".

I don't think that's incompatible with the idea that military pilots reported Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, which were much later identified as Chinese spy balloons. By "we", he could have meant NORAD rather than the military. And even if he meant the military, it can be argued that pilots reporting UAPs is not the same as detecting threats.

[Stoic]

No, I'm quibbling over your claim the sightings were not detected by the military. The reason I'm guessing you tried to argue that is that your own source debunked the fact the objects were not detected...

The aircraft spotted during Trump’s tenure were smaller in size and only detected briefly in US airspace. They were first categorized as “unidentified aerial phenomena” by intelligence officials, only to later be identified as balloons. The assessments indicated they came from China, but were not definitive.

Which makes all those officials that initially claimed they weren't detected liars.

So, one unnamed administration official was wrong, assuming Fox News accurately reported what he said.

So then you tried to switch it to just intelligence sources that detected it.

True, I should not have trusted the Fox News report. I should have just left it as "we'll eventually find out if there was a valid reason for them not being reported to the president".

Now you're trying to obfuscate the argument even more by bringing up old posts that are inconsequential to this discussion. Nice try though.

It's all good, as long as we now agree that there was a valid reason for not reporting the Chinese spy balloons to President Trump.

[eider]

Traitor Joe sells us out again!

Wasn't your President wise?
To wait until the falling debris could not hurt anything or anyone?
And then he directed the balloon's destruction.
Quite wise?

[Mountain Man]

1. NORAD is military, literally headquartered at the AFB here in Colorado, and headed by the USAF and RCAF
2. you claimed they weren't detected.

It seems that every time the White House comes out with a new version of the story, stoic readily accepts it as the gospel truth even if it flatly contradicts their earlier pronouncements.