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Trump and North Korea

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  • #46
    Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
    And the only known break since Kim Jong-un lasting more than a couple months just happened to be during and after talks with Trump.
    After all the missiles he launched in 2017, a year and a half break didn't mean much.

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by Stoic View Post

      After all the missiles he launched in 2017, a year and a half break didn't mean much.


      Let me know of any other year and a half break where he wasn't testing a nuke or launching a missile.

      I'm always still in trouble again

      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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      • #48
        Originally posted by rogue06 View Post


        Let me know of any other year and a half break where he wasn't testing a nuke or launching a missile.
        Let me know of a year before 2017 where he did as many tests as he did in 2017.

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by Stoic View Post

          Let me know of a year before 2017 where he did as many tests as he did in 2017.
          For nukes it was less than 2016 and the same conducted in 2006, 2009 and 2013.

          It was a big year for missile tests, nothing like this year which still isn't over, but it was also well before Kim Jong-u and Trump signed an agreement in 2018 or met the next year. In 2018 no missiles of any sort were tested and in 2019 only some shortrange missiles.

          Moreover, it appears that many of those missiles tested in 2017 were from backlogged tests since in the previous couple of years their launches kept resulting in failures. Once they fixed the problem they wanted to make sure it worked on their new intermediate and long range missiles (their last successful launch of anything but a short rang missile was in early 2014).

          I'm always still in trouble again

          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
          "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            For nukes it was less than 2016 and the same conducted in 2006, 2009 and 2013.

            It was a big year for missile tests, nothing like this year which still isn't over, but it was also well before Kim Jong-u and Trump signed an agreement in 2018 or met the next year. In 2018 no missiles of any sort were tested and in 2019 only some shortrange missiles.

            Moreover, it appears that many of those missiles tested in 2017 were from backlogged tests since in the previous couple of years their launches kept resulting in failures. Once they fixed the problem they wanted to make sure it worked on their new intermediate and long range missiles (their last successful launch of anything but a short rang missile was in early 2014).
            It sounds like you're saying that the tests they ran in 2017 were successful, so they didn't need any more tests for a few years.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by Stoic View Post

              It sounds like you're saying that the tests they ran in 2017 were successful, so they didn't need any more tests for a few years.
              Part of the reason for the Kim missile tests is to rattle his saber, not to actually test his missiles. South Korea and the US hold a joint naval exercise? Kim responds by firing off a missile - and he even declares that's why he does it. So in contrast, when he goes quiet for a long period of time, one can assume he is not rattling his saber.
              "You should just assume going forward that if I am ever wrong it is a typo" - Backup
              "
              Reality simply does not change based upon consensus or desire." - rogue

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by Ronson View Post

                As opposed to public threats to destroy his country wouldn't cause him to develop his military?
                No more than the long range plan of North Korea, which has never changed.

                The reason Kim gave for the missiles fired is his objections to the joint military exercises with the USA which have taken place for more than fifty years.
                Last edited by shunyadragon; 10-14-2022, 12:55 PM.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by Ronson View Post

                  Part of the reason for the Kim missile tests is to rattle his saber, not to actually test his missiles. South Korea and the US hold a joint naval exercise? Kim responds by firing off a missile - and he even declares that's why he does it. So in contrast, when he goes quiet for a long period of time, one can assume he is not rattling his saber.
                  Probably because rattling his saber got him the results he wanted.


                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Stoic View Post

                    Probably because rattling his saber got him the results he wanted.
                    I'll agree with that to some degree, he wasn't feeling threatened so he quieted down. So, what has changed?
                    "You should just assume going forward that if I am ever wrong it is a typo" - Backup
                    "
                    Reality simply does not change based upon consensus or desire." - rogue

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      That cannot be confirmed but we do know he stopped testing them.

                      No nuke tests. No missile launches over South Korea, or Japan, or toward Guam.
                      The recent tests by North Korea showed a significant jump in technology, which takes time to develop even copying technology from China and the West. North Korea has never changed their goals.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                        I'll agree with that to some degree, he wasn't feeling threatened so he quieted down.
                        He quieted down while he was negotiating with Trump to get relief from sanctions. When he couldn't get that, he started testing again.

                        So, what has changed?
                        Seems like the most recent change is the US and South Korea resuming joint military exercises.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Stoic View Post
                          He quieted down while he was negotiating with Trump to get relief from sanctions. When he couldn't get that, he started testing again.
                          There is no evidence of a tie-in there, but it's possible.

                          Seems like the most recent change is the US and South Korea resuming joint military exercises.
                          Exactly. He interprets those exercises as a threat so he rattles his saber in response.
                          "You should just assume going forward that if I am ever wrong it is a typo" - Backup
                          "
                          Reality simply does not change based upon consensus or desire." - rogue

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                            There is no evidence of a tie-in there, but it's possible.
                            Talks broke down in February, 2019, and Kim started launching missiles again just over two months later.

                            It's not proof, I'd like to see an alternative explanation.

                            Exactly. He interprets those exercises as a threat so he rattles his saber in response.
                            It worked once before, why not try it again?

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Stoic View Post
                              Talks broke down in February, 2019, and Kim started launching missiles again just over two months later.

                              It's not proof, I'd like to see an alternative explanation.
                              Lots of explanations. It could be that Kim had new missiles he wanted to test so HE sabotaged the talks. There could have been something that he considered a provocation (sometimes it only hinges on something said, like Moon hinting NK will one day be history). It could even be a coincidence. The point is that Kim relatively behaved himself when Trump was president. You can find alternative explanations for that, but IMO it is because Trump had direct communication with Kim (which he respected) and because Trump seemed like an unpredictable president, at least at the outset.

                              It worked once before, why not try it again?
                              Assumption.
                              "You should just assume going forward that if I am ever wrong it is a typo" - Backup
                              "
                              Reality simply does not change based upon consensus or desire." - rogue

                              Comment

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