"Not so bad" inflation has fed hiking rates.

[Starlight]

Does the Wall Street Journal acknowledge we're in a recession? That would be more surprising if they denied it.

This seems a strange question to see in a thread about the Fed raising interest rates, given the Fed raises rates when the economy is doing too-well and lowers them when it hits a recession.

That said, a lot of people, myself included, think the Fed is absolutely insane for raising interest rates currently and is liable to cause a recession by doing so. Here's a professor of finance pointing out that what the Fed is doing is absolutely crazy and saying "they know nothing".

[seanD]

This seems a strange question to see in a thread about the Fed raising interest rates, given the Fed raises rates when the economy is doing too-well and lowers them when it hits a recession.

That said, a lot of people, myself included, think the Fed is absolutely insane for raising interest rates currently and is liable to cause a recession by doing so. Here's a professor of finance pointing out that what the Fed is doing is absolutely crazy and saying "they know nothing".

Lots of investment managers that are long stocks and bonds -- Cathie Wood, Gundlach, et al. -- are whining and moaning about what the Fed is doing because they're not getting their welfare from the Fed, so their assets aren't propped up anymore. I don't know much about Siegel's past history, but none of the high profile permabull investor cheerleaders I know of were at all complaining about Fed meddling during the whole last decade that propped up the market and inflated the asset bubble that enriched them. NOW the Fed is making a mistake, they cry. Well, yeah, because their assets are deflating as a result of the Fed removing its support.

[CivilDiscourse]

This seems a strange question to see in a thread about the Fed raising interest rates, given the Fed raises rates when the economy is doing too-well and lowers them when it hits a recession.

That said, a lot of people, myself included, think the Fed is absolutely insane for raising interest rates currently and is liable to cause a recession by doing so. Here's a professor of finance pointing out that what the Fed is doing is absolutely crazy and saying "they know nothing".

The fed is well aware that this could cause a biden-cession. They deem that your "not-so-bad" inflation is a large enough risk to the country to take that risk.

[rogue06]

This seems a strange question to see in a thread about the Fed raising interest rates, given the Fed raises rates when the economy is doing too-well and lowers them when it hits a recession.

That said, a lot of people, myself included, think the Fed is absolutely insane for raising interest rates currently and is liable to cause a recession by doing so. Here's a professor of finance pointing out that what the Fed is doing is absolutely crazy and saying "they know nothing".

Are you seriously taking the position that the Fed is raising interest rates because the economy is "doing too-well"?

It sounds like you are regurgitating the line that the economy is okay and the fed is about to ruin it, which would be like part 2 to the claim that inflation started taking place only after Putin invaded Ukraine. A completely detached from reality view.

[Ronson]

This seems a strange question to see in a thread about the Fed raising interest rates, given the Fed raises rates when the economy is doing too-well and lowers them when it hits a recession.

IIRC, they raise rates when there is too much borrowing-and-spending (purchasing on credit) which increases inflation. But since this is being done by Biden and not necessarily by consumers, raising interest rates isn't going to help.

That said, a lot of people, myself included, think the Fed is absolutely insane for raising interest rates currently and is liable to cause a recession by doing so. Here's a professor of finance pointing out that what the Fed is doing is absolutely crazy and saying "they know nothing".

The recession is already here. The economy receded for two consecutive quarters. Biden needs to stop printing and spending money like a drunken sailor or it's just going to keep getting worse.

[rogue06]

IIRC, they raise rates when there is too much borrowing-and-spending (purchasing on credit) which increases inflation. But since this is being done by Biden and not necessarily by consumers, raising interest rates isn't going to help.



The recession is already here. The economy receded for two consecutive quarters. Biden needs to stop printing and spending money like a drunken sailor or it's just going to keep getting worse.

The same folks who are hemming and hawing over whether or not we are now in a recession were pretty much the same folks who were claiming we were in a recession when there was "negative growth" (gotta love that term) for just a single quarter when OBM was president.

[Sparko]

Not technically

what's that mean?

[Sparko]

IIRC, they raise rates when there is too much borrowing-and-spending (purchasing on credit) which increases inflation. But since this is being done by Biden and not necessarily by consumers, raising interest rates isn't going to help.



The recession is already here. The economy receded for two consecutive quarters. Biden needs to stop printing and spending money like a drunken sailor or it's just going to keep getting worse.

I take offense at that! I don't print money!

[seanD]

So it seems Jerome Powell is going to be the fallguy for the coming economic carnage. Liz Warren is already seemingly laying the groundwork.

To be clear, the Fed is definitely to blame, but the Dems and the whiny investment managers are doing it for the wrong reasons.

So here's a possible Blueanon conspiracy theory pushed by the Dems that may be coming our way either before midterms or before 2024: The claim will be that since Powell was picked by Trump, and that Powell is supposedly a republican, the market and economic turmoil is collusion between Trump and Powell (and perhaps even Russia!) to purposely wreck the economy in order to make Biden and Dems look bad. Nothing is stopping me, and I mean nothing, from expecting that to be the next nutty Dem tale they'll spin.

Let's see if I'm right.

[Teallaura]

I take offense at that! I don't print money!

Only because you never learned to print...

[Teallaura]

So it seems Jerome Powell is going to be the fallguy for the coming economic carnage. Liz Warren is already seemingly laying the groundwork.

To be clear, the Fed is definitely to blame, but the Dems and the whiny investment managers are doing it for the wrong reasons.

So here's a possible Blueanon conspiracy theory pushed by the Dems that may be coming our way either before midterms or before 2024: The claim will be that since Powell was picked by Trump, and that Powell is supposedly a republican, the market and economic turmoil is collusion between Trump and Powell (and perhaps even Russia!) to purposely wreck the economy in order to make Biden and Dems look bad. Nothing is stopping me, and I mean nothing, from expecting that to be the next nutty Dem tale they'll spin.

Let's see if I'm right.

Er, the midterms are five weeks away. They'd best hurry up if they hope to pull this off.


I mean, sure, it's a possibility but you need a couple months lead in they don't have. Most people don't pay attention to the Fed or anything economy related so they need a way to plaster this theory in front of people for weeks on end in order for ordinary voters to register it, let alone vote accordingly.

The other problem is that the Trump as Boogeyman has pretty well played out. This theory might please the base but it will be more likely to drive away voters.

[rogue06]

Er, the midterms are five weeks away. They'd best hurry up if they hope to pull this off.


I mean, sure, it's a possibility but you need a couple months lead in they don't have. Most people don't pay attention to the Fed or anything economy related so they need a way to plaster this theory in front of people for weeks on end in order for ordinary voters to register it, let alone vote accordingly.

The other problem is that the Trump as Boogeyman has pretty well played out. This theory might please the base but it will be more likely to drive away voters.

The J6 Circus is returning for its encore that nobody asked for.

[seanD]

Er, the midterms are five weeks away. They'd best hurry up if they hope to pull this off.


I mean, sure, it's a possibility but you need a couple months lead in they don't have. Most people don't pay attention to the Fed or anything economy related so they need a way to plaster this theory in front of people for weeks on end in order for ordinary voters to register it, let alone vote accordingly.

The other problem is that the Trump as Boogeyman has pretty well played out. This theory might please the base but it will be more likely to drive away voters.

I think you're underestimating Dem TDS. That they actually tried to get political mileage out of J6 (in the midst of economic issues, border issues, and crime issues) and that it went this long is proof alone.

[Teallaura]

I think you're underestimating Dem TDS. That they actually tried to get political mileage out of J6 (in the midst of economic issues, border issues, and crime issues) and that it went this long is proof alone.

The Democrats need the non crazy parts of their party and independents to show up and vote . There isn't enough time to impact these groups.

[seanD]

The Democrats need the non crazy parts of their party and independents to show up and vote . There isn't enough time to impact these groups.

So you're of the conclusion that the Dems are thinking rationally? I think they're completely delusional, because they apparently think all their gaslighting is actually working.

They also know that most folks of either party don't know, much less understand, what the Fed is or does. All they need to convey is that Powell is responsible for their economic pain (and that's clearly what's happening now, whether this is intentionally planned or not) and that he was Trump's guy. They might even look back at 2018 and argue the fact that Trump made Powell stop tightening as "proof" that Powell is under his control.

Maybe I'm wrong, because maybe that's actually too sophisticated of a strategy for them.