I'll never be as right about any analysis again as I was this one. No one will believe me*, of course, but it's true.
Here's what I predicted in February:
1) Finland and Sweden would join NATO.
2) NATO would stick together.
3) Germany would support NATO and sanctions.( I thought it would take them a week - they did it in three days.)
4) Lots of saber rattling, no true nuclear threat.
5) Russia would not be able to take Ukraine.
6) The war will be less than a year, maybe ending by December.
7) Russia would lose the war back to the 2014 borders.
8) Russia will experience a collapse - at least of the government, probably a total nation-state collapse - after the loss.
9) Ukraine will join NATO within the decade.
Obviously, not all of that has happened, yet.
Russia withdrew from the north of Ukraine months ago. They have been routed from Kharkiv in the last few days. In the process they have effectively transferred more weapons to Ukraine than any nation has since the Second World War and Lend Lease.
There are reports of civilian flight from Donesk to Russia. The rout may be continuing but events are moving too fast for good assessments to keep up. Kharkiv, however, is confirmed to now be fully liberated - or abandoned, however you want to look at it.
Have the Ukrainians won? Not yet. Nation-states are resilient things. Russia started with a big toolkit. But this is the kind of setback that does enormous political damage back home and there's plenty of evidence of exactly that.
Could Russia come back after halftime? Sure, anything's possible. But I truly doubt it. The Russian camel has a whole barn on its back - it won't take an entire straw to make it break now.
*Well, a lot of this is in my blog Quill Sword.
Here's what I predicted in February:
1) Finland and Sweden would join NATO.
2) NATO would stick together.
3) Germany would support NATO and sanctions.( I thought it would take them a week - they did it in three days.)
4) Lots of saber rattling, no true nuclear threat.
5) Russia would not be able to take Ukraine.
6) The war will be less than a year, maybe ending by December.
7) Russia would lose the war back to the 2014 borders.
8) Russia will experience a collapse - at least of the government, probably a total nation-state collapse - after the loss.
9) Ukraine will join NATO within the decade.
Obviously, not all of that has happened, yet.
Russia withdrew from the north of Ukraine months ago. They have been routed from Kharkiv in the last few days. In the process they have effectively transferred more weapons to Ukraine than any nation has since the Second World War and Lend Lease.
There are reports of civilian flight from Donesk to Russia. The rout may be continuing but events are moving too fast for good assessments to keep up. Kharkiv, however, is confirmed to now be fully liberated - or abandoned, however you want to look at it.
Have the Ukrainians won? Not yet. Nation-states are resilient things. Russia started with a big toolkit. But this is the kind of setback that does enormous political damage back home and there's plenty of evidence of exactly that.
Could Russia come back after halftime? Sure, anything's possible. But I truly doubt it. The Russian camel has a whole barn on its back - it won't take an entire straw to make it break now.
*Well, a lot of this is in my blog Quill Sword.
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