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Meanwhile, Back in the War

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  • Meanwhile, Back in the War

    I'll never be as right about any analysis again as I was this one. No one will believe me*, of course, but it's true.

    Here's what I predicted in February:
    1) Finland and Sweden would join NATO.
    2) NATO would stick together.
    3) Germany would support NATO and sanctions.( I thought it would take them a week - they did it in three days.)
    4) Lots of saber rattling, no true nuclear threat.
    5) Russia would not be able to take Ukraine.
    6) The war will be less than a year, maybe ending by December.
    7) Russia would lose the war back to the 2014 borders.
    8) Russia will experience a collapse - at least of the government, probably a total nation-state collapse - after the loss.
    9) Ukraine will join NATO within the decade.

    Obviously, not all of that has happened, yet.

    Russia withdrew from the north of Ukraine months ago. They have been routed from Kharkiv in the last few days. In the process they have effectively transferred more weapons to Ukraine than any nation has since the Second World War and Lend Lease.

    There are reports of civilian flight from Donesk to Russia. The rout may be continuing but events are moving too fast for good assessments to keep up. Kharkiv, however, is confirmed to now be fully liberated - or abandoned, however you want to look at it.

    Have the Ukrainians won? Not yet. Nation-states are resilient things. Russia started with a big toolkit. But this is the kind of setback that does enormous political damage back home and there's plenty of evidence of exactly that.

    Could Russia come back after halftime? Sure, anything's possible. But I truly doubt it. The Russian camel has a whole barn on its back - it won't take an entire straw to make it break now.




    *Well, a lot of this is in my blog Quill Sword.
    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

    My Personal Blog

    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

    Quill Sword

  • #2
    I predicted:
    1) Russia would only launch an attack in the east, cutting a swath corridor to Crimea
    2) Russia would absorb the land it occupied in the east - and
    3) The war would end by summer and Ukraine would agree to drop claims to Crimea officially.

    I think I was wrong.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
      I'll never be as right about any analysis again as I was this one. No one will believe me*, of course, but it's true.

      Here's what I predicted in February:
      1) Finland and Sweden would join NATO.
      2) NATO would stick together.
      3) Germany would support NATO and sanctions.( I thought it would take them a week - they did it in three days.)
      4) Lots of saber rattling, no true nuclear threat.
      5) Russia would not be able to take Ukraine.
      6) The war will be less than a year, maybe ending by December.
      7) Russia would lose the war back to the 2014 borders.
      8) Russia will experience a collapse - at least of the government, probably a total nation-state collapse - after the loss.
      9) Ukraine will join NATO within the decade.

      Obviously, not all of that has happened, yet.

      Russia withdrew from the north of Ukraine months ago. They have been routed from Kharkiv in the last few days. In the process they have effectively transferred more weapons to Ukraine than any nation has since the Second World War and Lend Lease.

      There are reports of civilian flight from Donesk to Russia. The rout may be continuing but events are moving too fast for good assessments to keep up. Kharkiv, however, is confirmed to now be fully liberated - or abandoned, however you want to look at it.

      Have the Ukrainians won? Not yet. Nation-states are resilient things. Russia started with a big toolkit. But this is the kind of setback that does enormous political damage back home and there's plenty of evidence of exactly that.

      Could Russia come back after halftime? Sure, anything's possible. But I truly doubt it. The Russian camel has a whole barn on its back - it won't take an entire straw to make it break now.




      *Well, a lot of this is in my blog Quill Sword.
      Are you among the folks that think Putin is psychotic or at the very least brutally ambitious with an intent to conqueror Eastern Europe?

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm not sure what to make of these recent reports that Ukraine is suddenly trouncing Russia after getting curb-stomped for the past six months.
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
          I'm not sure what to make of these recent reports that Ukraine is suddenly trouncing Russia after getting curb-stomped for the past six months.
          There was an analysis a couple months back - can't be sure, but I think it was in Haaretz - that Russia was exhausting its reserves of arms and lacked the capacity to replenish. Events are playing out pretty much as the article forecast.
          1Cor 15:34 Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
          .
          ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛
          Scripture before Tradition:
          but that won't prevent others from
          taking it upon themselves to deprive you
          of the right to call yourself Christian.

          ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
            I'm not sure what to make of these recent reports that Ukraine is suddenly trouncing Russia after getting curb-stomped for the past six months.
            Me either. I'll just wait until the smoke clears. Too much propaganda going on to know what is happening. It's not like the old days when news agencies got into the foxholes and reported rather objectively about the goings-on.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by seanD View Post

              Are you among the folks that think Putin is psychotic or at the very least brutally ambitious with an intent to conqueror Eastern Europe?
              Oh, I got the invasion completely wrong - I thought he was smarter than that. It was an obvious (to me) miscalculation because Eastern Europeans aren't all that happy with Russia.

              Not really sure if he's the Russia has a Special Role in History type or 'we're gonna run out of men to do this with' demographer type. Most likely a combination of a bunch of different factors, plus the way Ukraine folded in 2014 made him think it was worth the risk. Biden's idiotic withdrawal probably prompted the timetable.

              My guess, Putin really does want to usher in the new Soviet Union - but that's just guesswork. Does he want to retake the territory? Absolutely, for a number of reasons. I doubt he thinks he can but that wasn't the main issue, I think. Having a western influenced Ukraine would have put a big damper on the whole return to the soviet days at home thing - too many Russians with Ukrainian cousins.

              But you don't invade another country unless you want to take the territory - well, excepting the US, of course. But we're weird. Russia has never done the peaceful pullout - they get kicked out or they move in.





              "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

              "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

              My Personal Blog

              My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

              Quill Sword

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                I'm not sure what to make of these recent reports that Ukraine is suddenly trouncing Russia after getting curb-stomped for the past six months.
                Well, they weren't curb stomped, for one thing. It took Russia 82 days to take Maripol which was completely cutoff. It took them almost two months to take Severodonansk which they took pretty much the same way - by flattening it. Russia gained little territory after its withdrawal from the north to 'redeploy'. Frankly, the Russian performance has been well below expectations.

                Reports of Russian morale being in the crapper have been coming out from the beginning. Yes, Ukraine blindsided them but troops intent on fighting don't rout like that.

                "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                My Personal Blog

                My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                Quill Sword

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Ronson View Post

                  Me either. I'll just wait until the smoke clears. Too much propaganda going on to know what is happening. It's not like the old days when news agencies got into the foxholes and reported rather objectively about the goings-on.
                  Kharkiv is confirmed. Russian media is hilariously falling apart trying to cover for the rout.

                  Also, there are journalists on the ground in Ukraine. I have no idea what the lamestream media is doing but there's a ton of great info available.
                  "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                  "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                  My Personal Blog

                  My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                  Quill Sword

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by tabibito View Post

                    There was an analysis a couple months back - can't be sure, but I think it was in Haaretz - that Russia was exhausting its reserves of arms and lacked the capacity to replenish. Events are playing out pretty much as the article forecast.
                    It's more than that. The Russians never throw anything out so they had plenty of munitions at the start. The problem really started with the HIMARS - Ukrainians targeted any supply or weapons depot in range. The Russians lost a LOT of munitions. Worse, they had to move depots further away and depend more on trucks. They aren't really good at trucks for distance logistics, preferring trains, so they didn't have a huge number on hand. Their logistics are still playing catch up.

                    The sanctions didn't help with manufacturing the stuff they did need to replenish, either. But I suspect that hurt them more on barrels than shells - I doubt the 60,000
                    shells a day thing people were claiming a couple months ago as that would be stupid, but even at the more realistic 20,000, that is going to eat up your barrel life pretty quickly. And those are not nearly as easy to build.
                    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                    My Personal Blog

                    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                    Quill Sword

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Teallaura View Post


                      The sanctions didn't help with manufacturing the stuff they did need to replenish, either. But I suspect that hurt them more on barrels than shells - I doubt the 60,000
                      shells a day thing people were claiming a couple months ago as that would be stupid, but even at the more realistic 20,000, that is going to eat up your barrel life pretty quickly. And those are not nearly as easy to build.
                      Yup - that was in the article.
                      1Cor 15:34 Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
                      .
                      ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛
                      Scripture before Tradition:
                      but that won't prevent others from
                      taking it upon themselves to deprive you
                      of the right to call yourself Christian.

                      ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                        Oh, I got the invasion completely wrong - I thought he was smarter than that. It was an obvious (to me) miscalculation because Eastern Europeans aren't all that happy with Russia.

                        Not really sure if he's the Russia has a Special Role in History type or 'we're gonna run out of men to do this with' demographer type. Most likely a combination of a bunch of different factors, plus the way Ukraine folded in 2014 made him think it was worth the risk. Biden's idiotic withdrawal probably prompted the timetable.

                        My guess, Putin really does want to usher in the new Soviet Union - but that's just guesswork. Does he want to retake the territory? Absolutely, for a number of reasons. I doubt he thinks he can but that wasn't the main issue, I think. Having a western influenced Ukraine would have put a big damper on the whole return to the soviet days at home thing - too many Russians with Ukrainian cousins.

                        But you don't invade another country unless you want to take the territory - well, excepting the US, of course. But we're weird. Russia has never done the peaceful pullout - they get kicked out or they move in.




                        I'm just curious why you think nukes would be used. If you believe Russia will lose, what makes you think Putin will restrain himself from using nukes out of desperation? Apparently even a Ukrainian commander (Valery Zaluzhny ) thinks there might be nukes involved.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by seanD View Post

                          I'm just curious why you think nukes would be used. If you believe Russia will lose, what makes you think Putin will restrain himself from using nukes out of desperation? Apparently even a Ukrainian commander (Valery Zaluzhny ) thinks there might be nukes involved.
                          Brain fart. I meant to write why nukes WOULDN'T be used.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Teallaura View Post

                            Kharkiv is confirmed. Russian media is hilariously falling apart trying to cover for the rout.

                            Also, there are journalists on the ground in Ukraine. I have no idea what the lamestream media is doing but there's a ton of great info available.
                            Care to share?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by seanD View Post

                              Brain fart. I meant to write why nukes WOULDN'T be used.
                              I think even Putin knows that using nukes could cause the US and NATO to enter the war. And then WW3. Plus he wants Ukraine for it's resources, nukes could end up irradiating those resources and cost more to clean up than they have spent on the entire war so far.

                              Comment

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