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A little light reading!

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  • A little light reading!

    Emeritus professor, Bill McGuire has just brought out his latest book Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant's Guide.

    I have not [as yet] read the entire work but from the available text courtesy of Amazon, an article in The Guardian, and a review by one person on Amazon it makes for sobering reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...al-catastrophe

    The publication of Bill McGuire’s latest book, Hothouse Earth, could not be more timely. Appearing in the shops this week, it will be perused by sweltering customers who have just endured record high temperatures across the UK and now face the prospect of weeks of drought to add to their discomfort.

    And this is just the beginning, insists McGuire, who is emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London. As he makes clear in his uncompromising depiction of the coming climatic catastrophe, we have – for far too long – ignored explicit warnings that rising carbon emissions are dangerously heating the Earth. Now we are going to pay the price for our complacence in the form of storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves that will easily surpass current extremes.

    The crucial point, he argues, is that there is now no chance of us avoiding a perilous, all-pervasive climate breakdown. We have passed the point of no return and can expect a future in which lethal heatwaves and temperatures in excess of 50C (120F) are common in the tropics; where summers at temperate latitudes will invariably be baking hot, and where our oceans are destined to become warm and acidic. “A child born in 2020 will face a far more hostile world that its grandparents did,” McGuire insists.

    In this respect, the volcanologist, who was also a member of the UK government’s Natural Hazard Working Group, takes an extreme position. Most other climate experts still maintain we have time left, although not very much, to bring about meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. A rapid drive to net zero and the halting of global warming is still within our grasp, they say.

    Such claims are dismissed by McGuire. “I know a lot of people working in climate science who say one thing in public but a very different thing in private. In confidence, they are all much more scared about the future we face, but they won’t admit that in public. I call this climate appeasement and I believe it only makes things worse. The world needs to know how bad things are going to get before we can hope to start to tackle the crisis.”

    McGuire finished writing Hothouse Earth at the end of 2021. He includes many of the record high temperatures that had just afflicted the planet, including extremes that had struck the UK. A few months after he completed his manuscript, and as publication loomed, he found that many of those records had already been broken. “That is the trouble with writing a book about climate breakdown,” says McGuire. “By the time it is published it is already out of date. That is how fast things are moving.”

    Among the records broken during the book’s editing was the announcement that a temperature of 40.3C was reached in east England on 19 July, the highest ever recorded in the UK. (The country’s previous hottest temperature, 38.7C, was in Cambridge in 2019.)

    In addition, London’s fire service had to tackle blazes across the capital, with one conflagration destroying 16 homes in Wennington, east London. Crews there had to fight to save the local fire station itself. “Who would have thought that a village on the edge of London would be almost wiped out by wildfires in 2022,” says McGuire. “If this country needs a wake-up call then surely that is it.”

    Wildfires of unprecedented intensity and ferocity have also swept across Europe, North America and Australia this year, while record rainfall in the midwest led to the devastating flooding in the US’s Yellowstone national park. “And as we head further into 2022, it is already a different world out there,” he adds. “Soon it will be unrecognisable to every one of us.”

    These changes underline one of the most startling aspects of climate breakdown: the speed with which global average temperature rises translate into extreme weather.

    “Just look at what is happening already to a world which has only heated up by just over one degree,” says McGuire. “It turns out the climate is changing for the worse far quicker than predicted by early climate models. That’s something that was never expected.”

    Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, when humanity began pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, global temperatures have risen by just over 1C. At the Cop26 climate meeting in Glasgow last year, it was agreed that every effort should be made to try to limit that rise to 1.5C, although to achieve such a goal, it was calculated that global carbon emissions will have to be reduced by 45% by 2030.

    “In the real world, that is not going to happen,” says McGuire. “Instead, we are on course for close to a 14% rise in emissions by that date – which will almost certainly see us shatter the 1.5C guardrail in less than a decade.”

    And we should be in no doubt about the consequences. Anything above 1.5C will see a world plagued by intense summer heat, extreme drought, devastating floods, reduced crop yields, rapidly melting ice sheets and surging sea levels. A rise of 2C and above will seriously threaten the stability of global society, McGuire argues. It should also be noted that according to the most hopeful estimates of emission cut pledges made at Cop26, the world is on course to heat up by between 2.4C and 3C.

    From this perspective it is clear we can do little to avoid the coming climate breakdown. Instead we need to adapt to the hothouse world that lies ahead and to start taking action to try to stop a bleak situation deteriorating even further, McGuire says. [...] As to the reason for the world’s tragically tardy response, McGuire blames a “conspiracy of ignorance, inertia, poor governance, and obfuscation and lies by climate change deniers that has ensured that we have sleepwalked to within less than half a degree of the dangerous 1.5C climate change guardrail. Soon, barring some sort of miracle, we will crash through it.”

    The future is forbidding from this perspective, though McGuire stresses that if carbon emissions can be cut substantially in the near future, and if we start to adapt to a much hotter world today, a truly calamitous and unsustainable future can be avoided. The days ahead will be grimmer, but not disastrous. We may not be able to give climate breakdown the slip but we can head off further instalments that would appear as a climate cataclysm bad enough to threaten the very survival of human civilisation.


    From the available content of the book he draws a direct line from Arkwright's first cotton mills in the late 18th century to the situation in industrialised societies today where the demand for ever more "stuff" has produced an unsustainable exploitation of diminishing resources and which has led to the present climate and ecological crisis.

    He also cites early scientific warnings and mentions Eunice Foot who in 1856, wrote a paper on the heat absorbing properties of carbon monoxide. John Tyndall took her work further and conducted hundreds of experiments on a range of gases and noted that varying atmospheric levels in carbon dioxide and methane "must produce climate change". He then briefly touches on the work by Svante Arrhenius at the end of the nineteenth century who laid the groundwork for modern ideas that link carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere with global warming. He also mentions the accuracy of Guy Callendar working in the 1930s who

    demonstrated both land temperatures and carbon dioxide levels had risen over the course of the previous 50 years and proposed that the two were linked. Callendar's ideas were met with wide-spread scepticism, but later studies showed him to be spot-on.

    In the 1950s, the Canadian physicist Gilbert Plass examined the link between increasing carbon emissions due to human activities and global temperatures more closely. In an especially prophetic interview with Time magazine in 1953, he is quoted as saying: "At its present rate of increase, the CO2 in the atmosphere will raise the earth' s average temperature 1.5o Fahrenheit ever 100 years...for centuries to come, if man's industrial growth continues, the earth's climate will continue to grow warmer".


    The one review on Amazon that the book has yet received notes this:

    McGuire lays out how climate change is likely to continue and the impacts it will have on our lives in a stark way. Unlike many environmental writers, he is honest about the uncertainty, telling us 'Despite meticulous and comprehensive modelling, we just don't know how bad things will get, nor can we know.' But any climate change deniers seeing this as an escape clause entirely miss the point. The uncertainty is over how bad things will be, but not over whether or not things will be bad. As we are told, 'tipping points and positive feedback effects are the real flies in the ointment when trying to pin down how bad things will get'.



    In the opening of the book McGuire also makes this observation:

    The post-COP26 reality is this. To have even the tiniest chance of keeping the global average temperature rise below 1.5o C, we need to see emissions down by 45% by 2030. In theory this might be possible, but in the real world - barring some unforeseen miracle it isn't going to happen. Instead, we are on course for a 14 per cent rise by this date that will almost certainly see us shatter that 1.5o C guardrail in less than a decade.
    "It ain't necessarily so
    The things that you're liable
    To read in the Bible
    It ain't necessarily so
    ."

    Sportin' Life
    Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

  • #2
    Ironic that someone who demands that someone must read a book before commenting on it, yet again is offering up a book based solely upon a review.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

    Comment


    • #3
      So many predictions, such a bad track record.

      I was made to prepare for global cooling and nuclear winter.

      Kids today need to prepare for global hotness, nuclear winter and transness.

      They'll be alright.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
        Ironic that someone who demands that someone must read a book before commenting on it, yet again is offering up a book based solely upon a review.
        And the available extracts from the book.

        When I have obtained a copy and read it I shall comment further.
        "It ain't necessarily so
        The things that you're liable
        To read in the Bible
        It ain't necessarily so
        ."

        Sportin' Life
        Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

        Comment


        • #5
          Something interesting that I have read lately that pertains to this thread is that the powers that be in the world of academia are proposing the Anthropocenic Epoch as a scientifically legitimate age of the Earth's geological timeline of epochs, or ages. There is much debate over actually adopting this view, as you could imagine. This age would date from the commencement of human impact on the planet. It's quite likely that the idea of this geological epoch will be in the curriculums of schools soon.

          I don't know a whole lot about about science, or the atmosphere, but if it were up to me, that is, if I ruled the world, the first thing that would stop, as in, cease and desist immediately, would be the deforestations of rainforests. Period. There would no more. It would all halt today, this very minute. It would be a good first step I would think. I do think that it's a good idea to protect the planet, so long as it's truly protecting the planet and the planet's ecosystems.

          All the plastic in the ocean bothers me too.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Machinist View Post
            Something interesting that I have read lately that pertains to this thread is that the powers that be in the world of academia are proposing the Anthropocenic Epoch as a scientifically legitimate age of the Earth's geological timeline of epochs, or ages. There is much debate over actually adopting this view, as you could imagine. This age would date from the commencement of human impact on the planet. It's quite likely that the idea of this geological epoch will be in the curriculums of schools soon.

            I don't know a whole lot about about science, or the atmosphere, but if it were up to me, that is, if I ruled the world, the first thing that would stop, as in, cease and desist immediately, would be the deforestations of rainforests. Period. There would no more. It would all halt today, this very minute. It would be a good first step I would think. I do think that it's a good idea to protect the planet, so long as it's truly protecting the planet and the planet's ecosystems.

            All the plastic in the ocean bothers me too.
            McGuire mention that the destruction of forests is one of the things that needs to stop.

            As for the ocean being used as a garbage bin one might have thought one or two of the world's billionaires could have pooled some of their resources to help clean it up rather than joy-riding into space!
            "It ain't necessarily so
            The things that you're liable
            To read in the Bible
            It ain't necessarily so
            ."

            Sportin' Life
            Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post

              McGuire mention that the destruction of forests is one of the things that needs to stop.

              As for the ocean being used as a garbage bin one might have thought one or two of the world's billionaires could have pooled some of their resources to help clean it up rather than joy-riding into space!
              No Kidding. I think that if all effort and energy was focused on cleaning up the oceans, it would most likely lead to other solutions as well.

              Comment


              • #8
                Eh, I'm not worried. There's no evidence that any changes we might be seeing in the Earth's climate are unusual or alarming.
                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post
                  And the available extracts from the book.
                  Which of course, blatant hypocrite that you are, you incessantly have become a shrill scold toward anyone else who did that.

                  Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post
                  When I have obtained a copy and read it I shall comment further.
                  I won't be holding my breath.

                  Your track record for starting such threads indicates that you will throw the OP under the bus.

                  I'm always still in trouble again

                  "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                  "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                  "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Machinist View Post

                    No Kidding. I think that if all effort and energy was focused on cleaning up the oceans, it would most likely lead to other solutions as well.
                    From other sources, the view is that what has been done cannot be undone. The question now is, can we reduce our impact? That is feasible - but politically unlikely.

                    And the more pressing question is, how do we start planning to survive on a hotter planet?

                    The recent events in Kentucky may be the shape of things to come for that region. Likewise what we experienced last year here with flooding, and what we are experiencing now with very hot weather. The weakening of the Gulf Stream is also another factor to be considered.

                    We know it will be bad, but how bad cannot [as yet] be known. However, as McGuire writes in the extract available courtesy of Amazon

                    It is also the case, research has revealed, that climate scientists - as a tribe - tend to gravitate towards a consensus viewpoint, rather than go out on a limb, and they are inclined to make forecasts that underplay the reality.


                    "It ain't necessarily so
                    The things that you're liable
                    To read in the Bible
                    It ain't necessarily so
                    ."

                    Sportin' Life
                    Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      Which of course, blatant hypocrite that you are, you incessantly have become a shrill scold toward anyone else who did that.


                      I won't be holding my breath.

                      Your track record for starting such threads indicates that you will throw the OP under the bus.

                      Writes the person who despite being asked several times has yet to produce an iota of attested textual or historical evidence to support his delusional fancies.
                      "It ain't necessarily so
                      The things that you're liable
                      To read in the Bible
                      It ain't necessarily so
                      ."

                      Sportin' Life
                      Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post

                        McGuire mention that the destruction of forests is one of the things that needs to stop.

                        As for the ocean being used as a garbage bin one might have thought one or two of the world's billionaires could have pooled some of their resources to help clean it up rather than joy-riding into space!
                        Interestingly, there is a good deal more forested land in the U.S. now than there was a hundred years ago. Still, a fraction of what it was 400 years ago, but forest growth nationally has exceeded harvest since the 1940s with the tree planting efforts that were started in the 1950s really paying off.

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post


                          Writes the person who despite being asked several times has yet to produce an iota of attested textual or historical evidence to support his delusional fancies.
                          The fake historian hates it when actual historians contradict her pronouncements from her comfy chair.

                          I guess that must suck

                          I'm always still in trouble again

                          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                          "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            The fake historian hates it when actual historians contradict her pronouncements from her comfy chair.

                            I guess that must suck
                            No historian has contradicted what I have written. A poseur with delusions is another matter.
                            "It ain't necessarily so
                            The things that you're liable
                            To read in the Bible
                            It ain't necessarily so
                            ."

                            Sportin' Life
                            Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post
                              Emeritus professor, Bill McGuire has just brought out his latest book Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant's Guide.

                              I have not [as yet] read the entire work but from the available text courtesy of Amazon, an article in The Guardian, and a review by one person on Amazon it makes for sobering reading.

                              https://www.theguardian.com/environm...al-catastrophe

                              The publication of Bill McGuire’s latest book, Hothouse Earth, could not be more timely. Appearing in the shops this week, it will be perused by sweltering customers who have just endured record high temperatures across the UK and now face the prospect of weeks of drought to add to their discomfort.

                              And this is just the beginning, insists McGuire, who is emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London. As he makes clear in his uncompromising depiction of the coming climatic catastrophe, we have – for far too long – ignored explicit warnings that rising carbon emissions are dangerously heating the Earth. Now we are going to pay the price for our complacence in the form of storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves that will easily surpass current extremes.

                              The crucial point, he argues, is that there is now no chance of us avoiding a perilous, all-pervasive climate breakdown. We have passed the point of no return and can expect a future in which lethal heatwaves and temperatures in excess of 50C (120F) are common in the tropics; where summers at temperate latitudes will invariably be baking hot, and where our oceans are destined to become warm and acidic. “A child born in 2020 will face a far more hostile world that its grandparents did,” McGuire insists.

                              In this respect, the volcanologist, who was also a member of the UK government’s Natural Hazard Working Group, takes an extreme position. Most other climate experts still maintain we have time left, although not very much, to bring about meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. A rapid drive to net zero and the halting of global warming is still within our grasp, they say.

                              Such claims are dismissed by McGuire. “I know a lot of people working in climate science who say one thing in public but a very different thing in private. In confidence, they are all much more scared about the future we face, but they won’t admit that in public. I call this climate appeasement and I believe it only makes things worse. The world needs to know how bad things are going to get before we can hope to start to tackle the crisis.”

                              McGuire finished writing Hothouse Earth at the end of 2021. He includes many of the record high temperatures that had just afflicted the planet, including extremes that had struck the UK. A few months after he completed his manuscript, and as publication loomed, he found that many of those records had already been broken. “That is the trouble with writing a book about climate breakdown,” says McGuire. “By the time it is published it is already out of date. That is how fast things are moving.”

                              Among the records broken during the book’s editing was the announcement that a temperature of 40.3C was reached in east England on 19 July, the highest ever recorded in the UK. (The country’s previous hottest temperature, 38.7C, was in Cambridge in 2019.)

                              In addition, London’s fire service had to tackle blazes across the capital, with one conflagration destroying 16 homes in Wennington, east London. Crews there had to fight to save the local fire station itself. “Who would have thought that a village on the edge of London would be almost wiped out by wildfires in 2022,” says McGuire. “If this country needs a wake-up call then surely that is it.”

                              Wildfires of unprecedented intensity and ferocity have also swept across Europe, North America and Australia this year, while record rainfall in the midwest led to the devastating flooding in the US’s Yellowstone national park. “And as we head further into 2022, it is already a different world out there,” he adds. “Soon it will be unrecognisable to every one of us.”

                              These changes underline one of the most startling aspects of climate breakdown: the speed with which global average temperature rises translate into extreme weather.

                              “Just look at what is happening already to a world which has only heated up by just over one degree,” says McGuire. “It turns out the climate is changing for the worse far quicker than predicted by early climate models. That’s something that was never expected.”

                              Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, when humanity began pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, global temperatures have risen by just over 1C. At the Cop26 climate meeting in Glasgow last year, it was agreed that every effort should be made to try to limit that rise to 1.5C, although to achieve such a goal, it was calculated that global carbon emissions will have to be reduced by 45% by 2030.

                              “In the real world, that is not going to happen,” says McGuire. “Instead, we are on course for close to a 14% rise in emissions by that date – which will almost certainly see us shatter the 1.5C guardrail in less than a decade.”

                              And we should be in no doubt about the consequences. Anything above 1.5C will see a world plagued by intense summer heat, extreme drought, devastating floods, reduced crop yields, rapidly melting ice sheets and surging sea levels. A rise of 2C and above will seriously threaten the stability of global society, McGuire argues. It should also be noted that according to the most hopeful estimates of emission cut pledges made at Cop26, the world is on course to heat up by between 2.4C and 3C.

                              From this perspective it is clear we can do little to avoid the coming climate breakdown. Instead we need to adapt to the hothouse world that lies ahead and to start taking action to try to stop a bleak situation deteriorating even further, McGuire says. [...] As to the reason for the world’s tragically tardy response, McGuire blames a “conspiracy of ignorance, inertia, poor governance, and obfuscation and lies by climate change deniers that has ensured that we have sleepwalked to within less than half a degree of the dangerous 1.5C climate change guardrail. Soon, barring some sort of miracle, we will crash through it.”

                              The future is forbidding from this perspective, though McGuire stresses that if carbon emissions can be cut substantially in the near future, and if we start to adapt to a much hotter world today, a truly calamitous and unsustainable future can be avoided. The days ahead will be grimmer, but not disastrous. We may not be able to give climate breakdown the slip but we can head off further instalments that would appear as a climate cataclysm bad enough to threaten the very survival of human civilisation.


                              From the available content of the book he draws a direct line from Arkwright's first cotton mills in the late 18th century to the situation in industrialised societies today where the demand for ever more "stuff" has produced an unsustainable exploitation of diminishing resources and which has led to the present climate and ecological crisis.

                              He also cites early scientific warnings and mentions Eunice Foot who in 1856, wrote a paper on the heat absorbing properties of carbon monoxide. John Tyndall took her work further and conducted hundreds of experiments on a range of gases and noted that varying atmospheric levels in carbon dioxide and methane "must produce climate change". He then briefly touches on the work by Svante Arrhenius at the end of the nineteenth century who laid the groundwork for modern ideas that link carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere with global warming. He also mentions the accuracy of Guy Callendar working in the 1930s who

                              demonstrated both land temperatures and carbon dioxide levels had risen over the course of the previous 50 years and proposed that the two were linked. Callendar's ideas were met with wide-spread scepticism, but later studies showed him to be spot-on.

                              In the 1950s, the Canadian physicist Gilbert Plass examined the link between increasing carbon emissions due to human activities and global temperatures more closely. In an especially prophetic interview with Time magazine in 1953, he is quoted as saying: "At its present rate of increase, the CO2 in the atmosphere will raise the earth' s average temperature 1.5o Fahrenheit ever 100 years...for centuries to come, if man's industrial growth continues, the earth's climate will continue to grow warmer".


                              The one review on Amazon that the book has yet received notes this:

                              McGuire lays out how climate change is likely to continue and the impacts it will have on our lives in a stark way. Unlike many environmental writers, he is honest about the uncertainty, telling us 'Despite meticulous and comprehensive modelling, we just don't know how bad things will get, nor can we know.' But any climate change deniers seeing this as an escape clause entirely miss the point. The uncertainty is over how bad things will be, but not over whether or not things will be bad. As we are told, 'tipping points and positive feedback effects are the real flies in the ointment when trying to pin down how bad things will get'.



                              In the opening of the book McGuire also makes this observation:

                              The post-COP26 reality is this. To have even the tiniest chance of keeping the global average temperature rise below 1.5o C, we need to see emissions down by 45% by 2030. In theory this might be possible, but in the real world - barring some unforeseen miracle it isn't going to happen. Instead, we are on course for a 14 per cent rise by this date that will almost certainly see us shatter that 1.5o C guardrail in less than a decade.
                              What do you have to say about the book? I doubt anyone here is interested in your usual argument via hiding behind proxy link.
                              "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
                              - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

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