Trump's influence waning?

[Cow Poke]

I had no idea that Walker was an African-American.

Storybook and the rest, yes ...

Walker TR.jpg

but he definitely doesn't look like an African American.

Go to your room.

Without supper!

[Ronson]

...All the reports say that he's too blinded by the headlights of his election loss to see any peripheral issues.

That is most likely the best analysis. Everything was about him is exactly how he came across during that campaign stop, and the damage that it was causing wasn't something to be factored in.

I agree. Trump has been a different person since his loss. He's been obsessed with it to the exclusion of nearly everything else.

[Cow Poke]

I agree. Trump has been a different person since his loss. He's been obsessed with it to the exclusion of nearly everything else.

Kinda like Hillary?

[rogue06]

Kinda like Hillary?

I think their defeats broke something inside both of them.

[Gondwanaland]

Yesterday's primary in Georgia was not a good day for the former president. Both of the candidates he heavily backed were defeated -- biggly.

Trump has been angry at both Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary Brad Raffensperger since the 2020 election and as retribution for their not going along with his effort to overturn his defeat here, he heavily backed opponents to unseat them.

In Kemp's case, Trump propped up former Senator David Perdue who was defeated in 2020. Perdue remained 20 points or more back the entire race and ended up getting virtually annihilated by a 73.7% to 21.8% margin. That's a +50 point blow out.

This marks the third candidate that Trump has backed for governor who has lost their primary.

As for Raffensperger, he also won quite handedly, defeating Trump-backed Jody Hice by just shy of 20 points -- 52.3% to 33.4%.

Still, his endorsement amounted to a sizeable boost for several candidates elsewhere during the primaries this year. Maybe Georgians haven't forgotten nor forgiven how his antics when he came here to ostensibly campaign for the two Republicans during run-offs for both Senate seats helped the Democrats win in 2021.

I hope so, but I think it's too early to tell.

[Gondwanaland]

So candidates that won with Trump's endorsement would have won anyway, and candidates that lost with Trump's endorsement lost because of that endorsement?

Sounds like "heads, I win; tails, you lose".

Or perhaps, the ones who won, won in spite of his endorsement because they had already demonstrated they could do a good job

[seanD]

Kinda like Hillary?

What makes it exceptionally psychotic with Hillary and her "Russia stole the election spiel" is that she made a lot of the Russia-gate stuff up herself.

[Cow Poke]

What makes it exceptionally psychotic with Hillary droning on about "Russia stole the election spiel" is that she made a lot of the Russia-gate stuff up herself.

Yeah, that's just so precious! Then said, "Hey, LOOK what the media is reporting!!!" :lmbo;

[Mountain Man]

Or perhaps, the ones who won, won in spite of his endorsement because they had already demonstrated they could do a good job

Yes, there are a number of ways to spin it depending on which narrative you prefer.

But, for whatever it's worth, I'm pretty sure Trump's track record is that he has endorsed far more winning candidates than losing ones.

[Gondwanaland]

Yesterday's primary in Georgia was not a good day for the former president. Both of the candidates he heavily backed were defeated -- biggly.

Trump has been angry at both Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary Brad Raffensperger since the 2020 election and as retribution for their not going along with his effort to overturn his defeat here, he heavily backed opponents to unseat them.

In Kemp's case, Trump propped up former Senator David Perdue who was defeated in 2020. Perdue remained 20 points or more back the entire race and ended up getting virtually annihilated by a 73.7% to 21.8% margin. That's a +50 point blow out.

This marks the third candidate that Trump has backed for governor who has lost their primary.

As for Raffensperger, he also won quite handedly, defeating Trump-backed Jody Hice by just shy of 20 points -- 52.3% to 33.4%.

Still, his endorsement amounted to a sizeable boost for several candidates elsewhere during the primaries this year. Maybe Georgians haven't forgotten nor forgiven how his antics when he came here to ostensibly campaign for the two Republicans during run-offs for both Senate seats helped the Democrats win in 2021.

One interesting poll came out last week. A quite sizeable (though just shy of a majority) number of Republicans think it is time to move on from Teump. And many of them are ones who liked him and thought he was a good president but think it is time for new leaders for the Party:

https://pos.org/wp-content/uploads/2...22-Release.pdf

So 10 percent disliked him or thought he was a bad president and think it is time to move to new leaders. 33 percent of Republicans think he was a good president or liked him but think it is time to move to new leaders.

And that's among Republican primary voters (the ones more who vote in a primary also tend to be the ones most likely to vote in a general election even if the base isn't all that fired up)

[Gondwanaland]

Yes, there are a number of ways to spin it depending on which narrative you prefer.

But, for whatever it's worth, I'm pretty sure Trump's track record is that he has endorsed far more winning candidates than losing ones.

Perhaps, though it seems the winning ones were early, losing ones are more common now.

[Gondwanaland]

Go to your room.

Without supper!

The eyes of a ranger are upon you.

[CivilDiscourse]

Perhaps, though it seems the winning ones were early, losing ones are more common now.

More importantly, from an analysis perspective, it's important to know if the endorsement was made during an influential time. If Trump endorses a primary candidate running unopposed, his endorsement is worthless. If he endorsed a candidate who is well ahead of the pack, and that candidate wins, It's hard to say if the endorsement was anything more than a bandwagon endorsement.

It's very hard in situations like this to pull out anything causal instead of merely correlative.

[Gondwanaland]

More importantly, from an analysis perspective, it's important to know if the endorsement was made during an influential time. If Trump endorses a primary candidate running unopposed, his endorsement is worthless. If he endorsed a candidate who is well ahead of the pack, and that candidate wins, It's hard to say if the endorsement was anything more than a bandwagon endorsement.

It's very hard in situations like this to pull out anything causal instead of merely correlative.

Very true.

[Mountain Man]

It's very hard in situations like this to pull out anything causal instead of merely correlative.

But that hasn't stopped the media (and others) from crowing about Trump's supposedly fading star after Kemp beat Perdue, even though there was never much of a chance Kemp would lose.