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  • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
    That sounds a lot like what we see in cities like NYC, Chicago, Washington D.C. ... Guns are banned but you can get one if you can show just cause.

    Ask those living there how that's working out for them. If you are an average city and want to buy a firearm to protect your home or maybe that business that's been robbed twice in the last three years, your chances of success are very small. I'm not saying it never happens, but you have to be extraordinarily lucky or connected. If those sort of people have a firearm the chances are good they don't have a permit.

    OTOH, relatives, friends, major contributors and business associates of politicians, as well as celebrities (those without disqualifying arrest records) don't have to worry. It appears that if you live in a high rise with security you are likely to have more just cause for needing one to protect your home than if you live in a less affluent area.

    And given these gun-free meccas typically have much higher rates of gun-related violence than areas where the laws aren't as restrictive, that kind of let's you know how well those laws work.
    As I said, they worked here quite successfully, but the start point was radically different. I can't see that imposing the same laws in America would produce the same result.

    Murder rates overall were declining here until two years ago, but they have begun to climb again (bladed weapons of various types, mostly). Short term hiccough or a trend? Too early to tell yet, but the groups contributing to the increase lead me to believe it is a trend. Such mass murders as we do see, seldom as they occur, are within families or other "in-groups," not random.
    1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
    Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
    .
    "It is not divine truth that makes the man seem more innocent in what is equally sinful, but human wrong-headedness." AUGUSTINE: re adultery

    "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

    Comment


    • Originally posted by dirtfloor View Post

      Good discussion about the legal stuff in OA599.
      I have no idea what you're talking about. What is OA599?
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • Originally posted by tabibito View Post

        As I said, they worked here quite successfully,
        Not really.

        but the start point was radically different. I can't see that imposing the same laws in America would produce the same result.

        Murder rates overall were declining here until two years ago, but they have begun to climb again (bladed weapons of various types, mostly). Short term hiccough or a trend? Too early to tell yet, but the groups contributing to the increase lead me to believe it is a trend. Such mass murders as we do see, seldom as they occur, are within families or other "in-groups," not random.
        And murder rates here in the US were overall declining as well for decades, without any gun ban.
        "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
        - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

        Comment


        • Originally posted by tabibito View Post

          I don't find stats that support the argument.
          Wikipedia has a list that I assume is reasonably accurate.

          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...s_in_Australia

          If you count up the number of mass killings (four or more killed not including the attacker) in the 20 years prior to the gun ban, and the 20 years following, you'll find there isn't much difference in the number, only in the weapon of choice. I've also seen other statistics that show that while violent crimes and suicides committed with guns declined in the years following, the overall rates of violent crime and suicide remained largely unchanged.

          So while Australia might have solved their "gun problem", it turns out that was only a symptom.
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

            Wikipedia has a list that I assume is reasonably accurate.

            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...s_in_Australia

            If you count up the number of mass killings (four or more killed not including the attacker) in the 20 years prior to the gun ban, and the 20 years following, you'll find there isn't much difference in the number, only in the weapon of choice. I've also seen other statistics that show that while violent crimes and suicides committed with guns declined in the years following, the overall rates of violent crime and suicide remained largely unchanged.

            So while Australia might have solved their "gun problem", it turns out that was only a symptom.
            Your reference looks accurate. And as I said - mass killings still occur: Most are "in-group" (that is, the murderer(s) target victims in their social circle), scant few of them are random. Such things as murder of members of the murderers own family weren't going to be prevented by gun control laws. As far as I know, guns weren't the usual weapon of choice for those kinds of crimes anyway.
            Last edited by tabibito; 05-27-2022, 06:09 PM.
            1Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω
            Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
            .
            "It is not divine truth that makes the man seem more innocent in what is equally sinful, but human wrong-headedness." AUGUSTINE: re adultery

            "The synoptic gospels claim that Jesus was crucified on the 15th day of Nisan and buried on the 14th day of Nisan:" Majority Consensus

            Comment


            • Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
              A”good man with a gun” doesn’t work.
              You wouldn't know a "good man" from your backside, aside from the fact that you are, not surprisingly, incredibly wrong, once again.
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by seanD View Post

                I was watching the police interview of Nikolas Cruz (the primary officer was apparently an expert in this field), and it was fascinating in a very ominous sense. It was clear that Cruz was faking like he was crazy to get a lighter sentence, and the video commentator that did the analysis breakdown showed how manipulative he was trying to be. There was even a moment the cop leaves temporarily and you can see Cruz smile to himself and subtly emulate the shooting with his hand like he was enjoying the fantasy of it. Some folks are just pure evil and that's that. Evil is real. I don't think mental health can solve that.
                As someone who's interviewed pure evil and interviewed those with clear mental health issues after they've committed previous crimes, and as someone who has done some research into these mass shootings, I'm of the opinion that many of these shooters have deep-seated mental health issues. As a Christian, I can't rule out negative spiritual influence, but I also see no reason to explain it all in spiritual terms. We can blame anything on that, nearly always without evidence.

                I think the phenomenon is the result of several issues: a desire for masked suicide (intentionally creating a situation in which one has to kill oneself or gets killed), a culture that glorifies violence, a culture of toxic masculinity, a culture wherein young men struggle to express their masculinity in a healthy way, and a toxic social media environment. These are young men who are highly unstable, seeking a way to assert their masculinity and kill themselves without making it obvious that suicide is the real goal. If they shoot themselves quietly in their homes, it wouldn't even make the local news. But if they inflict such horrors on others, they die in a way where people may hate them....but they aren't pitied. At least, that's what I imagine they think. At least, that's what I picked up from the academic literature on this I read several years ago.
                "If you believe, take the first step, it leads to Jesus Christ. If you don't believe, take the first step all the same, for you are bidden to take it. No one wants to know about your faith or unbelief, your orders are to perform the act of obedience on the spot. Then you will find yourself in the situation where faith becomes possible and where faith exists in the true sense of the word." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

                  When asked a hypothetical like that, my mind always goes immediately to Peter --- "even if EVERYBODY abandons you, Lord, I won't!"

                  But, to be honest - no, I'm not one to back down once I commit to a fight.

                  I still can't figure this, though.... how is the gunman engaging them and running them out of the building if he's barricaded in the classroom and they can't get in?

                  There is SO MUCH about this that just stinks out loud.
                  I'll wait for more information before making any final judgments. However, at present it looks like the officers showed up earlier and got shot/shot at. Then the shooter entered a classroom. Entry was made to the building but they couldn't force entry into the classroom. Which they finally opened with a key. And then the shooter died. It also sounds like all the victims were in the same classroom. So my best guess is that the 'wait' which has been thus far criticized was after he was barricaded in the classroom, and had likely already shot everyone.

                  Of course, all of that assessment is subject to change. But people keep acting like a barricaded shooter is the same thing as an active shooter.....and, they're not.
                  "If you believe, take the first step, it leads to Jesus Christ. If you don't believe, take the first step all the same, for you are bidden to take it. No one wants to know about your faith or unbelief, your orders are to perform the act of obedience on the spot. Then you will find yourself in the situation where faith becomes possible and where faith exists in the true sense of the word." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by myth View Post

                    As someone who's interviewed pure evil and interviewed those with clear mental health issues after they've committed previous crimes, and as someone who has done some research into these mass shootings, I'm of the opinion that many of these shooters have deep-seated mental health issues. As a Christian, I can't rule out negative spiritual influence, but I also see no reason to explain it all in spiritual terms. We can blame anything on that, nearly always without evidence.

                    I think the phenomenon is the result of several issues: a desire for masked suicide (intentionally creating a situation in which one has to kill oneself or gets killed), a culture that glorifies violence, a culture of toxic masculinity, a culture wherein young men struggle to express their masculinity in a healthy way, and a toxic social media environment. These are young men who are highly unstable, seeking a way to assert their masculinity and kill themselves without making it obvious that suicide is the real goal. If they shoot themselves quietly in their homes, it wouldn't even make the local news. But if they inflict such horrors on others, they die in a way where people may hate them....but they aren't pitied. At least, that's what I imagine they think. At least, that's what I picked up from the academic literature on this I read several years ago.
                    Yep, it appears basically all of these shooters have some sort of mental illness, whether it is recognized at the time or not (sometimes it's only later looking back at things family and friends say that hints of their mental illness come to light).

                    https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2021-13575-001

                    Has the role of mental health problems in mass shootings been significantly underestimated?


                    Abstract



                    Prior research suggests that approximately two-thirds of public mass shooters exhibit signs of mental illness. This study analyzed whether that means there are 2 psychological types of perpetrators (some mentally ill, some mentally healthy), or whether almost all perpetrators are likely to have mental health problems. Using a database of 171 public mass shooters who attacked in the United States from 1966 to 2019, we tested for statistically significant differences between perpetrators with and without diagnoses or signs of mental illness. We also closely examined the most lethal perpetrators since 2012, and the most “mentally healthy” perpetrators according to prior coding. Correlates of mental illness were approximately equally common among perpetrators, whether they were believed to be mentally ill or not. Of the variables we examined, data availability provided the best explanation for coding of mental illness, not any trait or life experience. Further evidence suggested that even the most “mentally healthy” perpetrators could be recoded as having signs of mental illness or suicidality, or were clear outliers, or may not qualify as public mass shooters. The most lethal perpetrators exhibited signs of mental illness or suicidal intent (or both) in all cases. When people engage in concerning behaviors that suggest a mass shooting risk, their mental health should be carefully assessed alongside other warning signs. However, it is important to avoid treating people with mental illness like criminals, because social stigma reduces the likelihood that they will ask for, and receive, the psychological help they need. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)


                    The problem is, how do we identify them, and differentiate them from others with mental illness who don't act in such a manner. And more importantly, other than hardening schools and intervening when there is very clear signs of problems, how do we do that and still safeguard 2nd amendment rights and not slide down the slope of "pre-crime" a la Minority Report, if we do so?

                    I think one thing is clear - we need a complete overhaul of our mental health system focused on affordability, ease of access, and de-stigmatization in society of mental illness and mental health treatment.

                    Sadly I think that's something that neither Democrats and Republicans, actually want.
                    "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
                    - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by myth View Post

                      I'll wait for more information before making any final judgments. However, at present it looks like the officers showed up earlier and got shot/shot at. Then the shooter entered a classroom. Entry was made to the building but they couldn't force entry into the classroom. Which they finally opened with a key. And then the shooter died. It also sounds like all the victims were in the same classroom. So my best guess is that the 'wait' which has been thus far criticized was after he was barricaded in the classroom, and had likely already shot everyone.
                      That has proven not to be true.

                      Of course, all of that assessment is subject to change. But people keep acting like a barricaded shooter is the same thing as an active shooter.....and, they're not.
                      No, they're not -- but it's clear that the change in protocol from active shooter to barricaded shooter was a bad call. At no time - from the time he got out of the wrecked truck to the time he was killed - was he a "barricaded shooter" as opposed to active shooter.

                      And I'll add to something I said later....

                      There is the
                      A) Active shooter - which he was the entire time
                      2) The barricaded subject

                      and a second class of 2) --- a barricaded subject with hostages.


                      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by myth View Post

                        I'll wait for more information before making any final judgments. However, at present it looks like the officers showed up earlier and got shot/shot at.
                        That was very early reports, but it has since been admitted that the shooter crashed his grandmother's truck, strolled around for 12 minutes outside the school (police were called 2 minutes in about a man with a gun), and entered unopposed through a door a teacher had propped open not long before the entry
                        Then the shooter entered a classroom. Entry was made to the building but they couldn't force entry into the classroom. Which they finally opened with a key. And then the shooter died. It also sounds like all the victims were in the same classroom. So my best guess is that the 'wait' which has been thus far criticized was after he was barricaded in the classroom, and had likely already shot everyone.

                        Of course, all of that assessment is subject to change. But people keep acting like a barricaded shooter is the same thing as an active shooter.....and, they're not.
                        Wrong. Students inside the classroom were calling 911 (to the point that they were essentially giving a grim tally of people still left alive and people dead) all through the entire hour+ sitting-on-their-thumbs the police did. The shooter was active and shooting throughout that time

                        This was an active shooter the entire time, and the cowards wearing the badges outside tased, pepper sprayed, and handcuffed parents while their children were inside dying, instead of going inside themselves.
                        Last edited by Gondwanaland; 05-27-2022, 08:21 PM.
                        "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
                        - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post
                          That was very early reports, but it has since been admitted that the shooter crashed his grandmother's truck, strolled around for 12 minutes outside the school (police were called 2 minutes in about a man with a gun), and entered unopposed through a door a teacher had propped open not long before the entry

                          Wrong. Students inside the classroom were calling 911 all through the entire hour+ sitting-on-their-thumbs the police did. The shooter was active and shooting throughout that time

                          This was an active shooter the entire time, and the cowards wearing the badges outside tased, pepper sprayed, and handcuffed parents while their children were inside dying, instead of going inside themselves.
                          One correction to your otherwise correct correction --- It was only 5 minutes (and change) from the time he got out of the truck to the time he entered the school through the PROPPED OPEN door.

                          (according to actual 911 transcripts)
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

                            That has proven not to be true.



                            No, they're not -- but it's clear that the change in protocol from active shooter to barricaded shooter was a bad call. At no time - from the time he got out of the wrecked truck to the time he was killed - was he a "barricaded shooter" as opposed to active shooter.

                            And I'll add to something I said later....

                            There is the
                            A) Active shooter - which he was the entire time
                            2) The barricaded subject

                            and a second class of 2) --- a barricaded subject with hostages.

                            If he was still shooting while they were in barricaded subject mode, then things went very wrongly indeed.
                            "If you believe, take the first step, it leads to Jesus Christ. If you don't believe, take the first step all the same, for you are bidden to take it. No one wants to know about your faith or unbelief, your orders are to perform the act of obedience on the spot. Then you will find yourself in the situation where faith becomes possible and where faith exists in the true sense of the word." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post
                              That was very early reports, but it has since been admitted that the shooter crashed his grandmother's truck, strolled around for 12 minutes outside the school (police were called 2 minutes in about a man with a gun), and entered unopposed through a door a teacher had propped open not long before the entry

                              Wrong. Students inside the classroom were calling 911 (to the point that they were essentially giving a grim tally of people still left alive and people dead) all through the entire hour+ sitting-on-their-thumbs the police did. The shooter was active and shooting throughout that time

                              This was an active shooter the entire time, and the cowards wearing the badges outside tased, pepper sprayed, and handcuffed parents while their children were inside dying, instead of going inside themselves.
                              I'm not sure I can find much fault for those on perimeter -- it's a necessary task. What I can find fault with is those inside if they were not actively trying to breach if gunshots were still being fired.
                              "If you believe, take the first step, it leads to Jesus Christ. If you don't believe, take the first step all the same, for you are bidden to take it. No one wants to know about your faith or unbelief, your orders are to perform the act of obedience on the spot. Then you will find yourself in the situation where faith becomes possible and where faith exists in the true sense of the word." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

                                One correction to your otherwise correct correction --- It was only 5 minutes (and change) from the time he got out of the truck to the time he entered the school through the PROPPED OPEN door.

                                (according to actual 911 transcripts)
                                looks like you're correct, I think I did some dodgy math, looking at CNN's timeline. And apparently (hadn't heard this before) the school resource officer heard about the shooting and drove to the school, but mistook a teacher further down as the suspect and in doing so drove right past the actual shooter before the shooter had even entered the building:

                                11:31 a.m.: The suspect reaches the last row of vehicles at the school parking lot and begins shooting at the school, McCraw said. Patrol vehicles begin to arrive at the funeral home.

                                There was no school resource officer that confronted the suspect outside the school, as officials had previously described, McCraw said. A school resource officer was not on scene but heard the 911 call about a man with a gun, drove to the area and sped to the back of the school, to a person he thought was the suspect but was a teacher, McCraw said.

                                "In doing so, (the school resource officer) drove right by the suspect, who was hunkered down behind a vehicle, where he began shooting at the school," McCraw said. Multiple shots were fired by the suspect, he added.
                                "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
                                - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

                                Comment

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