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Should We Defend Taiwan...

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  • #16
    Originally posted by seer View Post
    With our military? Any thoughts? What do Australians or New Zealanders think?
    To the best of our ability, we should fully and vigorously honor any commitments we have made -- to Taiwan, Ukraine, or whoever.

    And if we ever had doubts about following through, the time to extricate ourselves from those commitments is NOT when the proverbial clock is at five minutes to midnight.
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    • #17
      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
      Despite being against the US defending Taiwan, I disagree with you here. Biden saying that the US will defend Taiwan, and saying so forcefully, might mean the Chinese believe it and so don't attack. This would be true regardless of whether Biden would actually defend Taiwan. Biden is potentially saving lives with his words.

      The first Iraq war infamously occurred because the US failed to say that it would defend Kuwait. Saddam Hussein decided that what he was hearing from the US meant that he could invade Kuwait without US intervention, and so did. A huge number of people died as a result. Though the US eventually decided it would intervene, the entire war could have been avoided if the US had simply told Saddam in clear terms that he could not attack Kuwait without US intervention against him.

      For this reason it's important for leaders, especially those perceived as being more peaceable, to be tougher with their words than they are actually prepared to be with their actions. You can always choose to not intervene if an invasion happens, but you absolutely don't want to encourage an invasion by saying you wouldn't intervene.
      Well, if that were the case, then perhaps.

      But instead, When Biden has said 'forcefully' that the US will defend Taiwan he proceeded to then contradict himself, and the next day his staff came out to try to correct what he said and handwave it away.

      While it might be important for leaders to be tougher with their words than being prepared to be with their actions (which itself can be problematic if one gets called out and everyone sees you were bluffing), having a schizophrenic bunch of words between your leader and his own administration, however, is not a good thing. And that's what we have with brain-dead Biden and his admin.
      "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
      - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Thoughtful Monk View Post

        Sorry but China controls the West economically.
        It's a two-way street. The arrangement has been a boon for China.

        Look at how many companies and the NBA bow to China whenever they object to something. Are you paying attention to what China is doing in the south China sea? After taking over Tiawan, I'll bet they would love to see their troops occupying Japan as revenge for WWII.
        They have no interest in Japan.

        Have you notice how they haven't done anything practical to rein in North Korea? The economic approach to China, started in 1990's and thinking if they become middle-class, they'll become good citizens of the world, has FAILED.
        I don't know where you're getting that from. There was no plan to make a communist country "middle class." That doesn't even make sense.

        Biden is doing good by building up alliances. I think one of the pluses of the Trump administration is the raising awareness of China's plans.

        I think you need to take some time to see what China is up to before you talk about controlling China.
        Well, I think you need to coordinate your thoughts because you're not making much sense on the subject.
        "You should just assume going forward that if I am ever wrong it is a typo" - Backup
        "
        Reality simply does not change based upon consensus or desire." - rogue

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Starlight View Post
          Despite being against the US defending Taiwan, I disagree with you here. Biden saying that the US will defend Taiwan, and saying so forcefully, might mean the Chinese believe it and so don't attack. This would be true regardless of whether Biden would actually defend Taiwan. Biden is potentially saving lives with his words.
          China doesn't take Biden very seriously, he won't do anything to upset his schmoozy family deals. But his blustering is an embarrassment to China, and in that sense provocative. I doubt they appreciate being challenged by this fool on the world stage.

          The first Iraq war infamously occurred because the US failed to say that it would defend Kuwait. Saddam Hussein decided that what he was hearing from the US meant that he could invade Kuwait without US intervention, and so did. A huge number of people died as a result. Though the US eventually decided it would intervene, the entire war could have been avoided if the US had simply told Saddam in clear terms that he could not attack Kuwait without US intervention against him.
          It happened because Thatcher convinced Bush that the US should play 'world cop' in the post-Cold War world. Mistake Numero Uno.

          For this reason it's important for leaders, especially those perceived as being more peaceable, to be tougher with their words than they are actually prepared to be with their actions. You can always choose to not intervene if an invasion happens, but you absolutely don't want to encourage an invasion by saying you wouldn't intervene.
          If China was planning on an attack, they would test the waters first. They haven't been (to the best of my knowledge). The U.S. has always been vague about what it would do, and I'm sure China would try to find out first. American Democrats love to bluster, condemn, and wag their fingers; very showy Hollywood types. And because of that, their words don't mean very much (do we all remember Obama's "red line?").
          "You should just assume going forward that if I am ever wrong it is a typo" - Backup
          "
          Reality simply does not change based upon consensus or desire." - rogue

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Starlight View Post
            On balance, no. The US getting into a direct war with China could too easily escalate. Taiwan isn't worth that.

            Major reasons I think Taiwan isn't worth that is that (a) it was historically part of China, (b) it's directly adjacent to China, (c) it's inhabited by people of Chinese descent who speak Chinese. As I've said before I'm pretty apathetic about international intervention in these kinds of situations, which I tend to regard more as a civil war than an international conflict.

            Compare to the reasons for defending Taiwan: (1) just generally preventing one country ever invading another, (2) defending a region that wants independence and democracy because those are goods, (3) stopping China expanding because China is viewed as a geopolitical threat, (4) legacy of supporting anti-communist elites from the Cold War, with Taiwan being controlled by the elites who fled the communist regime in China, (5) Taiwan produces the most advanced computer chips which the US uses. I think of that list, 1-2 are good reasons, but 3-5 are dodgy ones.

            On balance it seems reasonable to let China have Taiwan because it was historically part of China and is inhabited by Chinese people.

            If China started invading unrelated countries, that is a different matter. Then you are potentially in WW3 territory already, and US involvement in such a situation is not really an escalation.

            Not sure why you're asking this? Is this another attempt to pretend China is about to invade those countries? Look at a map, those countries are half way around the world from China. If China were to ever invade those countries it would have already invaded half the rest of the world. It's like fantasizing that China might launch and invasion of your area of New England specifically... why, when the rest of the US is closer to China?


            Despite being against the US defending Taiwan, I disagree with you here. Biden saying that the US will defend Taiwan, and saying so forcefully, might mean the Chinese believe it and so don't attack. This would be true regardless of whether Biden would actually defend Taiwan. Biden is potentially saving lives with his words.

            The first Iraq war infamously occurred because the US failed to say that it would defend Kuwait. Saddam Hussein decided that what he was hearing from the US meant that he could invade Kuwait without US intervention, and so did. A huge number of people died as a result. Though the US eventually decided it would intervene, the entire war could have been avoided if the US had simply told Saddam in clear terms that he could not attack Kuwait without US intervention against him.

            For this reason it's important for leaders, especially those perceived as being more peaceable, to be tougher with their words than they are actually prepared to be with their actions. You can always choose to not intervene if an invasion happens, but you absolutely don't want to encourage an invasion by saying you wouldn't intervene.
            His "forceful" statement was walked back making old Joe look exactly like what he is -- weak and incompetent.

            I wonder how many lives that'll save.

            LGB!

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            • #21
              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              His "forceful" statement was walked back making old Joe look exactly like what he is -- weak and incompetent.

              I wonder how many lives that'll save.

              LGB!
              That was my take away.

              1. He was not forceful. He sounded very "distracted" when he said it. He didn't sound sure of himself.
              2. The white house just instantly walked it back showing that he had no idea what he was talking about and that Biden is not in control of the USA or his own Presidency.

              Now if Trump had said "Yes, we will defend Taiwan if China tries anything" - THAT would be believable and I think the right message to send. Whether we actually would intervene militarily or not, that is a question for when it actually happens. But I think the message we need to send is a warning to China not to even try it. Something we should have sent out when Russia was sitting on Ukraine's border.

              But Biden just doesn't have the presence or believably to make such statements. He is weak and everyone knows it. But I actually have to give him some props for even stating that we would defend Taiwan, even though it was a very unbelievable and weak statement.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                That was my take away.

                1. He was not forceful. He sounded very "distracted" when he said it. He didn't sound sure of himself.
                2. The white house just instantly walked it back showing that he had no idea what he was talking about and that Biden is not in control of the USA or his own Presidency.

                Now if Trump had said "Yes, we will defend Taiwan if China tries anything" - THAT would be believable and I think the right message to send. Whether we actually would intervene militarily or not, that is a question for when it actually happens. But I think the message we need to send is a warning to China not to even try it. Something we should have sent out when Russia was sitting on Ukraine's border.

                But Biden just doesn't have the presence or believably to make such statements. He is weak and everyone knows it. But I actually have to give him some props for even stating that we would defend Taiwan, even though it was a very unbelievable and weak statement.
                I'm sure it was just a coincidence that the only presidency that Putin did not make a land grab during their Administration wasn't the Obamessiah's, the shrub's, or the demented duffer's -- it was OMB's.

                I'm always still in trouble again

                "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by seanD View Post

                  Apparently we get quite a bit of iron and steel from Ukraine, but not enough that we can't compensate for from other sources. As far as the food effects on EU countries, that's EU's problem. They have money and resources so let them handle it. I have a big problem enriching defense contractors and corrupt Ukrainian officials, but I have no problem with humanitarian assistance to countries negatively affected by all this. But, of course, whether we can afford it and how much that help is at the expense of our own citizens is an argument that also can't be ignored.
                  Biden already shot this in the foot - several times over. The humanitarian aid, I mean. Idiot extended the E15 nonsense - that incentivizes planting feed grade corn instead of food grade wheat. Right at the time when we should be opening up acreage and producing food we're producing cow feed for cars.

                  I'm not particularly anti ethanol - but we HAVE the capacity to produce more than enough food to replace both Ukraine and Russia - we did it for fifty years, we can do it now. But Biden hasn't done anything to make this happen and most of the USDA stuff impedes production to keep agricultural profits.

                  "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                  "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                    That was my take away.

                    1. He was not forceful. He sounded very "distracted" when he said it. He didn't sound sure of himself.
                    2. The white house just instantly walked it back showing that he had no idea what he was talking about and that Biden is not in control of the USA or his own Presidency.

                    Now if Trump had said "Yes, we will defend Taiwan if China tries anything" - THAT would be believable and I think the right message to send. Whether we actually would intervene militarily or not, that is a question for when it actually happens. But I think the message we need to send is a warning to China not to even try it. Something we should have sent out when Russia was sitting on Ukraine's border.

                    But Biden just doesn't have the presence or believably to make such statements. He is weak and everyone knows it. But I actually have to give him some props for even stating that we would defend Taiwan, even though it was a very unbelievable and weak statement.
                    If it were Russia, I'd agree but China is HYPER sensitive and unlikely to forget. Also, it's not the first time he's said things about Taiwan like that. Further, the state department is making little changes - that all annoy the heck out of China.

                    After the Ukraine invasion, China won't believe that the West, especially the US, won't intervene at least indirectly. Which is good - because most of our stance on Taiwan was at their behest - and both Taiwan and the US are tired of the charade.
                    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                    My Personal Blog

                    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

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                    • #25
                      To answer the OP: Yeppers, we'll defend Taiwan. And it's far more likely that we'd intervene directly. China isn't a peer and no one's deluded enough to mistake them for one (cute navy - and at least their aircraft carriers don't need AAA like Russia's carrier does - call us when you get an actual super carrier or have a range of more than 1000 miles). China - specifically the CCP - is increasingly belligerent and frankly, we don't need them mucking up SE Asia. Taiwan is crucial to controlling China's access to the Pacific so forget the semiconductors - Taiwan is strategically important to the US.

                      FYI: China would have to be off its rocker to try and Taiwan might not even need us. The US considered invading Taiwan (then Formosa) during WWII - and decided it was next to impossible. Very little has changed in that regard.
                      "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                      "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                      My Personal Blog

                      My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                      Quill Sword

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Teallaura View Post

                        Biden already shot this in the foot - several times over. The humanitarian aid, I mean. Idiot extended the E15 nonsense - that incentivizes planting feed grade corn instead of food grade wheat. Right at the time when we should be opening up acreage and producing food we're producing cow feed for cars.

                        I'm not particularly anti ethanol - but we HAVE the capacity to produce more than enough food to replace both Ukraine and Russia - we did it for fifty years, we can do it now. But Biden hasn't done anything to make this happen and most of the USDA stuff impedes production to keep agricultural profits.

                        He's the "transition candidate." Build back different. Tear down the old and replace it with a new.
                        "What am I doing here?" -- Joe Biden 2021

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