What's next in the abortion battle?

[Alien]

I've said I won't debate the rights and wrongs of abortion itself. So please don't get into that here, there's lot's of other places to do that. I'm serious about that. Please abide by it.

Let's say the draft opinion just leaked (and confirmed as accurate) does pretty much represent the final SCOTUS decision. Roe v Wade and Casey are gone. Regulation of abortion is up for grabs and will be different between the States. What's likely to happen? We have a block of states that will pass legislation to make abortion illegal, some "trigger" bills already exist. Many States will or already have legislation protecting abortion. The country as a whole (that is the people) seem to be well divided on what they want, with, if you believe the polls, a majority in favor of choice.

A federal law seems unlikely to appear any time soon, so it will be in the hands of the States.

Pro choice States and people will attempt to provide abortion services to as many people outside their boundaries as they can. Amazon (as an example) has announced that its health plan will cover transportation out of state for abortions. Other companies will no doubt join in.

Pro Life States will of course do all they can to stop abortions within their own boundaries. Will they try to stop their citizens traveling to other States as well? Crossing State boundaries makes it a Federal matter. What will the Federal Government do?

Will Texas and other imitators drop their "vigilante" law now that they can ban abortion more directly?

This is going to be an almighty mess. Will the country crack apart?

I'm sure many of you will raise other questions (and answers) which I wholeheartedly welcome.

[CivilDiscourse]

I've said I won't debate the rights and wrongs of abortion itself. So please don't get into that here, there's lot's of other places to do that. I'm serious about that. Please abide by it.

Let's say the draft opinion just leaked (and confirmed as accurate) does pretty much represent the final SCOTUS decision. Roe v Wade and Casey are gone. Regulation of abortion is up for grabs and will be different between the States. What's likely to happen? We have a block of states that will pass legislation to make abortion illegal, some "trigger" bills already exist. Many States will or already have legislation protecting abortion. The country as a whole (that is the people) seem to be well divided on what they want, with, if you believe the polls, a majority in favor of choice.

A federal law seems unlikely to appear any time soon, so it will be in the hands of the States.

Pro choice States and people will attempt to provide abortion services to as many people outside their boundaries as they can. Amazon (as an example) has announced that its health plan will cover transportation out of state for abortions. Other companies will no doubt join in.

Pro Life States will of course do all they can to stop abortions within their own boundaries. Will they try to stop their citizens traveling to other States as well? Crossing State boundaries makes it a Federal matter. What will the Federal Government do?

Will Texas and other imitators drop their "vigilante" law now that they can ban abortion more directly?

This is going to be an almighty mess. Will the country crack apart?

I'm sure many of you will raise other questions (and answers) which I wholeheartedly welcome.

Well, blue states will move to protect, red states will try to restrict. Once the dust settles, the next logical thing will be the states trying to punish other states for having political positions opposite theirs. My first guess is inter-state economic sanctions from one side towards the other. California has already released that particular Genie, and I expect that they'll add states that ban abortion to their list of sanctioned states. I don't know which state will be the first to go the next step beyond California's "no state funds" sanction, but I expect one will, and they'll try to go a bit more extreme like "No state funds to companies that do business in These states".

Within red states, citizens will try to lock in rights through state courts, claiming that under the state constitution abortion should be allowed. (See fights on gerrymandering after Scotus declared it political and walked away).


At the federal level, I expect one-side or the other to try and push their law. If left breaks the filibuster and packs the courts, hold on to your hat as the pendulum is going to start swinging wildly.

[Alien]

Thanks to CivilDiscourse for reminding me (in another thread) about abortion by drugs. They can be sent by mail and will be very difficult to control.

Another subject for discussion!

[rogue06]

I've said I won't debate the rights and wrongs of abortion itself. So please don't get into that here, there's lot's of other places to do that. I'm serious about that. Please abide by it.

Let's say the draft opinion just leaked (and confirmed as accurate) does pretty much represent the final SCOTUS decision. Roe v Wade and Casey are gone. Regulation of abortion is up for grabs and will be different between the States. What's likely to happen? We have a block of states that will pass legislation to make abortion illegal, some "trigger" bills already exist. Many States will or already have legislation protecting abortion. The country as a whole (that is the people) seem to be well divided on what they want, with, if you believe the polls, a majority in favor of choice.

A federal law seems unlikely to appear any time soon, so it will be in the hands of the States.

Pro choice States and people will attempt to provide abortion services to as many people outside their boundaries as they can. Amazon (as an example) has announced that its health plan will cover transportation out of state for abortions. Other companies will no doubt join in.

Pro Life States will of course do all they can to stop abortions within their own boundaries. Will they try to stop their citizens traveling to other States as well? Crossing State boundaries makes it a Federal matter. What will the Federal Government do?

Will Texas and other imitators drop their "vigilante" law now that they can ban abortion more directly?

This is going to be an almighty mess. Will the country crack apart?

I'm sure many of you will raise other questions (and answers) which I wholeheartedly welcome.

It is difficult to determine "what's next" until the actual decision is made

[seer]

Will they try to stop their citizens traveling to other States as well? Crossing State boundaries makes it a Federal matter. What will the Federal Government do?

Will Texas and other imitators drop their "vigilante" law now that they can ban abortion more directly?

This is going to be an almighty mess. Will the country crack apart?

I'm sure many of you will raise other questions (and answers) which I wholeheartedly welcome.

1. No, no state will attempt to stop citizens from traveling.

2. Texas would have no more need of the vigilante law.

3. This will not, in itself, cause the country to crack up - but it is one more sign of the large divide between the left (insane) and right (sane).

[seanD]

What to expect?

The left to get much more insane, violent, bloody, and macabre in their protestations. One guy self-immolated in protest of climate change. Maybe we'll see live abortions in public as protests? Who knows.

[Teallaura]

Not much. Turns out that free contraceptives and waning public support have been reducing the number of abortions for decades. The Democrats will lose Congress and probably collapse by January. Regardless, they will likely drop the issue in July unless it actually gains traction beyond their leftist base.

I expect the issue, like slavery before it, will chug on with a minority until it fades from polite discussion. Eventually it will be one of the things our descendants call us barbaric for.

[NorrinRadd]

What to expect?

The left to get much more insane, violent, bloody, and macabre in their protestations. One guy self-immolated in protest of climate change. Maybe we'll see live abortions in public as protests? Who knows.

Can't wait to see some wackadoodle guy-identifying-as-pregnant-woman "protest" by jamming a coat-hanger up his hoo-hah.

[tabibito]

Weird and outrageous comments aren't the sole preserve of the left it seems.

Republican candidate Regan got a drubbing in elections. It seems that with his comment "when rape is inevitable, the woman should lay back and enjoy it" managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of certain victory.

[NorrinRadd]

Weird and outrageous comments aren't the sole preserve of the left it seems.

Mild compared to my Facebook posts.

[seer]

Can't wait to see some wackadoodle guy-identifying-as-pregnant-woman "protest" by jamming a coat-hanger up his hoo-hah.

Don't worry Oregon is on the case! It is a start at least!

Striving for ‘Menstrual Equity,’ Oregon Puts Tampons in Men’s Bathrooms at Public Schools, Colleges

https://www.dailysignal.com/2022/05/...ools-colleges/

[rogue06]

Not much. Turns out that free contraceptives and waning public support have been reducing the number of abortions for decades. The Democrats will lose Congress and probably collapse by January. Regardless, they will likely drop the issue in July unless it actually gains traction beyond their leftist base.

I expect the issue, like slavery before it, will chug on with a minority until it fades from polite discussion. Eventually it will be one of the things our descendants call us barbaric for.

I doubt they will drop it even if it doesn't gain traction outside their base since it will remain a powerful fund raising cause and keep the base motivated.

Interestingly, it is possible that this could hurt some Democrats in purple districts who do not want to talk about Social Issues since that also brings up crime and education -- two topics they would like to avoid saying anything on accept to say some slogans.

[rogue06]

Weird and outrageous comments aren't the sole preserve of the left it seems.

Republican candidate Regan got a drubbing in elections. It seems that with his comment "when rape is inevitable, the woman should lay back and enjoy it" managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of certain victory.

That quip has gotten more than one moron in trouble over the years. The famous University of Indiana basketball coach, Bobby Knight, once said it during a major TV interview. In 1990 the Republican candidate for governor in Texas had been leading by 20 points before he thought it would be a good idea to say it. He ended up losing.

Perhaps the most notorious instance was back in the 70s when a well-known weatherman, after a report about an attempted rape of an 8 year old, said:

"With rape so predominant in the news lately, it is well to remember the words of Confucius: 'If rape is inevitable, lie back and enjoy it'."

picardfacepalmthumb.jpg

It is amazing how anyone thinks that is a smart or clever thing to say.

Oh, and after that weatherman was immediately suspended, how did the anchor introduce the temporary replacement? He told the viewers to "Lie back, relax and enjoy the weather" with the new guy.

Yeah, he really did that.

[Sparko]

If states outlaw abortion it will affect abortion providers not "end users" - in other words it won't be illegal for the citizen of a state to have an abortion, just to have one in that particular state. I am not sure about the legality of mail ordering abortion drugs, but I assume that would not be illegal to take them, but it might be illegal to get them (you need a prescription for them right?)

What I find shocking right now is that BIden and other liberals are calling conservatives "extremists" and "radical right" for wanting to stop abortion. It's like the world has turned upside down. We are radicals for wanting to save the lives of unborn children. Who would have believed such a thing 20 or 30 years ago? Protecting life is now extremism.

Isaiah 5:20 - Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!

[rogue06]

If states outlaw abortion it will affect abortion providers not "end users" - in other words it won't be illegal for the citizen of a state to have an abortion, just to have one in that particular state. I am not sure about the legality of mail ordering abortion drugs, but I assume that would not be illegal to take them, but it might be illegal to get them (you need a prescription for them right?)

What I find shocking right now is that BIden and other liberals are calling conservatives "extremists" and "radical right" for wanting to stop abortion. It's like the world has turned upside down. We are radicals for wanting to save the lives of unborn children. Who would have believed such a thing 20 or 30 years ago? Protecting life is now extremism.

Isaiah 5:20 - Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!

Not too long ago the left was telling us how much they wanted abortion to be "safe, legal and rare."

Now, it is clear that the only part of that they care about is the legal part with some even getting upset when the number of abortion decreases.