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Potential opposition to Putin at home

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  • Potential opposition to Putin at home

    An interesting article in The Conversation by Ben Noble Associate Professor of Russian Politics at University College London [UCL] on the dissent in Russia. He points out that none of this, as yet, is going to result in a "palace coup" as Putin is surrounded by those who think [ostensibly at least] as he does. However, that such views are being expressed is indicative that the man who has become synonymous with what is known as "information war" appears to have lost that war. Information cannot be banned in today's world despite his attempts to do so. Even North Korea has not completely mastered the suppression of all information about itself.

    https://theconversation.com/ukraine-...r-alarm-178449

    Prof. Noble points to three broad categories of dissent:

    There are three broad categories of Russians who have voiced their opposition to the war, albeit in different ways. It helps to visualise these as three concentric circles, starting from the largest and closing in.

    Anti-war street protests attended by regular citizens have swept the country. Within the first week of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, at least 7,669 people were detained by police at anti-war protests across Russia according to OVD-Info, a Russian human rights organisation. Those detained include people all the way from primary school children to an elderly pensioner in St Petersburg.ailed opposition figure Alexei Navalny has called for daily anti-war protests in and outside Russia, referring to Putin as an “insane tsar”.

    Cultural elite and the intelligentsia

    Portions of the intellectual and cultural elite have also voiced their opposition to war – from TV celebrities to sportspeople and scientists. Beyond individual statements, a flurry of open letters have been signed, including by 44 of the country’s top chess players and by academics.

    There are already cases, though, of signatories facing negative consequences, including losing their jobs. As well as the detentions at protests, this serves as a clear reminder of the bravery of those publicly opposing the war.

    Economic and political elite

    What about important economic actors? With the enormous fortunes that stand to be lost because of the west’s unprecedented sanctions on Russia, it is plausible that they might speak out.

    Some already have. A few of Russia’s wealthiest people – for example, the oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska – have called for peace. One of the country’s largest oil companies, Lukoil, has also called for an end to the war in Ukraine.


    However, he advises caution:

    But there is clear caution. Calling for peace is not the same as directly criticising Putin, as Fridman has acknowledged.

    Some public dissent has also been shown already by minor political officials: for instance, a Russian adviser to the World Bank and a Russian delegate at a UN climate conference.


    Noble goes on to attempt to measure the true depth and breadth of opposition noting:

    It’s very difficult to measure the true extent of opposition to the war – and to Putin personally – across these three groups, as well as to work out how this might change over time.

    The Russian president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has said that the “level of support for the president, for his decisions, and his actions is very, very high”. According to the Kremlin-friendly VTsIOM polling agency, 68% of Russians support Russia’s activities in Ukraine, with another Kremlin-aligned agency, FOM, reporting that 71% of Russians trust in Putin following the start of Russia’s military operation, up from 60% just before the invasion.


    And ends his article somewhat grimly

    How can this be? Russian state media continues to portray a very different reality to the coverage in western media. Rather than a full-scale assault, the narrative is of a “special operation” to protect ethnic Russians in the so-called “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk from “genocide” being carried out by Ukraine’s “neo-Nazi” government.

    Words like “invasion” and “war” are banned in Russian media. Independent outlets have been blocked or shut down. And Russians face the prospect of harsh punishment for challenging the state’s line on the conflict.

    A bleak outlook

    The degree of opposition going forward depends on a number of factors, including the Russian military’s ability to subdue Ukrainian forces. The scale of economic hardship in Russia will also influence public opinion. But a lot will also depend on the Russian state’s capacity and willingness to repress dissent at home and continue to control the narrative. We’ll see economic problems and the deaths of Russian soldiers continue to be blamed by the Kremlin on the west.

    Putin has staked his survival on this. And we’ve seen what he is capable of doing to critical voices: the incarceration of Navalny and the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 being just two examples. Given the steps that have already been taken to respond to domestic opposition, it is likely that – in the short term, at least – we will see a doubling down of repression, including to prevent any cascade of dissent that might shake the very foundations of the regime.


    It appears that [at least judging by the present situation] we may all be in for the "long haul" over this with the inevitable impact on our own lives as the cost of living [at least in Europe] will go up.


    "It ain't necessarily so
    The things that you're liable
    To read in the Bible
    It ain't necessarily so
    ."

    Sportin' Life
    Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

  • #2
    The very fact that Putin is contemplating establishing martial law inside Russia is a sign that there is significant internal dissent.

    Hopefully our government is doing what they can to support and stir up trouble in Russia. Time for a bit of payback. Some tit for tat.

    Unfortunately, I doubt that the Russians have the equivalent of the Democrats to do the dirty work for us.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

    Comment


    • #3
      There is a fascinating read in the Daily Mail which is based upon a report supposedly leaked by a FSB (the old KGB) analyst, who says basically that the war has been a disaster for Russia. I was going to post a couple of excerpts from the report, but there is so much fascinating info there it was impossible to decide which sections to pick. I recommend people read the entire article:

      Putin's Ukrainian war will be a 'total failure' comparable to the collapse of Nazi Germany, report 'by FSB analyst' claims - adding that Russia has 'no options for victory, only defeat'

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...st-claims.html
      "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
      "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
        There is a fascinating read in the Daily Mail which is based upon a report supposedly leaked by a FSB (the old KGB) analyst, who says basically that the war has been a disaster for Russia. I was going to post a couple of excerpts from the report, but there is so much fascinating info there it was impossible to decide which sections to pick. I recommend people read the entire article:

        Putin's Ukrainian war will be a 'total failure' comparable to the collapse of Nazi Germany, report 'by FSB analyst' claims - adding that Russia has 'no options for victory, only defeat'

        https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...st-claims.html
        A liberal recommending the Daily Mail? Prepare to be canceled

        I'm always still in trouble again

        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
          There is a fascinating read in the Daily Mail which is based upon a report supposedly leaked by a FSB (the old KGB) analyst, who says basically that the war has been a disaster for Russia. I was going to post a couple of excerpts from the report, but there is so much fascinating info there it was impossible to decide which sections to pick. I recommend people read the entire article:

          Putin's Ukrainian war will be a 'total failure' comparable to the collapse of Nazi Germany, report 'by FSB analyst' claims - adding that Russia has 'no options for victory, only defeat'

          https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...st-claims.html
          The danger lies in him feeling cornered.

          He seems to consider all his weapons are potentially available to be used should they be necessary for him and we also have to ensure the situation does not develop where any actions on our part are regarded by his regime as a war against Russia.

          He has already likened sanctions to a declaration of war. However, the "carrot" of potentially lifting some sanctions if he withdraws might be [in the future] a way forward. Such a situation, if negotiations were reached, could/would then offer him the opportunity to present that situation as an honourable way out. However, I also suspect that his demands will be too high for Ukraine [and its supporters in the west] to accept.

          As a further comment on present news the work of Osint researchers is interesting.
          "It ain't necessarily so
          The things that you're liable
          To read in the Bible
          It ain't necessarily so
          ."

          Sportin' Life
          Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            A liberal recommending the Daily Mail? Prepare to be canceled
            The irony is that I am one of the most conservative posters in this forum. It is because of my criticism of Trump that the people in this and other forums accuse me of being a commie pinko, who is secretly working with the Jews at the CIA to legalize marriage between cats and dogs. Or something like that, the criticisms against me are sometimes hard to translate into rational thought.

            I have often compared myself to George Conway, the conservative lawyer who has been condemned by most Republicans because of his opposition to Trump. I have a great deal of respect for Conway, other than for his appalling taste in women.

            Let me state for the record that I think that what cats and dogs do in the privacy of their bedrooms is no ones business but their own...
            "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
            "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post

              The irony is that I am one of the most conservative posters in this forum. It is because of my criticism of Trump that the people in this and other forums accuse me of being a commie pinko, who is secretly working with the Jews at the CIA to legalize marriage between cats and dogs. Or something like that, the criticisms against me are sometimes hard to translate into rational thought.

              I have often compared myself to George Conway, the conservative lawyer who has been condemned by most Republicans because of his opposition to Trump. I have a great deal of respect for Conway, other than for his appalling taste in women.

              Let me state for the record that I think that what cats and dogs do in the privacy of their bedrooms is no ones business but their own...
              Let me know when you post something that can be construed as conservative.

              I'm always still in trouble again

              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post

                The danger lies in him feeling cornered.

                He seems to consider all his weapons are potentially available to be used should they be necessary for him and we also have to ensure the situation does not develop where any actions on our part are regarded by his regime as a war against Russia.

                He has already likened sanctions to a declaration of war. However, the "carrot" of potentially lifting some sanctions if he withdraws might be [in the future] a way forward. Such a situation, if negotiations were reached, could/would then offer him the opportunity to present that situation as an honourable way out. However, I also suspect that his demands will be too high for Ukraine [and its supporters in the west] to accept.

                As a further comment on present news the work of Osint researchers is interesting.
                I agree. If he feels cornered, he may feel he has nothing to lose. He is already in his 70s and knows he doesn't have long to live regardless. And he only cares about himself, so he may decide to just go for all out nuclear war and take everyone with him.

                Also I am worried about the sanctions and the failing Russia economy. That was one of the reasons Hitler took power in Germany after WW1, wasn't it? A failing economy? He used that to blame the Jews and the rest of the world, and took power and built up one of the world's most powerful armies, all from a bankrupt economy. Putin could do something similar to gather his people. It could go either way, either the sanctions turn the people against Putin, or he uses the sanctions to turn his people against the rest of the world and gain more power for himself.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  Let me know when you post something that can be construed as conservative.
                  Let me know when I post something you think is non-conservative.
                  "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                  "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                    I agree. If he feels cornered, he may feel he has nothing to lose. He is already in his 70s and knows he doesn't have long to live regardless. And he only cares about himself, so he may decide to just go for all out nuclear war and take everyone with him.
                    Much as I share your fears I think we also to remember that there is a chain of command and we cannot assume that any such order would be carried out [one hopes it would not].

                    Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                    Also I am worried about the sanctions and the failing Russia economy. That was one of the reasons Hitler took power in Germany after WW1, wasn't it? A failing economy?
                    Not entirely. Although the world was going through a major economic depression because of the events of 1929.

                    Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                    He used that to blame the Jews and the rest of the world
                    One of the main lies promulgated not just by Hitler was the Dolchstoßlegende that had been around since 1918.

                    Hitler also used Versailles to vilify [and to some extent with due cause] French vindictiveness towards Germany and the demand for reparations.

                    Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                    was the , and took power and built up one of the world's most powerful armies, all from a bankrupt economy. Putin could do something similar to gather his people. It could go either way, either the sanctions turn the people against Putin, or he uses the sanctions to turn his people against the rest of the world and gain more power for himself.
                    I take your points but of course the world today is not as it was in 1933.

                    To use Edmond Dantès' line from The Count of Monte Cristo all we can do is "Wait and Hope"

                    "It ain't necessarily so
                    The things that you're liable
                    To read in the Bible
                    It ain't necessarily so
                    ."

                    Sportin' Life
                    Porgy & Bess, DuBose Heyward, George & Ira Gershwin

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                      I agree. If he feels cornered, he may feel he has nothing to lose. He is already in his 70s and knows he doesn't have long to live regardless. And he only cares about himself, so he may decide to just go for all out nuclear war and take everyone with him.
                      And now rumors of his having cancer are surfacing

                      I'm always still in trouble again

                      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post

                        Let me know when I post something you think is non-conservative.
                        I figured that you might be more familiar with your posting history than I am, but if you can't think of any examples...

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          I figured that you might be more familiar with your posting history than I am, but if you can't think of any examples...
                          I can't. If you can't either, then I think we are in agreement that I am a conservative and not a liberal.
                          "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                          "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Hypatia_Alexandria View Post
                            Much as I share your fears I think we also to remember that there is a chain of command and we cannot assume that any such order would be carried out [one hopes it would not].

                            Not entirely. Although the world was going through a major economic depression because of the events of 1929.

                            One of the main lies promulgated not just by Hitler was the Dolchstoßlegende that had been around since 1918.

                            Hitler also used Versailles to vilify [and to some extent with due cause] French vindictiveness towards Germany and the demand for reparations.
                            Looks like someone is engaging in gross oversimplification of complex issues.

                            The Jews were but one of many groups accused of being traitors. There were a number of others such as the "November­verbrecher."


                            I'm always still in trouble again

                            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                              I can't. If you can't either, then I think we are in agreement that I am a conservative and not a liberal.
                              One does not logically follow the other.

                              I'm always still in trouble again

                              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                              Comment

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