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What if Putin lets the nuclear genie out of the bottle?

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  • What if Putin lets the nuclear genie out of the bottle?

    I'm not convinced he actually will. However, I do not want to discuss whether he will or will not in this thread.

    Instead. I want to discuss what happens if he does.

    Let's say Putin decides to use a tactical Nuke. The cold-war is over, and political calculations have changed. Make no mistake, it's use will shock the entire world, and be met with near unanimous condemnation. But the debate will be: How does the world respond? The nuclear genie has been kept in its bottle under the threat of MAD. Essentially the argument that if you use this weapon, it will be used against you, and both sides will be wiped out in nuclear war.

    What happens? On one hand, "MAD" would dictate that we launch nukes against something in Russia as reprisal to their use of Nukes. This of course raises the risk of nuclear war, and all the horrible repercussions that come with it. On the other hand, NATO and the US could take a lesser reprisal. But this carries the large risk of "normalizing" the use of nuclear weapons. At the bare minimum, it means that using a nuclear weapon no longer means you face being wiped out, which could lead to them being used more frequently, which itself could be a longer/slower road to the same place.

    What are your thoughts?

  • #2
    Originally posted by CivilDiscourse View Post

    What are your thoughts?
    I'm glad that I'm getting old and have a chance of not being here when the mushrooms blossom.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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    • #3
      I'm not necessarily a fan of incrementalism and proportionality. I favor a Gen. 4 Lamech sort of response.
      Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

      Beige Federalist.

      Nationalist Christian.

      "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

      Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

      Proud member of the this space left blank community.

      Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

      Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

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      Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

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      • #4
        Originally posted by CivilDiscourse View Post
        I'm not convinced he actually will. However, I do not want to discuss whether he will or will not in this thread.

        Instead. I want to discuss what happens if he does.I

        Let's say Putin decides to use a tactical Nuke. The cold-war is over, and political calculations have changed. Make no mistake, it's use will shock the entire world, and be met with near unanimous condemnation. But the debate will be: How does the world respond? The nuclear genie has been kept in its bottle under the threat of MAD. Essentially the argument that if you use this weapon, it will be used against you, and both sides will be wiped out in nuclear war.

        What happens? On one hand, "MAD" would dictate that we launch nukes against something in Russia as reprisal to their use of Nukes. This of course raises the risk of nuclear war, and all the horrible repercussions that come with it. On the other hand, NATO and the US could take a lesser reprisal. But this carries the large risk of "normalizing" the use of nuclear weapons. At the bare minimum, it means that using a nuclear weapon no longer means you face being wiped out, which could lead to them being used more frequently, which itself could be a longer/slower road to the same place.

        What are your thoughts?
        I am wondering how many other genies there are, what they are, and who has them.
        1/ Nuclear weapons might just be old hat. The number of missiles with highly specific targetting ability that are available, even with conventional warheads, would be more than enough wipe out every military installation in any aggressor nation more than twice over.
        2/ How far did the star wars programme progress, and is any of it still functional?
        3/ Are all satellites secure, or have some been compromised, whether hacked or by other means?
        1Cor 15:34 Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
        .
        ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛
        Scripture before Tradition:
        but that won't prevent others from
        taking it upon themselves to deprive you
        of the right to call yourself Christian.

        ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛

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        • #5
          I doubt it would be like the movies where each country just unleashes all its nukes all at once at each other. But it's hard to imagine if nukes were used, they would be used sparingly. It would probably be a tit for tat chain reaction that would just keep escalating with each exchange.

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          • #6
            From what I'm reading, it sounds like Putin was considering using short-range tactical nukes in Ukraine. That wouldn't necessarily evolve into "MAD" because the west likely wouldn't use such indiscriminate weapons (I'm not sure we even have any).

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Ronson View Post
              From what I'm reading, it sounds like Putin was considering using short-range tactical nukes in Ukraine. That wouldn't necessarily evolve into "MAD" because the west likely wouldn't use such indiscriminate weapons (I'm not sure we even have any).
              I'm not sure if we still have them but we used to have nuke rounds for artillery.

              I'm always still in trouble again

              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                From what I'm reading, it sounds like Putin was considering using short-range tactical nukes in Ukraine. That wouldn't necessarily evolve into "MAD" because the west likely wouldn't use such indiscriminate weapons (I'm not sure we even have any).
                That leads to option 2. If he uses a nuke and "gets away with it", it opens the door for others to do so without fear of great reprisal.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  I'm not sure if we still have them but we used to have nuke rounds for artillery.
                  Apparently, short-range strategic nuclear weapons were not included in either SALT or START agreements. But I seem to remember there was an agreement at some point not to produce them. (?)

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by CivilDiscourse View Post

                    That leads to option 2. If he uses a nuke and "gets away with it", it opens the door for others to do so without fear of great reprisal.
                    I don't know if they would "get away with it" because they are no doubt banned by the UN because they're meant to kill and destroy more than military targets. Exactly how the world would respond is questionable. The West is already pursuing just about all it can, so it would be up to remaining countries - especially China - if they would get on board. Russia wouldn't be able to survive without China, the way things are.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ronson View Post

                      I don't know if they would "get away with it" because they are no doubt banned by the UN because they're meant to kill and destroy more than military targets. Exactly how the world would respond is questionable. The West is already pursuing just about all it can, so it would be up to remaining countries - especially China - if they would get on board. Russia wouldn't be able to survive without China, the way things are.
                      What could you do to Russia that hasn't already been done (i.e nuclear sanctions), save a response in kind?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                        Apparently, short-range strategic nuclear weapons were not included in either SALT or START agreements. But I seem to remember there was an agreement at some point not to produce them. (?)
                        Maybe not produce any more because I'm pretty sure we had them before that. And they're considered limited yield tactical nukes, not strategic.



                        1024px-Nuclear_artillery_test_Grable_Event_-_Part_of_Operation_Upshot-Knothole.jpg
                        From the early 50s, a test of a nuclear artillery round fired from a 280mm

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I don't think an aggressive conventional response that destroys an enemy's ability to conduct war, which would be the most likely outcome of Putin uncorking the nuclear bottle, could be considered "getting away with it". If Putin does launch nukes in some fashion, it would not be hard to get the free world to join together in response, and Russia would be destroyed the old fashioned way.
                          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                          Than a fool in the eyes of God


                          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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                          • #14
                            But! It would ruin the environment!



                            Securely anchored to the Rock amid every storm of trial, testing or tribulation.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                              I don't think an aggressive conventional response that destroys an enemy's ability to conduct war, which would be the most likely outcome of Putin uncorking the nuclear bottle, could be considered "getting away with it". If Putin does launch nukes in some fashion, it would not be hard to get the free world to join together in response, and Russia would be destroyed the old fashioned way.
                              I don't think it's possible to avoid an all out nuclear war once that genie is let out. I can't see any scenario where one country uses a nuke and there is no similar response.

                              Comment

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