I'm not convinced he actually will. However, I do not want to discuss whether he will or will not in this thread.
Instead. I want to discuss what happens if he does.
Let's say Putin decides to use a tactical Nuke. The cold-war is over, and political calculations have changed. Make no mistake, it's use will shock the entire world, and be met with near unanimous condemnation. But the debate will be: How does the world respond? The nuclear genie has been kept in its bottle under the threat of MAD. Essentially the argument that if you use this weapon, it will be used against you, and both sides will be wiped out in nuclear war.
What happens? On one hand, "MAD" would dictate that we launch nukes against something in Russia as reprisal to their use of Nukes. This of course raises the risk of nuclear war, and all the horrible repercussions that come with it. On the other hand, NATO and the US could take a lesser reprisal. But this carries the large risk of "normalizing" the use of nuclear weapons. At the bare minimum, it means that using a nuclear weapon no longer means you face being wiped out, which could lead to them being used more frequently, which itself could be a longer/slower road to the same place.
What are your thoughts?
Instead. I want to discuss what happens if he does.
Let's say Putin decides to use a tactical Nuke. The cold-war is over, and political calculations have changed. Make no mistake, it's use will shock the entire world, and be met with near unanimous condemnation. But the debate will be: How does the world respond? The nuclear genie has been kept in its bottle under the threat of MAD. Essentially the argument that if you use this weapon, it will be used against you, and both sides will be wiped out in nuclear war.
What happens? On one hand, "MAD" would dictate that we launch nukes against something in Russia as reprisal to their use of Nukes. This of course raises the risk of nuclear war, and all the horrible repercussions that come with it. On the other hand, NATO and the US could take a lesser reprisal. But this carries the large risk of "normalizing" the use of nuclear weapons. At the bare minimum, it means that using a nuclear weapon no longer means you face being wiped out, which could lead to them being used more frequently, which itself could be a longer/slower road to the same place.
What are your thoughts?
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