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US approaching 1 million COVID fatalities, vindicating original estimates

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  • US approaching 1 million COVID fatalities, vindicating original estimates

    Based on the data here, the US will suffer its millionth COVID fatality next month.

    I recall that at the start of the pandemic, Neil Ferguson predicted that if no steps were taken to stop COVID-19 spreading, there would be about 2.2 million casualties. With the current casualty figures despite all the steps that have been taken and the widespread vaccination program, his prediction - which was widely rejected at the time - now looks to me to be an underestimate.

    The UK is doing better, but not much better. It's tempting, but unsupportable, to acquit this on Boris Johnson having a much earlier and much severer COVID experience than Donald Trump. That doesn't work because for a long time the UK had a higher COVID death rate than the US. A more likely reason is that Brits trust government/science more than Americans do, and are getting vaccinated and masking/isolating more.* But either way, Neil Ferguson's estimate for the UK also appears in hindsight to have been accurate or low.

    *Apart from those partying at 10 Downing St, anyway.





    (P.S. I would prefer no posts from MM in this thread)
    Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

    MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
    MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

    seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

  • #2
    IIRC, the million death estimates I heard were for the first year.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Roy View Post
      Based on the data here, the US will suffer its millionth COVID fatality next month.

      I recall that at the start of the pandemic, Neil Ferguson predicted that if no steps were taken to stop COVID-19 spreading, there would be about 2.2 million casualties. With the current casualty figures despite all the steps that have been taken and the widespread vaccination program, his prediction - which was widely rejected at the time - now looks to me to be an underestimate.

      The UK is doing better, but not much better. It's tempting, but unsupportable, to acquit this on Boris Johnson having a much earlier and much severer COVID experience than Donald Trump. That doesn't work because for a long time the UK had a higher COVID death rate than the US. A more likely reason is that Brits trust government/science more than Americans do, and are getting vaccinated and masking/isolating more.* But either way, Neil Ferguson's estimate for the UK also appears in hindsight to have been accurate or low.

      *Apart from those partying at 10 Downing St, anyway.





      (P.S. I would prefer no posts from MM in this thread)
      I'm unsure how that is vindication of anything given your boy Ferguson predicted 2.2 million deaths by around August 2020 (your own source gives a chart of his predictions, which you apparentlydidnt notice). Last I checked this is February 2022, and it's not even halfway to that number.

      Talk about desperate grasping at straws to try to vindicate his horrendously off predictions.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
        IIRC, the million death estimates I heard were for the first year.
        By August 2020, in fact (theres a graph in Roys own link). Ferguson sure ain't remotely vindicated. Roy just feels like embarrassing himself it appears.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post

          I'm unsure how that is vindication of anything given your boy Ferguson predicted 2.2 million deaths by around August 2020 (your own source gives a chart of his predictions, which you apparentlydidnt notice). Last I checked this is February 2022, and it's not even halfway to that number.

          Talk about desperate grasping at straws to try to vindicate his horrendously off predictions.
          But that's the game they play ---- If I predict a HORRIFIC number, and only a terrible number results, I can boast about how effective my efforts were in preventing the HORRIFIC number.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post

            By August 2020, in fact (theres a graph in Roys own link). Ferguson sure ain't remotely vindicated. Roy just feels like embarrassing himself it appears.
            [*looks up at calendar ... yup, 2022*]

            Not only not a bull's-eye, it doesn't look like it even hit the target.

            I'm always still in trouble again

            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              [*looks up at calendar ... yup, 2022*]

              Not only not a bull's-eye, it doesn't look like it even hit the target.
              I'd no longer have a job and likely be responsible for some deaths if I were that far off on my estimates in my line of work. Like, "the dam failed and drowned the cities beneath it" sort of screw-up.

              Must be nice.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post

                I'd no longer have a job and likely be responsible for some deaths if I were that far off on my estimates in my line of work. Like, "the dam failed and drowned the cities beneath it" sort of screw-up.

                Must be nice.
                Kinda like "our exit from Afghanistan was a tremendous success because we managed to airlift X number of people"....

                (pay no attention to the thousands left behind, the BILLIONS of dollars of abandoned equipment now in enemy hands, the slaughter of locals by the Taliban, the missionaries and aid workers who have to rely on locals to sneak them into Pakistan....."

                (and, yeah, I wasn't for that war in the first place)
                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  IIRC, the million death estimates I heard were for the first year.
                  It's not hard to believe that the deaths would have come a lot faster if no steps were taken.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                    IIRC, the million death estimates I heard were for the first year.
                    There has also been zero attempt by our government agencies (primarily the CDC) to separate "died from the China flu", "died with the China flu", and "died after experiencing China flu like symptoms, so we're calling it the China flu even though we never bothered to confirm it". And then there's the proven unreliability of the PCR tests which have been rigged to run so many cycles that they are almost guaranteed to find the China flu even when it doesn't actually exist.

                    All of which is to say that I don't trust any "official" death totals that we're being fed by the fear mongers who have an agenda that is entirely unrelated to the health of US citizens.
                    Last edited by Mountain Man; 02-07-2022, 11:24 AM.
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      ?

                      with no action, the United States might face 2.2 million deaths; it was shared with the White House and new guidance on social distancing quickly followed (see ‘Simulation shock’).

                      A lower estimate of 2.18 million was also posited.

                      So, action was taken, the death toll over two years is less than half of what the estimates were for one unregulated year, ergo - the estimates were wrong.

                      Nope.
                      1Cor 15:34 Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
                      .
                      ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛
                      Scripture before Tradition:
                      but that won't prevent others from
                      taking it upon themselves to deprive you
                      of the right to call yourself Christian.

                      ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Stoic View Post

                        It's not hard to believe that the deaths would have come a lot faster if no steps were taken.
                        Good thing Trump rushed into action, in spite of the liberals claiming they'd never take the vaccination that came from his efforts.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by tabibito View Post
                          ?

                          with no action, the United States might face 2.2 million deaths; it was shared with the White House and new guidance on social distancing quickly followed (see ‘Simulation shock’).

                          A lower estimate of 2.18 million was also posited.

                          So, action was taken, the death toll over two years is less than half of what the estimates were for one unregulated year, ergo - the estimates were wrong.

                          Nope.
                          That sounds like the "magic rock" argument.

                          "This magic rock keeps bears out of my living room. How do I know it works? Because I don't see any bears in my living room."

                          Or in this case:

                          "Our mitigation efforts saved lives. How do we know? Because we predicted 2 millions deaths, but only 1 million people died."

                          Where's the control group?
                          Last edited by Mountain Man; 02-07-2022, 11:32 AM.
                          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                          Than a fool in the eyes of God


                          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                            There has also been zero attempt by our government agencies (primarily the CDC) to separate "died from the China flu", "died with the China flu", and "died after experiencing China flu like symptoms, so we're calling it the China flu even though we never bothered to confirm it". And then there's the proven unreliability of the PCR tests which have been rigged to run so many cycles that they are almost guaranteed to find the China flu even when it doesn't actually exist.

                            All of which is to say that I don't trust any "official" death totals that we're being fed by the fear mongers who have an agenda that is entirely unrelated to the health of US citizens.
                            And how many of these deaths were a direct result from COVID, and how many had major other conditions, or people who simply died (got run over by a cement truck) with COVID?
                            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                              That sounds like the "magic rock" argument.

                              "This magic rock keeps bears out of my living room. How do I know it works? Because I don't see any bears in my living room."

                              Or in this case:

                              "Our mitigation efforts saved lives. How do we know? Because we predicted 2 millions deaths, but only 1 million people died."

                              Where's the control group?
                              Arguments that "Nineveh was not destroyed, which proves that Jonah was nothing more than a chicken little" would be no less specious.



                              I did not say that the estimates were accurate. What I did say is that steps were taken to mitigate, which means that arguments claiming that estimates were wrong is specious.
                              Nor can it be said that the discrepancy in death tolls proves nothing, because the parameters are different.

                              Some lives were indubitably saved by the precautions, even if the number is exaggerated.



                              1Cor 15:34 Come to your senses as you ought and stop sinning; for I say to your shame, there are some who know not God.
                              .
                              ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛
                              Scripture before Tradition:
                              but that won't prevent others from
                              taking it upon themselves to deprive you
                              of the right to call yourself Christian.

                              ⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛⊛

                              Comment

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