The 2 hard truths Democrats need to share with their voters

[CivilDiscourse]

Interesting article. I believe Truth #2 needs to be re-iterated over and over.

These days, everything has to be either a "nothing burger" or "over the top". It's either 0 or 11 on a scale of 1 to 10, and the election integrity/filibuster debate is just one example of this in action.

Source: https://theweek.com/talking-points/1009102/what-democrats-should-tell-their-base-about-their-defeats-in-congress

With Democrats confronting the imminent failure in Congress of their bills to expand social spending and voting rights, recriminations have already begun. As Politico reports, progressives are especially preoccupied with how to talk about their defeats with their presumably angry and demoralized constituents.

Not that I imagine it will happen, but I think the Democratic Party would benefit from setting aside spin for a change and telling its voters two hard but essential truths about American political reality.

The first truth is that, according to recent data from Gallup, only 25 percent of the country self-identifies as "liberal," with "moderate" and "conservative" pulling in more than a third each (37 percent for the former and 36 percent for the latter). That's more than in the past (thirty years ago, just 17 percent of the country described themselves as "liberal"), but it's nowhere near enough to ram through a progressive agenda in Congress.

This gets obscured by the fact that within the Democratic Party, the left has made enormous strides over the past few decades. Back in 1994, just 25 percent of Democrats considered themselves liberal. Today that number is 50 percent. Over that same timespan, self-identified moderates have fallen from 48 percent of the party to 37 percent, while conservatives have gone from 25 percent to 12 percent. It's understandable that the left would want to translate its growing numbers into political power, but with the other half of the party less inclined to support a progressive agenda, the obstacles are greater than a couple of recalcitrant senators.

If Democrats probably won't convey the first hard truth to their voters, they're even less likely to share the second truth, which is that their rhetoric on voting rights has been wildly exaggerated and even outrightly demagogic. Yes, Republican efforts to make it marginally more arduous to vote are morally vile. But they've been at it for many years, and there's no evidence that it has had a measurable effect on rates of voting.

So by all means, hit the GOP for making voting somewhat more difficult. But calling such efforts "the end of American democracy" or "Jim Crow 2.0" are risible and civically irresponsible — roughly equivalent to conservatives accusing Barack Obama of being a socialist during debate over passage of the Affordable Care Act. Such shrieking hyperbole might be good for fundraising and keeping activists maximally engaged on social media, but both do serious damage to our politics by transforming the parties into conduits for transparent and corrosive BS.

Then there's the fact that, as the Democrats are currently learning, there's little evidence the five-alarm rhetoric gets the job done. Hopefully next time they will adjust their expectations to fit American political reality.

© Copyright Original Source

[rogue06]

Was reading about this the other day

Source: U.S. Political Party Preferences Shifted Greatly During 2021

On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

lgcee9uipekjsow90933fa.png

These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. adults.

Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.

Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.

• The Democratic lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the fourth quarter of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-point advantage. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999 and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
• The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

Source

© Copyright Original Source

[*the analysis continues noting that the shift is linked with old Joe's plummeting approval rate and can even be seen among hard core party members*]

At the beginning of the year the left was large and in charge. Old Joe was riding high in the polls. The Democrats controlled both Houses (the Senate is 50/50 but with Harris as a tie-breaker it really is 51/50). And then the January 6 D.C. riot happened. This solidified Democrat power considerably as many Republicans were afraid to talk and most of those who did were censored by Social Media. The way was clear to try to portray this as being somehow worse by several orders of magnitude than what the country was forced to endure throughout the previous summer and made their "solution" -- seizing control of all elections and gutting virtually everything that helps to limit voter fraud a near certainty. It would effectively ensure that the Democrats maintained a permanent majority.

Then, as so often is the case, the left overplayed their hand.

There is an adage in Washington that when in power the Democrats act like they will always remain there, and I guess they figured their plan to maintain control permanently was unstoppable. So the left did what they tend to do. They overplayed their hand. While this is predictable behavior, this time it was like they went all in. The masks were dropped and we saw what they had in store for the country.

And now even liberal pundits are predicting a red tidal wave this year for the mid terms.

Essentially, when the left shows what they have to offer and how they will implement their plots, America soundly rejects it.

[Cow Poke]

Yeah!

[Sparko]

Obviously just more Trump propaganda!!!

[CivilDiscourse]

At the beginning of the year the left was large and in charge. Old Joe was riding high in the polls. The Democrats controlled both Houses (the Senate is 50/50 but with Harris as a tie-breaker it really is 51/50). And then the January 6 D.C. riot happened. This solidified Democrat power considerably as many Republicans were afraid to talk and most of those who did were censored by Social Media. The way was clear to try to portray this as being somehow worse by several orders of magnitude than what the country was forced to endure throughout the previous summer and made their "solution" -- seizing control of all elections and gutting virtually everything that helps to limit voter fraud a near certainty. It would effectively ensure that the Democrats maintained a permanent majority.

There's an Irony there as well. The democrats "majority" in the senate relies on the fact that the VP is from their party. So, their entire grip on power in the senate relies on the notion that they stick together and vote in lockstep, because it's virtually the only way Harris gets to vote. At the same time, they complain about republicans staying lockstep in opposition, keeping them from getting anything done. (At the same time, they can't even muster the 50 votes they would need if the filibuster wasn't in place.)

[Cow Poke]

Was reading about this the other day

Source: U.S. Political Party Preferences Shifted Greatly During 2021

On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

lgcee9uipekjsow90933fa.png

These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. adults.

Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.

Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.

• The Democratic lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the fourth quarter of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-point advantage. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999 and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
• The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

Source

© Copyright Original Source

[*the analysis continues noting that the shift is linked with old Joe's plummeting approval rate and can even be seen among hard core party members*]

At the beginning of the year the left was large and in charge. Old Joe was riding high in the polls. The Democrats controlled both Houses (the Senate is 50/50 but with Harris as a tie-breaker it really is 51/50). And then the January 6 D.C. riot happened. This solidified Democrat power considerably as many Republicans were afraid to talk and most of those who did were censored by Social Media. The way was clear to try to portray this as being somehow worse by several orders of magnitude than what the country was forced to endure throughout the previous summer and made their "solution" -- seizing control of all elections and gutting virtually everything that helps to limit voter fraud a near certainty. It would effectively ensure that the Democrats maintained a permanent majority.

Then, as so often is the case, the left overplayed their hand.

There is an adage in Washington that when in power the Democrats act like they will always remain there, and I guess they figured their plan to maintain control permanently was unstoppable. So the left did what they tend to do. They overplayed their hand. While this is predictable behavior, this time it was like they went all in. The masks were dropped and we saw what they had in store for the country.

And now even liberal pundits are predicting a red tidal wave this year for the mid terms.

Essentially, when the left shows what they have to offer and how they will implement their plots, America soundly rejects it.

I was curious about the longer term, and, because you such a smart brudder - didn't have to hunt very long, cause you includinated the source cite thingy....

more.png

I think that really makes recent trending more interesting.

[rogue06]

There's an Irony there as well. The democrats "majority" in the senate relies on the fact that the VP is from their party. So, their entire grip on power in the senate relies on the notion that they stick together and vote in lockstep, because it's virtually the only way Harris gets to vote. At the same time, they complain about republicans staying lockstep in opposition, keeping them from getting anything done. (At the same time, they can't even muster the 50 votes they would need if the filibuster wasn't in place.)

That gets to the oft repeated claim heard from liberal pundits that Joe Manchin is stopping what the majority wants blithely ignoring that the vote was 51 to 49 meaning that the majority did win.

airhead-economics.jpg

[Gondwanaland]

Interesting article. I believe Truth #2 needs to be re-iterated over and over.

These days, everything has to be either a "nothing burger" or "over the top". It's either 0 or 11 on a scale of 1 to 10, and the election integrity/filibuster debate is just one example of this in action.

Source: https://theweek.com/talking-points/1009102/what-democrats-should-tell-their-base-about-their-defeats-in-congress

With Democrats confronting the imminent failure in Congress of their bills to expand social spending and voting rights, recriminations have already begun. As Politico reports, progressives are especially preoccupied with how to talk about their defeats with their presumably angry and demoralized constituents.

Not that I imagine it will happen, but I think the Democratic Party would benefit from setting aside spin for a change and telling its voters two hard but essential truths about American political reality.

The first truth is that, according to recent data from Gallup, only 25 percent of the country self-identifies as "liberal," with "moderate" and "conservative" pulling in more than a third each (37 percent for the former and 36 percent for the latter). That's more than in the past (thirty years ago, just 17 percent of the country described themselves as "liberal"), but it's nowhere near enough to ram through a progressive agenda in Congress.

This gets obscured by the fact that within the Democratic Party, the left has made enormous strides over the past few decades. Back in 1994, just 25 percent of Democrats considered themselves liberal. Today that number is 50 percent. Over that same timespan, self-identified moderates have fallen from 48 percent of the party to 37 percent, while conservatives have gone from 25 percent to 12 percent. It's understandable that the left would want to translate its growing numbers into political power, but with the other half of the party less inclined to support a progressive agenda, the obstacles are greater than a couple of recalcitrant senators.

If Democrats probably won't convey the first hard truth to their voters, they're even less likely to share the second truth, which is that their rhetoric on voting rights has been wildly exaggerated and even outrightly demagogic. Yes, Republican efforts to make it marginally more arduous to vote are morally vile. But they've been at it for many years, and there's no evidence that it has had a measurable effect on rates of voting.

So by all means, hit the GOP for making voting somewhat more difficult. But calling such efforts "the end of American democracy" or "Jim Crow 2.0" are risible and civically irresponsible — roughly equivalent to conservatives accusing Barack Obama of being a socialist during debate over passage of the Affordable Care Act. Such shrieking hyperbole might be good for fundraising and keeping activists maximally engaged on social media, but both do serious damage to our politics by transforming the parties into conduits for transparent and corrosive BS.

Then there's the fact that, as the Democrats are currently learning, there's little evidence the five-alarm rhetoric gets the job done. Hopefully next time they will adjust their expectations to fit American political reality.

© Copyright Original Source

WRT voting laws, etc., not only should they share that about no measurable effect of the laws on voting, they should open the eyes of those pushing for it, on the fact that they are very much not in the majority, and in fact black, hispanic, and low income people overwhelmingly (the groups they claim will be disproportionately affected negatively by such laws) favor voter ID laws, for example, including for absentee voting:
https://www.honestelections.org/wp-c...-Memo-v4-1.pdf

Most striking is the sustained support for photo ID requirements among voters whom progressives insist are being deliberately disenfranchised by them. Some 77% of Black voters, 78% of Hispanic voters, and 81% of lower-income voters believe voters should have to show a photo ID to vote. Black voter support for photo ID laws is up 13 points since the March survey. Strong majorities
of Republicans (97%), Independents (82%), and Democrats (67%) favor photo ID laws, and support has risen in all three categories since March.

Americans support providing free photo IDs, not eliminating photo ID requirements when voting.

One common objection to photo ID laws is that some voters lack them. Only 12% of respondents support eliminating voter ID laws on that basis; 74% prefer preserving identification requirements while ensuring that voters have opportunities to get free IDs if they need them. Every state with a voter ID law offers voters the chance to get one for free, and the existence of a free ID makes 43% of voter ID opponents more likely to favor these laws. With better education and greater awareness of these programs, public support for ID laws may climb even higher.

Voters want identification requirements for mail-in ballots, too.
This year, states like Georgia and Florida have adopted new laws bringing photo ID
requirements to absentee voting. Liberal activists and politicians attacked lawmakers for taking this step, yet almost three-quarters (71%) of respondents back these policies.

Absentee ID laws are broadly supported by Black (70% vs. 21%), Hispanic (73% vs. 19%), and lower-income voters (72% vs. 19%), and overall support for absentee ID has grown since March (66%). Some 77% of respondents reported it would be easy to comply with an ID law that required a voter to hand write an ID number or a portion of their social security number—the mechanism chosen by states like Georgia, Florida, and Texas. Support for absentee ID laws has the strong potential to continue to grow.

[Ronson]

Interesting article. I believe Truth #2 needs to be re-iterated over and over.

These days, everything has to be either a "nothing burger" or "over the top". It's either 0 or 11 on a scale of 1 to 10, and the election integrity/filibuster debate is just one example of this in action.