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  • #31
    Originally posted by Roy View Post
    Only to correct Bill's error. Having to explain why you don't want some-one in a thread should not, IMO, allow them back in.


    That is true, although if you just want to ban a particular person from your thread that you obviously don't want to deal with, it needs to be done in the OP, not in the middle of the thread. As BTC said, he was on topic and you just seemed to get aggravated with him and kicked him out. He has been on topic and hasn't been disruptive.

    I will ask that MM just go ahead and respect your wishes and leave, but we are not going to officially enforce it. Unless he becomes disruptive.

    Comment


    • #32
      You can't ban someone from a thread without explaining why their comments are disruptive, but as soon as you discuss their comments you can no longer ban them. Catch-22.

      Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

      mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

      Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
      Mountain Man on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

      Sparko: Even the deists like Jefferson believed in the Christian God, ...

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Roy View Post
        You can't ban someone from a thread without explaining why their comments are disruptive, but as soon as you discuss their comments you can no longer ban them. Catch-22.
        Maybe you could explain it when banning them from the thread? But no, your discussing why you banned him from the thread was not what made it so he wasn't banned. That was already decided by BTC before that. Gond was wrong about that.

        If you answer or start talking about someone AFTER they are banned, then they can come back and answer. But MM was never banned.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Roy View Post
          Only to correct Bill's error.

          I was not in error. That you and MM disagree on certain specifics here, both of which seem to have supporting evidence, is the bread and butter of a debate forum. Evidence is presented and debated for validity and rigor. You don't get to ban someone from your thread in those cases.


          That's what
          - She

          Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
          - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

          I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
          Stephen R. Donaldson

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Roy View Post
            The top plot shows the number of covid-19 cases identified in the US. The bottom plot shows the number of deaths reported two weeks later.
            They correlate very closely.*

            covid_correlation.png
            I sincerely hope that the omicron variant, which seems to be the cause of the massive spike in new cases, is nowhere near as lethal as the preceding variants.



            *apart from the far left end, when covid identification was still in its infancy.
            as best I can tell omicron is about 1/3 to 1/4 as fatal as previous iterations. But it's rate of spread makes it nearly impossible to control. That 1/4 is mostly the unvaccinated population. so if we are 65% vaccinated, that is .5% of some 117 million people, which is around another 600,000 dead. In 2 to 3 months. That's a lot of people yet to die. Let's hope it is not actually that bad. Maybe it won't reach all those people, maybe the new theraputics will drive mortality down even more, maybe we can get the omicron specific vaccine out in time.
            My 'faith' designation is 'Christian'. But I do not want the label "Christian" leading to mockery of faith in Christ. Consequently, I apologize if words of mine written in this post or others reflect poorly on the what Faith in Christ means, or what Faith in Christ can in fact do in terms of bringing Grace, Mercy, and Love into the world.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

              as best I can tell omicron is about 1/3 to 1/4 as fatal as previous iterations. But it's rate of spread makes it nearly impossible to control. That 1/4 is mostly the unvaccinated population. so if we are 65% vaccinated, that is .5% of some 117 million people, which is around another 600,000 dead. In 2 to 3 months. That's a lot of people yet to die. Let's hope it is not actually that bad. Maybe it won't reach all those people, maybe the new theraputics will drive mortality down even more, maybe we can get the omicron specific vaccine out in time.
              I think your numbers are too high - that 0.5% should be closer to 0.25%.

              Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

              mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

              Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
              Mountain Man on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

              Sparko: Even the deists like Jefferson believed in the Christian God, ...

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Roy View Post
                I think your numbers are too high - that 0.5% should be closer to 0.25%.
                perhaps so - I was just eyeballing the curves. But if you are correct, that is still 300,000 still to die in the next 2 to 3 months from the omicron surge - the majority of whom - if they were just vaccinated - would not die.
                My 'faith' designation is 'Christian'. But I do not want the label "Christian" leading to mockery of faith in Christ. Consequently, I apologize if words of mine written in this post or others reflect poorly on the what Faith in Christ means, or what Faith in Christ can in fact do in terms of bringing Grace, Mercy, and Love into the world.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                  perhaps so - I was just eyeballing the curves. But if you are correct, that is still 300,000 still to die in the next 2 to 3 months from the omicron surge - the majority of whom - if they were just vaccinated - would not die.
                  That's probably true. Most of the studies that show omicron is much less severe are based on vaccinated populations.

                  Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                  mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

                  Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                  Mountain Man on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                  Sparko: Even the deists like Jefferson believed in the Christian God, ...

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Roy View Post
                    That's probably true. Most of the studies that show omicron is much less severe are based on vaccinated populations.
                    IIRC, only somewhere around 10% of the public in Africa are vaxxed but the omicron variant resulted in very few fatalities there.

                    I'm always still in trouble again

                    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      IIRC, only somewhere around 10% of the public in Africa are vaxxed but the omicron variant resulted in very few fatalities there.
                      Fatalities are rising in the US quite steeply with the surge of omicron, though the percent fatality is lower than with previous outbreaks. That would tend to imply something is wrong with the Africa data or your assessment of it.
                      My 'faith' designation is 'Christian'. But I do not want the label "Christian" leading to mockery of faith in Christ. Consequently, I apologize if words of mine written in this post or others reflect poorly on the what Faith in Christ means, or what Faith in Christ can in fact do in terms of bringing Grace, Mercy, and Love into the world.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

                        Fatalities are rising in the US quite steeply with the surge of omicron, though the percent fatality is lower than with previous outbreaks. That would tend to imply something is wrong with the Africa data or your assessment of it.
                        Another possibility is that we tend to put Covid on a death certificate even when someone is killed in a car wreck.

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          Another possibility is that we tend to put Covid on a death certificate even when someone is killed in a car wreck.
                          That response is related to the extreme paranoia targeting the CDC and other medical professionals.

                          Accusations of the widespread falsification or purposed inaccuracy in recording covid deaths are falsehoods based on anecdotal misperceptions or one-offs that are nothing more than statistical noise. This can be verified simply by looking at the excess deaths over the period of the pandemic which almost universally point to the potential for undercounts, not overcounts.
                          My 'faith' designation is 'Christian'. But I do not want the label "Christian" leading to mockery of faith in Christ. Consequently, I apologize if words of mine written in this post or others reflect poorly on the what Faith in Christ means, or what Faith in Christ can in fact do in terms of bringing Grace, Mercy, and Love into the world.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            Another possibility is that we tend to put Covid on a death certificate even when someone is killed in a car wreck.
                            And have politically banned ivermectin and HCQ from being used, whilst both are regularly used in Africa.......
                            "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
                            - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                              Another possibility is that we tend to put Covid on a death certificate even when someone is killed in a car wreck.
                              Feel free to show an example of that happening.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

                                That response is related to the extreme paranoia targeting the CDC and other medical professionals.

                                Accusations of the widespread falsification or purposed inaccuracy in recording covid deaths are falsehoods based on anecdotal misperceptions or one-offs that are nothing more than statistical noise. This can be verified simply by looking at the excess deaths over the period of the pandemic which almost universally point to the potential for undercounts, not overcounts.
                                When you monetarily incentivize reporting cases of the Chicom coronavirus, you will inevitably end up with a higher than accurate count. That's just unavoidable human nature.

                                I'm always still in trouble again

                                "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                                "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                                "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                                Comment

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