US life expectancy has been trending down since 2014, primarily due to obesity, drug addiction, and suicide. It increased slightly in 2018 and 2019, then plummeted by 1.5 years in 2020 because of COVID.
This is the largest yearly drop in US life expectancy since WW2. The last time US life expectancy was this low was 2003.
78.9 years - 2014
78.8 years - 2015 DOWN 0.1
78.7 years - 2016 DOWN 0.1
78.6 years - 2017 DOWN 0.1
78.7 years - 2018 UP 0.1
78.8 years - 2019 UP 0.1
77.3 years - 2020 DOWN 1.5
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I've been thinking about what US life expectancy will be in 2021. Looking at US COVID deaths in 2020 and thus far in 2021, we have:
366,000 COVID deaths - 2020
367,000 COVID deaths - 2021 as of October 10
The US is still averaging over 1,400 COVID deaths a day, so total deaths for the year will be approaching and in a worst case scenario even exceeding 450,000 deaths.
Since many US seniors have been fully vaccinated, I believe the average age of death for US COVID patients in 2021 will be lower than the average age in 2020. So, more deaths and at a younger age will almost certainly result in another substantial drop in US life expectancy in 2021, although I don't have enough information to make an educated guess about how large the drop will be.
This is the largest yearly drop in US life expectancy since WW2. The last time US life expectancy was this low was 2003.
78.9 years - 2014
78.8 years - 2015 DOWN 0.1
78.7 years - 2016 DOWN 0.1
78.6 years - 2017 DOWN 0.1
78.7 years - 2018 UP 0.1
78.8 years - 2019 UP 0.1
77.3 years - 2020 DOWN 1.5
************
I've been thinking about what US life expectancy will be in 2021. Looking at US COVID deaths in 2020 and thus far in 2021, we have:
366,000 COVID deaths - 2020
367,000 COVID deaths - 2021 as of October 10
The US is still averaging over 1,400 COVID deaths a day, so total deaths for the year will be approaching and in a worst case scenario even exceeding 450,000 deaths.
Since many US seniors have been fully vaccinated, I believe the average age of death for US COVID patients in 2021 will be lower than the average age in 2020. So, more deaths and at a younger age will almost certainly result in another substantial drop in US life expectancy in 2021, although I don't have enough information to make an educated guess about how large the drop will be.
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