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US life expectancy: 2020 and 2021

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  • US life expectancy: 2020 and 2021

    US life expectancy has been trending down since 2014, primarily due to obesity, drug addiction, and suicide. It increased slightly in 2018 and 2019, then plummeted by 1.5 years in 2020 because of COVID.

    This is the largest yearly drop in US life expectancy since WW2. The last time US life expectancy was this low was 2003.

    78.9 years - 2014
    78.8 years - 2015 DOWN 0.1
    78.7 years - 2016 DOWN 0.1
    78.6 years - 2017 DOWN 0.1
    78.7 years - 2018 UP 0.1
    78.8 years - 2019 UP 0.1
    77.3 years - 2020 DOWN 1.5


    ************

    I've been thinking about what US life expectancy will be in 2021. Looking at US COVID deaths in 2020 and thus far in 2021, we have:

    366,000 COVID deaths - 2020
    367,000 COVID deaths - 2021 as of October 10


    The US is still averaging over 1,400 COVID deaths a day, so total deaths for the year will be approaching and in a worst case scenario even exceeding 450,000 deaths.

    Since many US seniors have been fully vaccinated, I believe the average age of death for US COVID patients in 2021 will be lower than the average age in 2020. So, more deaths and at a younger age will almost certainly result in another substantial drop in US life expectancy in 2021, although I don't have enough information to make an educated guess about how large the drop will be.
    "We will repeal and replace disastrous Obamacare." - Donald Trump on July 22, 2016
    "I never said repeal and replace Obamacare." - Donald Trump on March 24, 2017

  • #2
    Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
    US life expectancy has been trending down since 2014, primarily due to obesity, drug addiction, and suicide. It increased slightly in 2018 and 2019, then plummeted by 1.5 years in 2020 because of COVID.

    This is the largest yearly drop in US life expectancy since WW2. The last time US life expectancy was this low was 2003.

    78.9 years - 2014
    78.8 years - 2015 DOWN 0.1
    78.7 years - 2016 DOWN 0.1
    78.6 years - 2017 DOWN 0.1
    78.7 years - 2018 UP 0.1
    78.8 years - 2019 UP 0.1
    77.3 years - 2020 DOWN 1.5


    ************

    I've been thinking about what US life expectancy will be in 2021. Looking at US COVID deaths in 2020 and thus far in 2021, we have:

    366,000 COVID deaths - 2020
    367,000 COVID deaths - 2021 as of October 10


    The US is still averaging over 1,400 COVID deaths a day, so total deaths for the year will be approaching and in a worst case scenario even exceeding 450,000 deaths.

    Since many US seniors have been fully vaccinated, I believe the average age of death for US COVID patients in 2021 will be lower than the average age in 2020. So, more deaths and at a younger age will almost certainly result in another substantial drop in US life expectancy in 2021, although I don't have enough information to make an educated guess about how large the drop will be.
    It is obviously not just the Chicom coronavirus that would cause such a drop but that together with people unable to get treatment for other health issues, a 30% increase in homicides in one year, a sharp increase in drug and alcohol use etc.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
      It is obviously not just the Chicom coronavirus that would cause such a drop but that together with people unable to get treatment for other health issues, a 30% increase in homicides in one year, a sharp increase in drug and alcohol use etc.
      Increase in suicides (especially youth suicides) due to the lockdowns as well.
      "So when you actually get the virus, you're going to start producing antibodies against multiple pieces of the virus. So, your antibodies are probably better at that point than the vaccination."
      - Pfizer Scientist Chris Croce

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      • #4
        Interesting - Australia has been showing marginal increases every year since 1969, with current life expectancy standing at 83.6 years - and projections show a steady 0.1+% increase can be expected through til the end of the century.
        sigpic1 Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω

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        • #5
          I am wondering how much effect the increase of murders among the youth in major cities has on that statistic.
          When I Survey....

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          • #6
            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            It is obviously not just the Chicom coronavirus that would cause such a drop but that together with people unable to get treatment for other health issues, a 30% increase in homicides in one year, a sharp increase in drug and alcohol use etc.
            Yup. In the last day, the local media had an article about cancer screenings dropping drastically in 2020 and now doctors are treating much more advanced staged cancer that might been caught and treated if normal screenings were available.
            "For I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings." Hosea 6:6

            "Theology can be an intellectual entertainment." Metropolitan Anthony Bloom

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Faber View Post
              I am wondering how much effect the increase of murders among the youth in major cities has on that statistic.
              Those and suicides, yes.
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                It is obviously not just the Chicom coronavirus that would cause such a drop but that together with people unable to get treatment for other health issues, a 30% increase in homicides in one year, a sharp increase in drug and alcohol use etc.
                Covid is the major play in the drop. And by major, I mean >90%.
                My 'faith' designation is 'Christian'. But I do not want the label "Christian" leading to mockery of faith in Christ. Consequently, I apologize if words of mine written in this post or others reflect poorly on the what Faith in Christ means, or what Faith in Christ can in fact do in terms of bringing Grace, Mercy, and Love into the world.

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                • #9
                  Whenever a statistic attributes a death to the China, it has to be asked: is that someone who died as a direct result of the China flu, or is that someone who happened to have the China flu but died from an unrelated cause? Because that's a significant difference, and a lot of agencies seem to be using the latter to artificially inflate the death count.
                  Last edited by Mountain Man; 10-11-2021, 12:39 PM.
                  Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                  But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                  Than a fool in the eyes of God


                  From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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