Fourth US COVID wave has started

[Cow Poke]

A big factor in Texas is the Border Crisis where hundreds and hundreds of illegals are coming across the border every day, many with COVID, and they are being allowed (and even transported) by the Biden Administration to live in counties in and out of Texas.

The unvaccinated rate is highest among minorities, so those communities are affected at a very disproportionate rate.

But, MUCH better to get the vapors over hospitals struggling than actually look at the causes.

[Cow Poke]

I read that NYT article about the Texas hospitals. Extremely worrying. That tents are being set up clearly shows the level of infections and lack of space in the building.

A) Texas is a BIG state
2) There are over 570 acute care hospitals in Texas - about 1/10 of all hospitals in the USA.
iii) A FEW of those hospitals in critical areas have added tents for overflow.
D) Often, this is done while a hospital is transitioning areas from regular or ICU care to COVID care
5) MANY hospitals are doing just fine
F) Already, some of those hospitals that were dealing with space issues are now adapted, and are requesting additional staffing.

But, hey, feel free to continue the fearmongering.

[Hypatia_Alexandria]

Daily new cases in the US now average over 125,000 (seven day average). The seven day average of deaths is now 537/day.

50% of COVID hospitalizations are in the following 8 states, even though these states contain only 25% of the US population. All these states are lagging the national average in vaccinations. I am providing a recent news headline for each state.

Alabama COVID hospitalizations soon to hit alarming new peak with no end in sight, state health officer warns

The State Of Arkansas Has Only 8 Empty ICU Beds, As COVID-19 Cases Resurge

Florida breaks daily COVID-19 record again with nearly 25K cases

New COVID-19 surge overwhelms hospitals across Georgia

COVID deaths surge, cases continue to rise in Louisiana as leaders fear 'catastrophic situation'

Mississippi braces for 'failure' of hospital system due to covid-19 surge and lack of ICU beds

Nevada reports more than 1K new COVID-19 cases, 24 deaths

Texas Hospitals Are Already Overloaded. Doctors Are ‘Frightened by What Is Coming.’

I read that NYT article about the Texas hospitals. Extremely worrying. That tents are being set up clearly shows the level of infections and lack of space in the building.

From that report: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/11/u...tions-icu.html

SAN ANTONIO — At least two hospitals in Houston have been so overwhelmed with coronavirus patients this week that officials erected overflow tents outside. In Austin, hospitals were nearly out of beds in their intensive care units. And in San Antonio, a spike in virus cases reached alarming levels not seen in months, with children as young as 2 months old tethered to supplemental oxygen.

Across Texas, health officials warned of overloaded, strained hospitals, a growing crisis not seen since early February, when a late winter wave deluged the state’s health care system. More than 10,000 Texans have been hospitalized this week and at least 53 hospitals were at maximum capacity in their intensive care units

“If this continues, and I have no reason to believe that it will not, there is no way my hospital is going to be able to handle this. There is no way the region is going to be able to handle this,” Dr. Esmaeil Porsa, a top health official in Harris County, which includes Houston, told state legislators on Tuesday. “I am one of those people that always sees the glass half-full, I always see the silver lining. But I am frightened by what is coming.”

In recent days, Texas has averaged about 12,400 new cases a day, nearly double the number seen just two weeks ago, according to a New York Times database. The spike comes as about one in five U.S. hospitals with intensive care units, or 583 total hospitals, recently reported that at least 95 percent of their I.C.U. beds were full. One worry about the highly contagious Delta variant, which has fueled surges across the country, is whether it might test the capacity of health systems.

Hospitals in New Orleans, Jackson, Miss., Miami and Huntsville, Ala., have been taxed this week, too, as cases continue to rise in those regions and elsewhere across the South. Texas is among several states grappling with dangerous surges exacerbated by the Delta variant, which the White House recently said was as contagious as the chickenpox.

Earlier this summer, cases skyrocketed in Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas. As in those states, the vast majority of patients hospitalized in Texas are not vaccinated, state officials said.

The sudden increase of infections has refocused national attention on the efficacy of masks and comes as the state’s governor, Greg Abbott, remains firm in his refusal to enact any statewide mandates requiring masks while also prohibiting local officials from doing so in their own communities. To help manage the surge, Mr. Abbott appealed this week to health care workers outside the state to travel to Texas and help the overloaded hospitals.

The number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations across the state is projected to climb to well over 15,000 by the end of August, according to the University of Texas at Austin’s Covid-19 model consortium.

“The fact that we’re having to construct the tents shows that the system in general is not prepared,” said Amanda Callaway, associate administrator for Harris Health System, which oversees the two hospitals in the Houston area requiring overflow space. “There’s lots of concern. There’s only so much you can do, only so many rooms. We’re just trying to respond as fast as we can.”

Aside from the tents, doctors are also treating patients in waiting rooms because of a shortage of beds, she said, adding that at least 90 percent of the coronavirus patients are unvaccinated.

Dr. David Persse, Houston’s chief medical officer, blamed inadequate attention by state officials to highlight the importance and necessity of vaccinations to stem the surge, with Mr. Abbott framing it as an issue of individual rights. “It’s the wrong approach,” Dr. Persse said. “The rhetoric around this has been such that people adhering to their right to make their own decisions are endangering themselves and their families.”

Mr. Abbott, like governors in Florida and elsewhere across the South, maintained his position even after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reversed course and recommended that both vaccinated and unvaccinated people wear masks indoors in high-risk areas. He issued an executive order prohibiting local governments from mandating vaccines and prohibiting school districts from enforcing masks.

[Cow Poke]

Texas Hospitals Are Already Overloaded. Doctors Are ‘Frightened by What Is Coming.’

Excellent supermarket tabloid headline!

My favorite was "Woman Gives Birth in Choir - Baby Comes Out Singing Amazing Grace".

[Reepicheep]

Daily new cases in the US now average over 125,000 (seven day average). The seven day average of deaths is now 537/day.

50% of COVID hospitalizations are in the following 8 states, even though these states contain only 25% of the US population. All these states are lagging the national average in vaccinations. I am providing a recent news headline for each state.

Alabama COVID hospitalizations soon to hit alarming new peak with no end in sight, state health officer warns

The State Of Arkansas Has Only 8 Empty ICU Beds, As COVID-19 Cases Resurge

Florida breaks daily COVID-19 record again with nearly 25K cases

New COVID-19 surge overwhelms hospitals across Georgia

COVID deaths surge, cases continue to rise in Louisiana as leaders fear 'catastrophic situation'

Mississippi braces for 'failure' of hospital system due to covid-19 surge and lack of ICU beds

Nevada reports more than 1K new COVID-19 cases, 24 deaths

Texas Hospitals Are Already Overloaded. Doctors Are ‘Frightened by What Is Coming.’

[Mountain Man]

The figures I keep seeing are that 98% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, and over 99% of those dying from COVID are unvaccinated.

Depends on where you're getting your figures. I've seen the ones you reference. I've seen other figures (for example, from England) indicating that nearly half of all hospitalizations for the China flu are people who are fully vaccinated. Still other figures suggest that most hospitalizations and deaths are those who were vaccinated.

The problem is that there doesn't seem to be any universal standard for detection and reporting (even in the US where things vary from state to state), and so the numbers are all over the place.

[Gondwanaland]

The figures I keep seeing are that 98% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, and over 99% of those dying from COVID are unvaccinated.

Meanwhile, those deaths:
usdeaths.PNG

[Reepicheep]

For the vaccinated this doesn't appear to be much of a big deal.

The figures I keep seeing are that 98% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, and over 99% of those dying from COVID are unvaccinated.

[Mountain Man]

I've added two more weeks of data to my table...

Where exactly is this "data" coming from?

[rogue06]

For the vaccinated this doesn't appear to be much of a big deal.

[Reepicheep]

I've added two more weeks of data to my table (seven day average of new COVID cases in the US, Monday of each week):

8,946 - May 31
16,058 - June 7 (down 15%)
13,969 - June 14 (down 13%)
12,007 - June 21 (down 14%)
13,240 - June 28 (up 10%)
15,368 - July 5 (up 16%)
22,564 - July 12 (up 47%)
37,416 - July 19 (up 66%)
59,739 - July 26 (up 60%)
88,897 - Aug 2 (up 49%)

As expected, daily deaths are now also starting to climb (US COVID deaths, 7 day Monday average):

240 - July 5
255 - July 12 (up 6%)
272 - July 19 (up 7%)
285 - July 26 (up 5%)
372 - Aug 2 (up 31%)

The best prediction I have found is that daily US deaths will peak at around 1,000/day in mid-September. The death rate should be substantially lower than the peak of 3,500/day back in January, largely because many older high risk seniors have been vaccinated.

***************************

Below are a few random news headlines from the past 24 hours:

Arkansas's Governor Says He Now Regrets Banning Masks In Schools

Dark times': Houston's (Texas) fourth COVID-19 wave to be the largest yet, medical leaders predict

Louisiana breaks record for COVID hospitalizations

All of Missouri now under substantial or high transmission of COVID-19

‘The Pied Piper leading us off a cliff’: Florida governor condemned as Covid surges

and so on...

[Gondwanaland]

You did say "seasonality/weather influences," did you not?

Yes. Why did you assume that meant "not winter"???? Are you saying winter is not a season? That it doesn't have specific weather conditions???

[tabibito]

Seasonal doesn't mean 'not winter'.

If we look at you, we see similar seasonality.

In fact, your current increase is almost literally identical down to the day and new case number.

You did say "seasonality/weather influences," did you not?

Looks like we're on a pretty similar increase (with lower cases though) as we were this time last year. Almost identical in timing, which to me indicates seasonality/weather influences.

[Gondwanaland]

It doesn't seem to be seasonal - it's winter here, and we are seeing increases too.

Seasonal doesn't mean 'not winter'.

If we look at you, we see similar seasonality.

In fact, your current increase is almost literally identical down to the day and new case number.

If you look at the start of the spike last year around June 26, it was 37 new cases. June 26 this year, right around the start of your increase, 35 new cases. Your cases are (similar to here in the US) not climbing as quickly as last year, but literally date-wise you're on EXACTLY the same mirrored increase.
egtgergregrgr.PNG

[tabibito]

Looks like we're on a pretty similar increase (with lower cases though) as we were this time last year. Almost identical in timing, which to me indicates seasonality/weather influences.

It doesn't seem to be seasonal - it's winter here, and we are seeing increases too.