Delta variant and all future global variant surges (all are free post)

[Stoic]

Nope, a leaky vaccine ensures evolution of strains that avoid vaccine-produced immunity. As we've seen.

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiolog...l.pbio.1002198

If a variant came along that was virulent enough to kill off an unvaccinated host quickly enough to reduce the number of people that host could infect, and a vaccine allowed the host to live long enough to infect a greater number, then the vaccine might be implicated in the spread of that variant.

There is no sign that any such variants have arisen. The infectious period is over long before the host dies, even among the unvaccinated.

This one is even more interesting in light of the recent surges even in highly vaccinated areas:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science...irus-dangerous


It's looking more and more like the vaccinated are causing this recent surge.

If you want it to look like that bad enough, then it will look like that, to you.

[Gondwanaland]

If a variant came along that was virulent enough to kill off an unvaccinated host quickly enough to reduce the number of people that host could infect, and a vaccine allowed the host to live long enough to infect a greater number, then the vaccine might be implicated in the spread of that variant.

Nope, doesn't require it to be 'virulent enough' for that. Simply something more virulent fits. Like Delta, etc.

If you'd prefer a visual look at how the leaky vaccines have pushed the evolution of strains and substrains, here we go:
E8OGIRHWQAAoDvl.jpg

There is no sign that any such variants have arisen. The infectious period is over long before the host dies, even among the unvaccinated.


If you want it to look like that bad enough, then it will look like that, to you.

I don't 'want it to look like that', it simply does, by all sane observances. The vaccinated are doing the exact same as those vaccinated chickens did.

[Stoic]

Nope, doesn't require it to be 'virulent enough' for that. Simply something more virulent fits. Like Delta, etc.

Delta might be more virulent, but it is not so virulent that one would expect a vaccinated person to infect more people than an unvaccinated person, especially when one takes into account how much less likely the vaccinated person is to get infected in the first place.

If you'd prefer a visual look at how the leaky vaccines have pushed the evolution of strains and substrains, here we go:
E8OGIRHWQAAoDvl.jpg

All your chart proves is that some variants are much more contagious than others, which is not exactly news.

[Gondwanaland]

Delta might be more virulent, but it is not so virulent that one would expect a vaccinated person to infect more people than an unvaccinated person, especially when one takes into account how much less likely the vaccinated person is to get infected in the first place.

The actual trends we've seen indicate otherwise. As to your 'how much less likely the vaccinated person is to get infected in the first place", that's a load of hogwash manufactured by the CDC which stopped counting "breakthrough cases" months ago.

All your chart proves is that some variants are much more contagious than others, which is not exactly news.

Er, no. The chart shows that the emergence of the variants that are more contagious (and a large increase in substrains amongst those) coincides with the increased introduction of the leaky vaccines.

[Stoic]

The actual trends we've seen indicate otherwise.

What trends are you talking about?

As to your 'how much less likely the vaccinated person is to get infected in the first place", that's a load of hogwash manufactured by the CDC which stopped counting "breakthrough cases" months ago.

The CDC doesn't have to count all "breakthrough cases" in order for us to find out how effective the vaccines are against infection.

https://www.businessinsider.com/boos...er-time-2021-8

Er, no. The chart shows that the emergence of the variants that are more contagious (and a large increase in substrains amongst those) coincides with the increased introduction of the leaky vaccines.

I'm sure you've heard of the post hoc fallacy. Your claim is a pretty good example of it.

As for your "leaky vaccine" hypothesis, you might want to see what Andrew Read, the scientist who did the study on the Marek's vaccine in chickens, thinks of it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andream...h=50698b507bd1

[Cerebrum123]

Hmmm... it seems the CDC simply stopped tracking so-called "breakthrough cases" among the vaccinated in May 2021 in order to make the vaccines appear more effective than they really are.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com...booster-shots/

From the CDC themselves.

Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die, thereby focusing on the cases of highest clinical and public health significance. CDC will continue to lead studies in multiple U.S. sites to evaluate vaccine effectiveness and collect information on all COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections regardless of clinical status.

I put the link so people can read the full context of the CDC statement.

[Gondwanaland]

What trends are you talking about?

The rise in delta, etc.

The CDC doesn't have to count all "breakthrough cases" in order for us to find out how effective the vaccines are against infection.

https://www.businessinsider.com/boos...er-time-2021-8

Er, yes it does. If you don't know how many of your cases are in people with vaccines you have ZERO way of knowing how actual effective they are IRL, as well as rendering the actual numbers useless.

I'm sure you've heard of the post hoc fallacy. Your claim is a pretty good example of it.

As for your "leaky vaccine" hypothesis, you might want to see what Andrew Read, the scientist who did the study on the Marek's vaccine in chickens, thinks of it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andream...h=50698b507bd1

Sounds like he doesn't want to be called a conspiracy theorist. Much like the scientists who fibbed about the whole lab theory for nearly a year.

[Stoic]

The rise in delta, etc.

That just tells us that delta is much more contagious than earlier versions.

Er, yes it does. If you don't know how many of your cases are in people with vaccines you have ZERO way of knowing how actual effective they are IRL, as well as rendering the actual numbers useless.

Every study that tells us how effective the vaccines are is counting the number of breakthrough cases.

Sounds like he doesn't want to be called a conspiracy theorist. Much like the scientists who fibbed about the whole lab theory for nearly a year.

I get the impression you read the wrong article.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/andreamorris/2021/08/08/joe-rogan-is-getting-this-completely-wrong-says-the-scientist-who-conducted-the-vaccine-study/?sh=50698b507bd1

Are mRNA vaccines ‘leaky’?

Rogan seems to think that mRNA vaccines are quite leaky because of breakthrough infections. Read points out that no vaccine is 100% effective. Although we still need more data to determine how leaky they are, the rate of breakthrough infections in vaccinated people remains statistically low enough to consider the mRNA vaccines highly effective at preventing infection.

“We don't know at the moment how leaky these things are. It's conceivable that they are actually close to non-leaky. I'm amazed how good these mRNA vaccines are. They're incredibly good.”

Read’s very concerned that misrepresentation of his research is causing vaccine hesitancy.

“The study was tweeted a thousand times last night, according to our metrics,” says Read. “I had a physician in England reach out to me on Friday asking me to [clarify] because his patients are using my paper to argue against vaccination.” Calling into question the effectiveness of vaccines was never the intention of his 2015 study. “I am genuinely shocked. I've been doing work for 20 years now on how vaccines might drive the evolution of viruses. There's nothing in any of that 20 years work that argues in favor of withholding lifesaving vaccines. It's just shocking to me.” He adds, “There are 600,000 Americans dead so far. The vast majority of those deaths are vaccine-preventable. There's not a single scenario that would argue in favor of not using [vaccines] to save the next hundred thousand. Not one scenario.”

And another thing: vaccines even worked on the chickens Read was studying.

“The [poultry] industry was being hammered by that virus. They made the discovery in the 1960s of a way to vaccinate that saved the industry a fortune,” says Read. “[It] kept many, many chickens from dying horrible deaths. It was absolutely terrific. And then after 10 years, evolution caused some problems which required a different vaccine, which was developed very quickly. And that held for another 10 years. And then the third generation of vaccine is why your chicken nuggets are still cheap. It's worked now for 30 or 40 years. And it stopped the virus evolution. Almost certainly the reason it stopped the virus evolution is because it stopped transmission. So even in the chicken case, there's no argument at all why you'd want to be an unvaccinated chicken.”

Is Read vaccinated?

“Yes. My partner, my kids, everybody, as soon as we could. Yeah.”

Is Read being pressured to conform to mainstream Science?

“No!” He throws his head back, laughing. Then his tone shifts…

The price we pay from misinformation

“What really gets me, apart from the fact that I do think this is a public health threat–[that] people who are arguing against vaccinations are doing other people great harm. Apart from that, I really get concerned that this sort of disinformation, or this inappropriate interpretation means that it's very difficult for us scientists to actually ask serious questions about how evolution might proceed and get a good look at it because we get this concern that our work will be taken and twisted.”

“Those of us who are very interested in the way the evolution might go, have trouble doing the work, or at least talking about it, because of the concern that people like Joe Rogan will twist it and use it in the wrong way.”

“I think we have a moral obligation as scientists and public health people to look at the evolution going forward, keep a good eye on it, make sure that if anything is happening that we don't like, that we rapidly develop vaccines to pick it up and sort it out. I can't see any scenario where we can't address possible evolutionary consequences by tweaking the vaccines or [by developing] next-generation vaccines. Vaccines are the way out of this.”

© Copyright Original Source

[seanD]

That just tells us that delta is much more contagious than earlier versions.


Every study that tells us how effective the vaccines are is counting the number of breakthrough cases.


I get the impression you read the wrong article.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/andreamorris/2021/08/08/joe-rogan-is-getting-this-completely-wrong-says-the-scientist-who-conducted-the-vaccine-study/?sh=50698b507bd1

Are mRNA vaccines ‘leaky’?

Rogan seems to think that mRNA vaccines are quite leaky because of breakthrough infections. Read points out that no vaccine is 100% effective. Although we still need more data to determine how leaky they are, the rate of breakthrough infections in vaccinated people remains statistically low enough to consider the mRNA vaccines highly effective at preventing infection.

“We don't know at the moment how leaky these things are. It's conceivable that they are actually close to non-leaky. I'm amazed how good these mRNA vaccines are. They're incredibly good.”

Read’s very concerned that misrepresentation of his research is causing vaccine hesitancy.

“The study was tweeted a thousand times last night, according to our metrics,” says Read. “I had a physician in England reach out to me on Friday asking me to [clarify] because his patients are using my paper to argue against vaccination.” Calling into question the effectiveness of vaccines was never the intention of his 2015 study. “I am genuinely shocked. I've been doing work for 20 years now on how vaccines might drive the evolution of viruses. There's nothing in any of that 20 years work that argues in favor of withholding lifesaving vaccines. It's just shocking to me.” He adds, “There are 600,000 Americans dead so far. The vast majority of those deaths are vaccine-preventable. There's not a single scenario that would argue in favor of not using [vaccines] to save the next hundred thousand. Not one scenario.”

And another thing: vaccines even worked on the chickens Read was studying.

“The [poultry] industry was being hammered by that virus. They made the discovery in the 1960s of a way to vaccinate that saved the industry a fortune,” says Read. “[It] kept many, many chickens from dying horrible deaths. It was absolutely terrific. And then after 10 years, evolution caused some problems which required a different vaccine, which was developed very quickly. And that held for another 10 years. And then the third generation of vaccine is why your chicken nuggets are still cheap. It's worked now for 30 or 40 years. And it stopped the virus evolution. Almost certainly the reason it stopped the virus evolution is because it stopped transmission. So even in the chicken case, there's no argument at all why you'd want to be an unvaccinated chicken.”

Is Read vaccinated?

“Yes. My partner, my kids, everybody, as soon as we could. Yeah.”

Is Read being pressured to conform to mainstream Science?

“No!” He throws his head back, laughing. Then his tone shifts…

The price we pay from misinformation

“What really gets me, apart from the fact that I do think this is a public health threat–[that] people who are arguing against vaccinations are doing other people great harm. Apart from that, I really get concerned that this sort of disinformation, or this inappropriate interpretation means that it's very difficult for us scientists to actually ask serious questions about how evolution might proceed and get a good look at it because we get this concern that our work will be taken and twisted.”

“Those of us who are very interested in the way the evolution might go, have trouble doing the work, or at least talking about it, because of the concern that people like Joe Rogan will twist it and use it in the wrong way.”

“I think we have a moral obligation as scientists and public health people to look at the evolution going forward, keep a good eye on it, make sure that if anything is happening that we don't like, that we rapidly develop vaccines to pick it up and sort it out. I can't see any scenario where we can't address possible evolutionary consequences by tweaking the vaccines or [by developing] next-generation vaccines. Vaccines are the way out of this.”

© Copyright Original Source

Problem is, everything is so political, we don't know what scientific "misinformation" is anymore, because not only have scientific conspiracy theories suddenly become plausible theories, but the science on all things covid keeps changing so rapidly, from month to month in some cases.

[Mountain Man]

I don't 'want it to look like that', it simply does, by all sane observances. The vaccinated are doing the exact same as those vaccinated chickens did.

There is also some question whether or not the Delta variant is actually a variant, or if it's simply a reaction to the vaccine. Furthermore, it seems that current testing can't differentiate between the original strain and this so-called "variant". When I had to have my family tested for the China flu recently, the report we received back emphasized this fact.

[Mountain Man]

From the CDC themselves.

Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die, thereby focusing on the cases of highest clinical and public health significance. CDC will continue to lead studies in multiple U.S. sites to evaluate vaccine effectiveness and collect information on all COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections regardless of clinical status.

I put the link so people can read the full context of the CDC statement.

Yep, so the numbers are deliberately skewed in favor of the vaccinated. Another trick is to reduce the number of cycles used in the PCR test for vaccinated versus unvaccinated, making it more likely that unvaccinated will test positive. So across the board, from multiple government agencies, they are doing everything they can to give the false impression that the vaccines are safe and effective when an honest evaluation of the data suggests otherwise.

[Roy]

There is also some question whether or not the Delta variant is actually a variant, or if it's simply a reaction to the vaccine.

The Delta variant not only has a different genetic sequence, information on which has been publicly available for months, it was identified and named before vaccines were widely available, as can be seen in the data posted in this very thread.

Anyone who thinks there is even a possibility that the delta variant may be "simply a reaction to the vaccine" is so completely ignorant of the virus, the vaccine and the pandemic timeline that they really should shut up lest they inadvertently influence some-one to take potentially fatal risks.

[rogue06]

There is also some question whether or not the Delta variant is actually a variant, or if it's simply a reaction to the vaccine. Furthermore, it seems that current testing can't differentiate between the original strain and this so-called "variant". When I had to have my family tested for the China flu recently, the report we received back emphasized this fact.

IIRC, the Delta variant was identified in several countries well before vaccinations were available.

[Thoughtful Monk]

IIRC, the Delta variant was identified in several countries well before vaccinations were available.

That was my memory as well so I took a moment to look it up. Delta (although not yet so named) emerged in India in December 2020. Certainly before vaccines were available in the US much less India.

[Sparko]

I just got checked for antiobdies after I took the booster shot 5 weeks ago. I now have antibodies!

After the first 2 shots I had zero antibodies showing. The third did the trick for me.