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The Liberals Who Can’t Quit Lockdown

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  • #16
    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

    Children still carry it and are thus vulnerable and continue to provide vectors for mutation and spread, and we don't know exactly how long till they can get vaccinated. Breakthrough cases happen ( poeple still get sick even fully vaccinated, people still die even fully vaccinated - its just 1/10,000 instead of 1 or 2 in 100). 30% of eligable Americans are reluctant to get the vaccine, making herd immunity a goal we likely can't reach without forcing people to get vaccinated, which means the virus will still circulate, kill 1 to 2% of those unvaccinated poeple and continuing to have a capacity to mutate.

    India is completely out of control, with a population of over 1 billion, that is a sizable breeding ground for vaccine savvy mutants.

    I agree, there is indeed still ample reason for continued caution, even with the significant progress being made.
    Being a carrier does not necessarily mean being vulnerable. Children have the lowest rates of infection and prevalence.

    Public Health policy is NEVER about the outliers - it's about the mean. Case management deals with the outliers - not the advice we give the public. Because that's how excellent public health policy actually benefits everyone.

    In 18 years of working with syphilitic patients I saw TWO instances of c. lata, which is two more than most doctors will see in their entire careers. C. lata gets a mention in symptom discussions but we spend a lot more time on P&P rashes. Because P&P is far more common and is most often mistaken by the patient as harmless. I had one patient hit the low probability jackpot with c. lata as her symptom in her second round of secondary syphilis - interesting case for a DIS, totally useless for guiding public health policy. However, had she not written off the P&P rash she had the first time through secondary, there wouldn't have been a second. That's why we set policies around the mean and median, not the outliers.

    Also, stop the fearmongering. Cases in the hundreds of thousands in a population of a billion isn't the apocalypse for an infectious respiratory disease. It's not a good thing for the patients but they also aren't breeding the Andromeda strain.

    Leave public health to the experts and the rational people. Seriously, this kind of hysteria gives Karens a bad name.
    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

    My Personal Blog

    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

    Quill Sword

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    • #17
      I think everyone who is afraid of dying from covid should stay home. And everyone afraid of dying from car accidents should stay off the highways. And everyone afraid of dying from a lightning strike should stay indoors. And everyone afraid of drowning in the bathtub should take showers.

      The rest of the world - people with enough courage to face life and death from anything - can then go about their business unhindered.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Ronson View Post
        I think everyone who is afraid of dying from covid should stay home. And everyone afraid of dying from car accidents should stay off the highways. And everyone afraid of dying from a lightning strike should stay indoors. And everyone afraid of drowning in the bathtub should take showers.

        The rest of the world - people with enough courage to face life and death from anything - can then go about their business unhindered.
        And, since most auto accidents happen within 20 miles from home - everybody should move at least 50 miles from home.
        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

        Comment


        • #19
          The part I want to focus on is the argument that it is a sign of white supremacy to want to re-open schools. If we're seeing arguments that illogical, that suggests that the issue is a totem of a broader worldview for these people. (I don't know *how* widespread that is; I reside in probably one of the most progressive school districts outside of the West Coast or Massachusetts, and the schools opened here with little controversy, with a black superintendent leading the way).
          "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
            Leave public health to the experts and the rational people.
            Unfortunately, those people do not seem to be in abundance at the top levels of our state and federal governments. In fact, one chart I posted in another thread suggested that the primary difference between states that implemented extreme mitigation measures and those that didn't is that the latter experienced lower unemployment. In other words, nothing the government did stopped people from contracting the China flu.
            Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
            But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
            Than a fool in the eyes of God


            From "Fools Gold" by Petra

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Teallaura View Post

              Being a carrier does not necessarily mean being vulnerable. Children have the lowest rates of infection and prevalence.
              But they can spread the disease to more vulnerable populations, and as long as a significant portion of the US population refuses vaccination, that presents the capacity for another surge in infections and deaths, especially since such sentiments tend to be localised.

              Public Health policy is NEVER about the outliers - it's about the mean. Case management deals with the outliers - not the advice we give the public. Because that's how excellent public health policy actually benefits everyone.
              Not saying it is about outliers. I'm saying that as long as there is a significant unvacinated population, children that carry and spread the disease are a danger to them. And the more they are together with other unvacinated people (their classmates) the more potential there is for an outbreak.

              Now - to be clear - I am not advocating for keeping schools closed. I am saying that the idea it's time to give an all clear may be a bit premature. We still need to have conditions around opening the schools, and the CDC guidence gives us those conditions. And if there were to be a significant outbreak in an area, we probably don't need to open schools in that area, or we may need to close them.

              In 18 years of working with syphilitic patients I saw TWO instances of c. lata, which is two more than most doctors will see in their entire careers. C. lata gets a mention in symptom discussions but we spend a lot more time on P&P rashes. Because P&P is far more common and is most often mistaken by the patient as harmless. I had one patient hit the low probability jackpot with c. lata as her symptom in her second round of secondary syphilis - interesting case for a DIS, totally useless for guiding public health policy. However, had she not written off the P&P rash she had the first time through secondary, there wouldn't have been a second. That's why we set policies around the mean and median, not the outliers.
              Thanks for the reminder, but I am well aware of that. And I'm not advocating for anything else. I am saying there are still good reasons to be cautious. We have jumped too early several times this last year. We need to learn from that.

              Also, stop the fearmongering. Cases in the hundreds of thousands in a population of a billion isn't the apocalypse for an infectious respiratory disease. It's not a good thing for the patients but they also aren't breeding the Andromeda strain.


              You clearly are completely unaware of what is happening in india. They have had 380,000+ new infections EACH DAY for over a week now. Over 400,000 per day the last 3 days Their hospitals are overwhelmed and they don't have the oxygen, supplies, or the vaccines they need. The virus is running rampant there, and the government officials are acting irresponsibly in how they are dealing with it. Yesterday they had 404,000 new cases. They have had 21.5 MILLION cases so far, rising @ ~400,000 per day, that is 2.8 million new cases per week (and at a 1.5% mortality that is 40,000 new deaths per week in 3 weeks time). They saw 4000 deaths YESTERDAY. They have seen 10,000,000 new cases in the last 6 WEEKS. And that looks to double that in the next 2 WEEKS.

              The curve looks to be leveling off - which is good. But with 3.5 million active cases, they are looking at at least 35,000 - 50,000 more deaths even if miraculously no-one else got sick from this day forward. Keeping to reality and 400,000 new cases per day, they are looking at at least 70,000 more deaths just from last week and the upcoming week.


              Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-07-2021, 04:44 PM.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Ronson View Post
                I think everyone who is afraid of dying from covid should stay home. And everyone afraid of dying from car accidents should stay off the highways. And everyone afraid of dying from a lightning strike should stay indoors. And everyone afraid of drowning in the bathtub should take showers.

                The rest of the world - people with enough courage to face life and death from anything - can then go about their business unhindered.
                It's why I've been saying that the pandemic will be over as soon as We The People decide that it's over. We just need to stop letting the government push us around.
                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by CivilDiscourse View Post
                  Science says it is safe to re-open schools.
                  It's always hilarious on this forum when I see conservatives who ignore science in general, get fixated on one issue where they happen to (wrongly) believe the science is on their side, and repeat it over and over again.

                  In my country, which rigorously tracks every covid case, we saw that schools can serve as a transmission vector for covid and be a source of outbreaks among students.
                  "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                  "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                  "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Healthy people need to wear masks and socially distance so that they don't make other people sick... or... something...

                    Shut up! It's settled science!
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                      Unfortunately, those people do not seem to be in abundance at the top levels of our state and federal governments. In fact, one chart I posted in another thread suggested that the primary difference between states that implemented extreme mitigation measures and those that didn't is that the latter experienced lower unemployment. In other words, nothing the government did stopped people from contracting the China flu.
                      The CDC is and always has been a political agency - but this time they are letting the inmates run the asylum. Still, they're starting to respond to the internal and state pressure. The real pros - not the admins - know how idiotic some of this is and how badly this is going to damage public health. It's undermining the public trust and public health can't do its job without that trust.
                      "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                      "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                      My Personal Blog

                      My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                      Quill Sword

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        It's always hilarious on this forum when I see conservatives who ignore science in general, get fixated on one issue where they happen to (wrongly) believe the science is on their side, and repeat it over and over again.

                        In my country, which rigorously tracks every covid case, we saw that schools can serve as a transmission vector for covid and be a source of outbreaks among students.
                        Source please
                        "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                        "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                        My Personal Blog

                        My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                        Quill Sword

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          The U.S. Centers for Disease Control slipped in a shocking piece of evidence in a recent report on low in-school COVID-19 transmission that severely undercuts the rationale for most COVID restrictions, including lockdowns.

                          [...]

                          “Children might be more likely to be asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 than are adults…This apparent lack of transmission [in schools] is consistent with recent research (5), which found an asymptomatic attack rate of only 0.7% within households and a lower rate of transmission from children than from adults. However, this study was unable to rule out asymptomatic transmission within the school setting because surveillance testing was not conducted” (emphasis added).

                          The “recent research” the study authors cite is a meta-analysis of 54 household COVID-19 transmission studies that observed 77,758 participants, which was posted as a pre-print this summer and published in December.

                          The text of the analysis is even more consequential than the CDC’s reference makes it seem: “Estimated mean household secondary attack rate from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) was significantly higher than from asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%; P < .001), although there were few studies in the latter group. These findings are consistent with other household studies reporting asymptomatic index cases as having limited role in household transmission” (emphasis added).

                          The 0.7 percent figure includes not just people who never show symptoms of COVID-19, but people who haven’t yet shown symptoms—two groups that have been alleged to be major factors driving the spread of the virus. This is a major data point often underplayed or even challenged in much media coverage of the virus.

                          https://thefederalist.com/2021/02/24...omatic-spread/
                          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                          Than a fool in the eyes of God


                          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

                            But they can spread the disease to more vulnerable populations, and as long as a significant portion of the US population refuses vaccination, that presents the capacity for another surge in infections and deaths, especially since such sentiments tend to be localised.



                            Not saying it is about outliers. I'm saying that as long as there is a significant unvacinated population, children that carry and spread the disease are a danger to them. And the more they are together with other unvacinated people (their classmates) the more potential there is for an outbreak.

                            Now - to be clear - I am not advocating for keeping schools closed. I am saying that the idea it's time to give an all clear may be a bit premature. We still need to have conditions around opening the schools, and the CDC guidence gives us those conditions. And if there were to be a significant outbreak in an area, we probably don't need to open schools in that area, or we may need to close them.



                            Thanks for the reminder, but I am well aware of that. And I'm not advocating for anything else. I am saying there are still good reasons to be cautious. We have jumped too early several times this last year. We need to learn from that.





                            You clearly are completely unaware of what is happening in india. They have had 380,000+ new infections EACH DAY for over a week now. Over 400,000 per day the last 3 days Their hospitals are overwhelmed and they don't have the oxygen, supplies, or the vaccines they need. The virus is running rampant there, and the government officials are acting irresponsibly in how they are dealing with it. Yesterday they had 404,000 new cases. They have had 21.5 MILLION cases so far, rising @ ~400,000 per day, that is 2.8 million new cases per week (and at a 1.5% mortality that is 40,000 new deaths per week in 3 weeks time). They saw 4000 deaths YESTERDAY. They have seen 10,000,000 new cases in the last 6 WEEKS. And that looks to double that in the next 2 WEEKS.

                            The curve looks to be leveling off - which is good. But with 3.5 million active cases, they are looking at at least 35,000 - 50,000 more deaths even if miraculously no-one else got sick from this day forward. Keeping to reality and 400,000 new cases per day, they are looking at at least 70,000 more deaths just from last week and the upcoming week.

                            Nah, you just stink at comparative analysis - go get their influenza numbers to see what normal infectious respiratory prevalence looks like -- and remember to multiply by two to account for the underreporting - India isn't known for its disease surveillance.

                            Or great data reporting...
                            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                            My Personal Blog

                            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                            Quill Sword

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Teallaura View Post

                              Nah, you just stink at comparative analysis - go get their influenza numbers to see what normal infectious respiratory prevalence looks like -- and remember to multiply by two to account for the underreporting - India isn't known for its disease surveillance.

                              Or great data reporting...
                              I don't understand why you are being so callous about what is happening in India.
                              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

                                And, since most auto accidents happen within 20 miles from home - everybody should move at least 50 miles from home.

                                Comment

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