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How many Americans have died from covid?

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  • #46
    Originally posted by mossrose View Post

    Firstly, your opening comments are certainly calling CP's honesty into question, so stop playing semantics.
    No, it was acknowledging he may have been told in one way or the other exactly what he reported. There is no need to be hostile mossy.

    Secondly, what about those reports where people who make an appointment for a test, don't show up, and get notifications that they are positive?
    I have no knowledge of that, but we are dealing with millions of tests and thousands of testers, mistakes happen. Mostly that is random noise that effects precision but not accuracy.

    Thirdly, guess what? I don't care about what the "experts" you've cited say. Do you really think they are going to admit that they've been fudging the numbers?
    Just putting the facts out there mossy. You can believe whatever you want.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by mossrose View Post

      If other deaths from other causes during covid are counted as covid deaths, then that makes the actual number of covid deaths lower if the case numbers are artificially high.

      Please don't patronize me.
      You ask me not to patronize you, and yet your statement above is highly inaccurate. Covid deaths are determined by A) testing of the person before they die determining they have covid, or B) testing post mortum (meaning there was no previous test). If there are extra tests per case (what is being proposed) then the only way Mortality is too high is if the percent excess deaths is greater than the percent excess tests.

      There is significant evidence COVID deaths are in fact underreported, even taking into account some of the issues raised wrt complex causes of death (i.e. more than one disease process is active at the time of death) potentially flagging some non-covid deaths as covid related.

      So my point was, IF what CP reported was in fact common, Covid is in fact quite a bit more deadly than the statistics would imply. But that would tend to imply the CDC and other organizations are trying to hide how deadly covid is by putting in place polices that will diminish the real mortality - which clearly is not the case.

      HOWEVER - the US covid MORTALITY is not in fact significantly lower than that seen in other Euorpean countries, and so from a big picture standpoint, even if the person that told CP every test is counted as a case is in fact conveying accurate information for that specific office, county, or state, it is not likely that is a wide enough phenomenon that it is skewing the mortality significantly.

      However, as my second post showed, that is NOT the policy of the CDC, and the rampant misinformation out there on this issue has resulted in many local news organizations looking into the issue, with the bottom line being that is not the actual policy. As in fact it should not be.
      Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-08-2021, 12:17 PM.
      He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

      "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
        My daughter works for a company doing thousands of tests a day. Yes, they do count as separate instances. They upload data to the CDC on the total number of tests that came back positive, negative, and undetermined that were tested that day. They do not correlate them to names for the CDC reporting.
        Any such double-counting has no effect on the number of reported deaths. While people can test positive more than once, I know of no cases where someone has died of COVID-19 twice.
        Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

        mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

        Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
        Mountain Man: … this is how liberals argue these days, with labels instead of ideas.
        Mountain Man on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

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        • #49
          Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

          No, it was acknowledging he may have been told in one way or the other exactly what he reported. There is no need to be hostile mossy.
          No, you were playing with words to make it seem you weren't calling him dishonest. And I wasn't being hostile.



          I have no knowledge of that, but we are dealing with millions of tests and thousands of testers, mistakes happen. Mostly that is random noise that effects precision but not accuracy.



          Just putting the facts out there mossy. You can believe whatever you want.
          And you are free to believe whatever you want.


          Securely anchored to the Rock amid every storm of trial, testing or tribulation.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post

            My daughter works for a company doing thousands of tests a day. Yes, they do count as separate instances. They upload data to the CDC on the total number of tests that came back positive, negative, and undetermined that were tested that day. They do not correlate them to names for the CDC reporting.
            That is an interesting statement - and is contrary to the official policy of the CDC. There are many possibilities here, Two which might be that either the CDC policy may not be being adhered to, or there may be data or codes in the uploaded data (or ancillary communications) your daughter is not aware of. Certainly it would be useful to try to get to the bottom of it and discover what the truth is. However, my original comment to mossy stands, if tests are counted as cases - meaning there are significantly fewer cases than are being reported, then mortality is significantly underestimated - and that would be a failing in the system that would be quite dangerous to public health and safety. It would also be the opposite of the sorts of misinformation that is flowing rather freely on the internet about the severity of the pandemic.
            He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

            "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by Roy View Post
              Any such double-counting has no effect on the number of reported deaths.
              Cow Poke & Associates rate that claim mostly true.

              While people can test positive more than once, I know of no cases where someone has died of COVID-19 twice.
              No, but people who died of other causes - or other causes "with Covid" - are often assumed to be Covid deaths.
              "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by Roy View Post
                Any such double-counting has no effect on the number of reported deaths. While people can test positive more than once, I know of no cases where someone has died of COVID-19 twice.
                Was only mentioning that multiple positives are not treated as one when it comes to testing.
                That's what
                - She

                Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                Stephen R. Donaldson

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by mossrose View Post

                  No, you were playing with words to make it seem you weren't calling him dishonest. And I wasn't being hostile.

                  You are completely in error as to my intent and purpose in acknowledging my belief that CP was reporting what he had heard accurately and honestly.
                  Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-08-2021, 12:36 PM.
                  He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

                  "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post


                    You simply are not capable of determining my intent Mossy. And I'm telling you my intent was to avoid conflict and keep things civil. But it takes two for that to happen. I can't control how you or CP respond to my posts, I can only do what I can to keep things civil - which is what I did then, and what I'm doing now.
                    I am not capable of determining your intent. You are correct on that. However, everybody can read what you type. And from that your intent is clear.

                    However, you may carry on and I will not.


                    Securely anchored to the Rock amid every storm of trial, testing or tribulation.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                      You simply are not capable of determining my intent Mossy. And I'm telling you my intent was to avoid conflict and keep things civil. But it takes two for that to happen. I can't control how you or CP respond to my posts, I can only do what I can to keep things civil - which is what I did then, and what I'm doing now.
                      If your words do not accurately convey your intent, then you need to choose your words more carefully.
                      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                      Than a fool in the eyes of God


                      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

                        ...


                        No, but people who died of other causes - or other causes "with Covid" - are often assumed to be Covid deaths.
                        That is a second little bit of mostly misinformation. Given impercect knowledge and scope, it is inevitable that in some cases where multiple disease processes are active the 'true' cause of death is misreported. But that can go either way - away from covid or towards it. And there could even be a biasing agent (e.g. more $$$ come from reporting a covid death which biases questionable causes towards covid). But the reality is ancillary data shows that excess deaths in the year of covid EXCEED the deaths reported for covid. And that would tend to imply that any such mistakes or small bias is compensated by other factors which cause actual covid deaths to be missed.

                        https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

                        https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771761

                        Source: above

                        Although total US death counts are remarkably consistent from year to year, US deaths increased by 20% during March-July 2020. COVID-19 was a documented cause of only 67% of these excess deaths.

                        © Copyright Original Source




                        So the excess excess deaths march - July 2020 would include incidental effects (people not going to a hospitals, cancelled appointments resulting in death as a consequence of the shutdown), they also tend to indicate COVID-19 deaths, in spite of the sorts of anecdotal evidence we see here rather regularly, are underreported.
                        He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

                        "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                          If your words do not accurately convey your intent, then you need to choose your words more carefully.
                          My words did accurately convey my intent. It is only by assuming hidden ulterior motives that any other conclusion can be reached.
                          He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

                          "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by mossrose View Post

                            I am not capable of determining your intent. You are correct on that. However, everybody can read what you type. And from that your intent is clear.

                            However, you may carry on and I will not.
                            My intent was to make sure CP understood I believed he was accurately reporting what he had heard and seen. That is what I said, that is what I meant. Any other conclusion was your own and not based on the written text.
                            He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

                            "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

                              My words did accurately convey my intent. It is only by assuming hidden ulterior motives that any other conclusion can be reached.
                              You're right, it must be everybody else's fault. There's no other explanation.
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                              Comment

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