Have any of you gotten a vaccine?

[KingsGambit]

Serious question...

The reporting has been that herd immunity requires 80% vaccination. Given that half the population is too young to be vaccinated, how is that going to be possible? I read one news article awhile back where an epidemiologist acknowledged this fact, but strangely haven't seen it anywhere else. And given that the vaccine is only known to be effective for 6-9 months, and mass vaccination of children is at least that far away, how would it be possible for vaccination to be a way out?

[oxmixmudd]

Better than a 99% survival rate, and it's not linear. In other words, 1% of the US population is not guaranteed to die from the China flu. People who are older with pre-existing conditions and more susceptible to diseases in general (like the elderly that Democrat governors were packing into nursing homes) are at a considerably greater risk than the young and the healthy

1% already takes al that into account in terms of counting real deaths if the virus is left to its own and assuming the availability of 1st world quality medical care. It is a cumulative percentage. What could change that would be changes in demographics one country to another, but I'm talking the whole of the US with that number.

It wasn't "luck", ox. Common sense should tell you that someone who is not sick or symptomatic is at zero risk of infecting someone else ...

false. And the reason has been discussed multiple times. This virus can be spread before a person shows symptoms.

[oxmixmudd]

Serious question...

The reporting has been that herd immunity requires 80% vaccination. Given that half the population is too young to be vaccinated, how is that going to be possible? I read one news article awhile back where an epidemiologist acknowledged this fact, but strangely haven't seen it anywhere else. And given that the vaccine is only known to be effective for 6-9 months, and mass vaccination of children is at least that far away, how would it be possible for vaccination to be a way out?

They are looking for near 100% adult participation with 25% that are children unvaccinated for a time. It IS a problem wrt the variants that require a higher percentage immune to achieve herd immunity. Since we have already reached the point where b.1.1.7 is the dominant strain in the US, we are effectively past the point we can actually reach herd immunity by vaccination alone without vaccinating children as well. Which means we will need to continue to wear masks indoors for quite a while, and we are probably not looking at safely reopening the schools without consequences until the children are vaccinated as well.

As long as the sorts of misinformation we see constantly communicated here is believed by some non-trivial percentage of the population, we will continue to live with the deaths and/or the masks and/or the various distancing restrictions. We can make short work of it or live with it for years. So encourage your friends to get vaccinated, and maybe even speak up when you hear people encouraging the foolishness that is keeping us locked into this nightmare.

[seanD]

MM was responding to current data on COVID-19 fatalities.

I can read the post. He was referring to long term effects.

[seanD]

My post that you dismissed as "speculative fearmongering" was related to the fact that we do not yet know what long-term side effects could be associated with the China flu vaccine. It had nothing to do with the post you linked to here.

And you wonder why I call you "Ignorant Roy".

Now we know why he edited (censored) all of your your post in his response, apparently so he could make up something you said that you didn't say. How weird.

[Juvenal]

Wicked headache, lasting until now - sore arm and some chills last night. Not bad though. I hear the second shot is worse. Better than dying from COVID which I almost did in November...

Most folks tell me their second shot was worse, so I was dreading it. No kidding, the second dose was rough, but the first was bad enough to make the second feel like a cake-walk. My chair had her second dose on Monday, and she was out of it for two days, and still isn't 100 percent. For me, the nasty bits were done inside 24 hrs.

[Juvenal]

As I said...

Source: Fauci says new Covid-19 cases are at a disturbing level as the US is primed for a surge

he number of new Covid-19 cases has plateaued at a "disturbingly high level," and the US is at risk from a new surge, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned on Wednesday.

Although off the highs of earlier this year, there were still more than 61,000 new cases reported on Wednesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. And the lack of continued significant decreases in infections is a concern, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told CNN's Anderson Cooper, particularly given the spread of variants.

"It's almost a race between getting people vaccinated and this surge that seems to want to increase," Fauci said, noting Europe is experiencing a spike much like the one experts worry about for the US.

The US is vaccinating people quickly, with just over 33% of the population -- more than 109 million people -- having received at least one dose of the vaccine and all 50 states committed to opening vaccinations to all adults by April 19.

Those vaccines may be behind the decrease in Covid-19 fatalities, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Wednesday.But the pace of getting vaccines into the arms of Americans will need to keep increasing now that the virus variant first identified in the United Kingdom, known to be more transmissible and believed to be more deadly, is the most common strain in the US, Walensky said.

To fight the variant, Fauci urged Americans to get vaccinated and stick to preventative measures."Hang in there a bit longer," he said. "Now is not the time, as I've said so many times, to declare victory prematurely."

fb2d92ff-723e-4baa-978c-34694276ae87.jpg

Source

© Copyright Original Source

Predicting that Fauci will do a 180 is kind of like predicting that water is et.

2021-04-08_18-09-28.jpg

There were two charts in the CNN story: new deaths and new cases, only one of which was included above.

The reader will note that Fauci was speaking of new cases, while the response focused on new deaths, a related but lagging indicator. Though obviously important in its own right, it should be noted that in speaking of new cases, Fauci was accurately describing the data. New cases have indeed plateaued at a disturbingly high level, and there does seem to be a race between vaccinations and whatever has stopped the decline.

The larger worry is about more virulent strains. The rate of introduction of new strains is a function of the number of new cases. So long as new cases remain high, the risk of new variants will also remain high. For yourselves and your vulnerable family members and members of your community, and to reduce the risk of more virulent strains, please consider vaccination at your earliest opportunity.

[Juvenal]

... Which means we will need to continue to wear masks indoors for quite a while, and we are probably not looking at safely reopening the schools without consequences until the children are vaccinated as well.

Thank you for the improved tone. I believe it will prove helpful.

Changes in official public health advisories must wait for data. Public health officials are quite rightly constrained by the need to err on the side of caution. But common sense says some of the current masking advice will be changing. With or without full immunity, there is a reasonable chance that the fully vaccinated, even if infected, will not be carrying a sufficient viral load to prove infectious themselves, and the more so if the particular vaccine has a higher efficacy. The mRNA vaccines in particular are likely, in my view, to suppress viral loading sufficiently to forgo the need to mask, even indoors for extended periods.

That said ....

Accumulating data suggest widespread masking has resulted in propitious decreases in the common flu this season. In much of Asia, people mask in flu season out of common politeness. I personally intend to mask up indoors during flu seasons going forward.

Because it works.

[Juvenal]

The reader will note that Fauci was speaking of new cases, while the response focused on new deaths, a related but lagging indicator. Though [the new deaths statistic is] obviously important in its own right, it should be noted that in speaking of new cases, Fauci was accurately describing the data. New cases have indeed plateaued at a disturbingly high level, and there does seem to be a race between vaccinations and whatever has stopped the decline.

The larger worry is about more virulent strains. The rate of introduction of new strains is a function of the number of new cases. So long as new cases remain high, the risk of new variants will also remain high. For yourselves and your vulnerable family members and members of your community, and to reduce the risk of more virulent strains, please consider vaccination at your earliest opportunity.

Too late to edit (unless a mod would be so kind).

[seer]

Most folks tell me their second shot was worse, so I was dreading it. No kidding, the second dose was rough, but the first was bad enough to make the second feel like a cake-walk. My chair had her second dose on Monday, and she was out of it for two days, and still isn't 100 percent. For me, the nasty bits were done inside 24 hrs.

I spoke too soon, it is kicking my butt right now - 101 fever, bone racking chills, everything hurts. I really don't know if I'm going to get the second shot...

[Catholicity]

They are looking for near 100% adult participation with 25% that are children unvaccinated for a time. It IS a problem wrt the variants that require a higher percentage immune to achieve herd immunity. Since we have already reached the point where b.1.1.7 is the dominant strain in the US, we are effectively past the point we can actually reach herd immunity by vaccination alone without vaccinating children as well. Which means we will need to continue to wear masks indoors for quite a while, and we are probably not looking at safely reopening the schools without consequences until the children are vaccinated as well.

As long as the sorts of misinformation we see constantly communicated here is believed by some non-trivial percentage of the population, we will continue to live with the deaths and/or the masks and/or the various distancing restrictions. We can make short work of it or live with it for years. So encourage your friends to get vaccinated, and maybe even speak up when you hear people encouraging the foolishness that is keeping us locked into this nightmare.

Well that will keep my children out of school. The foolishness on the left prevents disabled children from having an equal education as guaranteed by a section 504. The government is a crap ton of liars. The whole situation has been mishandled from the start. I don’t know where you get 100 percent but herd immunity happens at 70-80 percent. The vaccine is protective against variants as well. I complete my vaccine a
series next week. And frankly I don’t care after that. We as a human race are eventually going to have stronger immunity anyway.

[Cow Poke]

I spoke too soon, it is kicking my butt right now - 101 fever, bone racking chills, everything hurts. I really don't know if I'm going to get the second shot...

So sorry!

[Juvenal]

I spoke too soon, it is kicking my butt right now - 101 fever, bone racking chills, everything hurts. I really don't know if I'm going to get the second shot...

So sorry to hear that. We may disagree on politics and religion, but for me at least, those are minor differences in comparison to human griefs. So get better soon, brother!

I felt the same way about the doing the second shot while suffering from my first. But ya know, after the reaction went away, and I had a few weeks to consider, it was • Edited by a Moderator •, halfway home isn't the right time to turn back. Damn the torpedoes ... I suspect a really severe immune response from the first shot might mean there's that much less kick left in the mule.

Moderated By: QuantaFille

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[KingsGambit]

If the plan is predicated on 99% of the adult population vaccinating then we might as well give up. That's as likely as abstinence only education being 100% effective.

[oxmixmudd]

Well that will keep my children out of school. The foolishness on the left prevents disabled children from having an equal education as guaranteed by a section 504. The government is a crap ton of liars. The whole situation has been mishandled from the start. I don’t know where you get 100 percent but herd immunity happens at 70-80 percent. The vaccine is protective against variants as well. I complete my vaccine a
series next week. And frankly I don’t care after that. We as a human race are eventually going to have stronger immunity anyway.

75%-80% is herd immunity for the normal covid, but kids that are not getting vaccinated are 20 to 25% of the population. So to see 75% of the entire population (adults and kids) vaccinated when none of the kids are, almost all the adults need to get the vaccine.

The vaccine protects against variants, but because they spread more easily a higher percentage vaccinated is required for herd immunity. Those of us vaccinated don't have too many worries, but the virus will still be spreading in the unvaccinated community until we start vaccinating kids or unless we can add to the protection of the vaccine some additional isolating elements.

Exactly how much extra is necessary to stop the variants from spreading is a bit uncertain right now. I doubt with everyone vaccinated it will need to be as draconian a situation as what we have been dealing with over the past year.