Have any of you gotten a vaccine?

[Juvenal]

IIRC Fauci has also downplayed the concerns over a fourth wave.

At least this week.

2021-04-07_13-29-05.jpg

The above chart is updated every day in front of the paywall.

Immediately after the election, the case counts plummeted:

Weekly averages
1/8: 259,616
2/21: 66,397

Keep in mind that was without any meaningful benefits from vaccination, which was relatively reassuring.

Max summer peak:
7/25: 66,784

The primary factor is the number of contacts with infected persons. With less infected persons, the decline should have continued, and it didn't. Since then, we've been holding level at around the max summer peak. That will change. Viral numbers are exponentials, they either grow or decay exponentially. One of those things will happen.

Large scale vaccinations began in February, and have been accelerating since then. That's got to provide additional downward pressure, though clearly not enough. Yet. The combination of vaccinated and attack rate has to grow to something between 70 and 90 percent to achieve herd immunity. Trends suggest we will reach that level by July.

So yes, there's room for a fourth wave, but it's not a lot of room, and it's got a closing window.

I appeal to all to do their part in making sure it's not one of their relatives that's the last to die from Covid-19.

[Juvenal]

Got my first shot today, in line with all races, black, white, brown. About 30 people - and they required a picture ID. Nazis! And everyone had one....

Good for you! Please share any adverse reactions and how long they continue.

[seanD]

2021-04-07_13-29-05.jpg

The above chart is updated every day in front of the paywall.

Immediately after the election, the case counts plummeted:

Weekly averages
1/8: 259,616
2/21: 66,397

Keep in mind that was without any meaningful benefits from vaccination, which was relatively reassuring.

Max summer peak:
7/25: 66,784

The primary factor is the number of contacts with infected persons. With less infected persons, the decline should have continued, and it didn't. Since then, we've been holding level at around the max summer peak. That will change. Viral numbers are exponentials, they either grow or decay exponentially. One of those things will happen.

Large scale vaccinations began in February, and have been accelerating since then. That's got to provide additional downward pressure, though clearly not enough. Yet. The combination of vaccinated and attack rate has to grow to something between 70 and 90 percent to achieve herd immunity. Trends suggest we will reach that level by July.

So yes, there's room for a fourth wave, but it's not a lot of room, and it's got a closing window.

I appeal to all to do their part in making sure it's not one of their relatives that's the last to die from Covid-19.

Explain to me how covid rates declined in mid January so sharply when vaccines weren't being distributed nearly as much then as they are now, yet covid rates are steadily climbing again. That makes no sense to me.

[Stoic]

Explain to me how covid rates declined in mid January so sharply when vaccines weren't being distributed nearly as much then as they are now, yet covid rates are steadily climbing again. That makes no sense to me.

The decline in January was probably due to people ending their holiday travelling and visiting.

[oxmixmudd]

Explain to me how covid rates declined in mid January so sharply when vaccines weren't being distributed nearly as much then as they are now, yet covid rates are steadily climbing again. That makes no sense to me.

New cases are on the upswing now in some places due to the expanding prevalence of b.1.1.7, which is more contagious and appears to be more virulent, and more likely to affect people at a younger age ... the set that is currently the most unvaccinated. Latest news it is the dominant strain in the US now:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cd...-us-2021-04-07

The current vaccines protect for it, but it is harder to contain in unvaccinated populations. Mask wearing etc more important where contact with unvaccinated persons is likely.

[seanD]

The decline in January was probably due to people ending their holiday travelling and visiting.

In mid January? And from what I understand travel was significantly down last year.

[Stoic]

Three weeks ago, everybody was getting the Pfizer vaccine at my site. This time around, only second dosers could get Pfizer. Everyone else was getting J&J. This is bothering me.

At 95 percent efficacy, Pfizer doesn't just offer protection, it puts a real crimp on the reproduction number. But according to the CDC ...

Information on how well the vaccine works

• The J&J/Janssen vaccine was 66.3% effective in clinical trials (efficacy) at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people who had no evidence of prior infection 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine. People had the most protection 2 weeks after getting vaccinated.
• The vaccine had high efficacy at preventing hospitalization and death in people who did get sick. No one who got COVID-19 at least 4 weeks after receiving the J&J/Janssen vaccine had to be hospitalized.
• Early evidence suggests that the J&J/Janssen vaccine might provide protection against asymptomatic infection, which is when a person is infected by the virus that causes COVID-19 but does not get sick.
• CDC will continue to provide updates as we learn more about how well the J&J/Janssen vaccine works in real-world conditions.

66.3 percent is break-even for a reproduction number of 2.96. The variants are almost certainly more virulent than that, and the more virulent strains always win. If the entire country got the J&J vaccine, we still wouldn't achieve herd immunity.

J&J plus masking plus social distancing ... yeah, that'd work.

I don't see that happening.

You can't really say that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more effective than the J&J vaccine, since they weren't tested at the same time, and the virus has been getting more infectious over time.

At this point, the number of people vaccinated is much more important than which vaccines they got.

[Cow Poke]

Our Vaccination location is barely staying busy now -- they had been doing over 4,000 vaccinations a day, and it's open now to pretty much anybody who drives up.

[Bill the Cat]

I woke up with more pain in my arm, fuzzy head, balance issues ... pretty much the same reactions I got from the first dose, though slightly less severe. Unlike the first dose, I "could" teach like this. But I still wouldn't, because anything less than 100 percent cuts into my patience and my corrections become sharper. Can't have that when I'm teaching remote.

My coworker got his second shot yesterday and complained of similar issues as you have. Seems to be a pretty common occurrence. I just read that Europe has tentatively linked some clotting issues with the AZ shots.

[Stoic]

In mid January? And from what I understand travel was significantly down last year.

There's a delay between when someone is exposed, and when they get symptoms. There are further delays for getting tested, and for the results being reported. (It's also possible that people who got exposed during the holidays then spread the disease among members of their households, though I don't know how much effect that had on the timing of the peak.)

Travel was down from the previous year, but that doesn't mean there wasn't a lot of it. And some people wouldn't have to travel far to have a holiday gathering.

[Juvenal]

My coworker got his second shot yesterday and complained of similar issues as you have. Seems to be a pretty common occurrence. I just read that Europe has tentatively linked some clotting issues with the AZ shots.

It's been one thing after another with the AZ vaccine.

https://theologyweb.com/campus/forum...ca-makes-three

[Juvenal]

Our Vaccination location is barely staying busy now -- they had been doing over 4,000 vaccinations a day, and it's open now to pretty much anybody who drives up.

This was a FEMA site, manned by regular Army. We were guided through serpentine loops around the parking lots, probably a good 40 minutes before we got to park. The lines were another 20 minutes I guess before we got the doses. The waiting room after the doses held about a couple hundred of us, judging by eye. Turning over twice an hour ... do the math. I got my first dose the day after they opened the site for walk-ins. It was a lot busier this time.

[Juvenal]

Explain to me how covid rates declined in mid January so sharply when vaccines weren't being distributed nearly as much then as they are now, yet covid rates are steadily climbing again. That makes no sense to me.

Looks like it's due to B.1.1.7.

2021-04-07_18-46-35.jpg

[NorrinRadd]

I haven't totally ruled out getting a vax -- it would be the first one of any kind I've had in at least 40 years -- but the more the haranguing and attempts at coercion, the less likely I'll do it.

Certainly not happening any time in the next few weeks.

[KingsGambit]

The HR director at my workplace sent out an email stating that if we do not feel well after a vaccination, we are to call in.

I did call in after my first shot due to migraines preventing me from sleeping. The other day, I was informed that my call-in had been registered as an "attendance event", and if I call in after my second shot, it will be a second event which begins to escalate the process toward disciplinary action. That seems rotten given the seemingly clear directive from HR. (I attempted to pre-emptively take a sick day for my second shot next week but was denied due to insufficient staffing levels, not a surprise because everybody under the sun tries to take Saturdays off.)