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Let's Talk About Them "Jobs" Numbers

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  • Let's Talk About Them "Jobs" Numbers

    The headline is U.S. creates 151,000 jobs in August; unemployment 4.9%

    Yet the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the "Labor Force Participation Rate" has decreased from 66% in 2006 to 62.8% last week.

    jobs.gif

    How is that GOOD news? And when did we start "counting" differently to drop people from the "jobless" rate because they've stopped looking for work?

    And with all this bragging about the Obama Administration "creating" (which they don't do) ZILLIONS AND ZILLIONS (slight exaggeration) of jobs, why is the labor participation rate DECREASING?

    Source: Investopedia

    Participation Rate Vs. Unemployment Rate

    A citizen is classified as a member of the labor force if he has a job or is actively looking for a job. The participation rate is the percentage of adult Americans, excluding those incarcerated or otherwise institutionalized, who are members of the labor force. The 21st century has seen a steady decline in labor force participation. In 2000, it was 67%; by 2013, it had fallen to 63%.

    Many economist argue the labor force decline is the result of low-skilled workers losing their jobs to outsourcing or automation, having no success finding new employment and therefore dropping out of the labor force entirely. For this reason, they feel the participation rate is a more accurate measure of the state of the job market than the unemployment rate, which only considers those in the labor force. An unemployment rate of 5% means only 5 out of 100 workers in the labor force are without jobs, but it does not consider those unemployed workers who have given up looking altogether, even though they want to work.

    © Copyright Original Source

    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

  • #2
    Source: USNews

    Where Are All the Workers?

    The U.S. economy has created 11.5 million new jobs during the last 57 consecutive months of domestic labor force expansion. And there were nearly 5.4 million open jobs at the end of May – more than twice as many vacancies as there were six years ago.

    And yet Americans are actually trickling out of work at an alarming rate. The country's labor force participation rate – which measures the share of Americans at least 16 years old who are either employed or actively looking for work – dipped last month to a 38-year low, clocking in at an underwhelming 62.6 percent.

    Unemployed individuals who haven't actively looked for a job in the last four weeks, for any number of reasons, actually slip away from the Labor Department's unemployment calculations. So although the unemployment rate ticked down to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent in June, that number didn't do justice to the 640,000 individuals who exited the labor market last month and the nearly 94 million people who were neither employed nor looking for work.

    © Copyright Original Source

    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #3
      It does seem to be finally trending in the right direction. Is there an age cap on who gets included?
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      • #4
        Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        The headline is U.S. creates 151,000 jobs in August; unemployment 4.9%

        Yet the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the "Labor Force Participation Rate" has decreased from 66% in 2006 to 62.8% last week.

        [ATTACH=CONFIG]18263[/ATTACH]

        How is that GOOD news? And when did we start "counting" differently to drop people from the "jobless" rate because they've stopped looking for work?

        And with all this bragging about the Obama Administration "creating" (which they don't do) ZILLIONS AND ZILLIONS (slight exaggeration) of jobs, why is the labor participation rate DECREASING?

        Source: Investopedia

        Participation Rate Vs. Unemployment Rate

        A citizen is classified as a member of the labor force if he has a job or is actively looking for a job. The participation rate is the percentage of adult Americans, excluding those incarcerated or otherwise institutionalized, who are members of the labor force. The 21st century has seen a steady decline in labor force participation. In 2000, it was 67%; by 2013, it had fallen to 63%.

        Many economist argue the labor force decline is the result of low-skilled workers losing their jobs to outsourcing or automation, having no success finding new employment and therefore dropping out of the labor force entirely. For this reason, they feel the participation rate is a more accurate measure of the state of the job market than the unemployment rate, which only considers those in the labor force. An unemployment rate of 5% means only 5 out of 100 workers in the labor force are without jobs, but it does not consider those unemployed workers who have given up looking altogether, even though they want to work.

        © Copyright Original Source

        Interesting. If the participation rate is declining due to outsourcing or automation, then you can't really blame Obama, at least not on the automation part. That would happen under any president.

        I personally think this declining participation rate might only get worse. Just think of what having feasible, fully automated driving cars will do to the economy. Millions of taxi and limo drivers, truck drivers, bus drivers, and chauffeurs will be permanently out of work. Any many will not be able to find a new job.
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        If your whole worldview rests on a particular claim being true, you damn well better have evidence for it. You should have tons of evidence.

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        • #5
          um... they all RETIRED! yeah. that's the ticket.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Sparko View Post
            um... they all RETIRED! yeah. that's the ticket.
            Yeah, that's actually been tried as a 'real' reason, except the data specifically refers to "working age" men (and, elsewhere, persons).
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
              Yeah, that's actually been tried as a 'real' reason, except the data specifically refers to "working age" men (and, elsewhere, persons).
              They were so successful that they retired EARLY!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
                It does seem to be finally trending in the right direction. Is there an age cap on who gets included?
                I think it looks more like it's leveling off.... need more months to see.
                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                Comment


                • #9
                  We'd really need more information to make an opinion either way. Is there anything to try to suggest why participation rate has dropped?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by EvoUK View Post
                    We'd really need more information to make an opinion either way. Is there anything to try to suggest why participation rate has dropped?
                    people can't find a job, and eventually have to go on welfare and they give up. No jobs to get even if you are looking, so why look? Usually in areas like rural towns that have no industries left because the goobermint wants to "help americans" by shutting down industries like coal mining. No coal mines, no jobs, no support businesses because there are no coal miners, so even less jobs. Entire towns can end up bankrupt and jobless.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by EvoUK View Post
                      We'd really need more information to make an opinion either way. Is there anything to try to suggest why participation rate has dropped?
                      I think an argument is made relating the drastic increase in welfare recipients, the extension of unemployment benefits, and other government "safety nets" that make it less desirable for young working age persons to actually get out and get employed. Some, of course, are discouraged because they come out of college very debt-heavy, and can't find a job 'worthy' of a degree'd person.

                      Just speculation.
                      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        people can't find a job, and eventually have to go on welfare and they give up. No jobs to get even if you are looking, so why look? Usually in areas like rural towns that have no industries left because the goobermint wants to "help americans" by shutting down industries like coal mining. No coal mines, no jobs, no support businesses because there are no coal miners, so even less jobs. Entire towns can end up bankrupt and jobless.
                        If the economy picks up significantly after Obama is gone we can expect to see a rise in unemployment rates as people start returning to the labor force. Depending on who is president if this happens will color how the media covers this.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          If the economy picks up significantly after Obama is gone we can expect to see a rise in unemployment rates as people start returning to the labor force. Depending on who is president if this happens will color how the media covers this.
                          Like so many 'government solutions', if the metrics don't show the program to be a success, change the metrics!
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I think this is where Trump has an advantage and can exploit it. He is a successful businessman and he knows how to make jobs. He needs to emphasize that because that is what people need.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              I think this is where Trump has an advantage and can exploit it. He is a successful businessman and he knows how to make jobs. He needs to emphasize that because that is what people need.
                              I just wish he could do a better job explaining to African Americans that, under Clinton, they are disproportionately WORSE off than whites, and worse off than they were before Obama.
                              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                              Comment

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