Originally posted by KingsGambit
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Do Oxford/AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine results stand up to scrutiny?
.
Is there is a “but”?
There is. Because the dosing error violated the trial’s protocol, there are reasons to doubt the overall numbers. The details are mathematically difficult, but boil down to the fact that a much smaller number of people received the half-dose than the full dose, which risks making the sample sizes too small and “underpowering” the trial.
Are there any other concerns?
There have been reports, now confirmed by AstraZeneca, that the people in the half-dose subgroup were younger on average than the participants as a whole, which suggests that the 90 per cent figure may prove too high. Vaccines generally work better in younger people, says Hunter.
So should we disregard this vaccine trial?
“Absolutely not,” says Hunter. Even if the vaccine is really only 62 per cent effective, that is higher than the 50 per cent threshold deemed acceptable by the World Health Organization and the US Food and Drug Administration. If this result had come out three weeks earlier we would have been over the moon, says Hunter. It is just that we have been spoiled by good news from elsewhere, with several other vaccine trials reporting efficacy figures of 90 per cent or more.
There is. Because the dosing error violated the trial’s protocol, there are reasons to doubt the overall numbers. The details are mathematically difficult, but boil down to the fact that a much smaller number of people received the half-dose than the full dose, which risks making the sample sizes too small and “underpowering” the trial.
Are there any other concerns?
There have been reports, now confirmed by AstraZeneca, that the people in the half-dose subgroup were younger on average than the participants as a whole, which suggests that the 90 per cent figure may prove too high. Vaccines generally work better in younger people, says Hunter.
So should we disregard this vaccine trial?
“Absolutely not,” says Hunter. Even if the vaccine is really only 62 per cent effective, that is higher than the 50 per cent threshold deemed acceptable by the World Health Organization and the US Food and Drug Administration. If this result had come out three weeks earlier we would have been over the moon, says Hunter. It is just that we have been spoiled by good news from elsewhere, with several other vaccine trials reporting efficacy figures of 90 per cent or more.
I'm gonna pass on this one.
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