Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

Fivethirtyeight: current House/Senate/Presidential probabilities

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Fivethirtyeight: current House/Senate/Presidential probabilities

    The current (Thursday, Oct 29) probabilities from the FIVETHIRTYEIGHT website on the Senate, House, and Presidential races:

    97% - probability Democrats will keep the House
    88% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
    75% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate


    The latest predictions I have seen by Trump on the above three races:

    "After the election, we'll get the best stimulus package you've ever seen, because I think we're going to take back the House." - October 27

    "I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough, There are a couple senators I can't really get involved in. I just can't do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can't help some of them. I don't want to help some of them." - Trump predicting the GOP will quite possibly lose the Senate (just prior to 2nd presidential debate on October 22)

    "The only way we're going to lose this election is if this election is rigged." - August 18 (just one example of the many occasions Trump talks about a "rigged election")

    ***********************

    Trump has used his "rigged election" claim to justify his refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses. In response to Trump's statement, the Senate passed the following resolution with a vote of 100-to-0:

    "WHEREAS any disruption occasioned by the transfer of the executive power could produce results detrimental to the safety and well-being of the United States and its people... be it RESOLVED That the Senate (1) reaffirms its commitment to the orderly and peaceful transfer of power called for in the Constitution of the United States; and (2) intends that there should be no disruptions by the President or any person in power to overturn the will of the people of the United States."

    In response to Trump's refusal to promise a peaceful transition of power, the US military's most senior general (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley) sent a letter of reassurance to the House. The letter reads, in part:

    "The Constitution and laws of the US and the states establish procedures for carrying out elections, and for resolving disputes over the outcome of elections... I do not see the US military as part of this process,.. In the event of a dispute over some aspect of the elections, by law U.S. courts and the U.S. Congress are required to resolve any disputes, not the U.S. Military,"
    "The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." - P. J. O'Rourke

  • #2
    Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
    The current (Thursday, Oct 29) probabilities from the FIVETHIRTYEIGHT website on the Senate, House, and Presidential races:

    97% - probability Democrats will keep the House
    88% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
    75% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate

    FIVETHIRTYEIGHT just updated their statistics (Thursday Oct 29, 10:30 AM Eastern)

    98% - probability Democrats will keep the House
    89% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
    76% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate
    "The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." - P. J. O'Rourke

    Comment


    • #3
      I don't put much stock in polls. The last election they were all wrong.

      But I can accept the election either way it goes. If Biden wins, I won't be crying, or rioting in the street, or whining about how Biden isn't my President. And I am pretty sure that will be the reaction of most Conservatives. I can't say the same about the liberals if Trump wins again. I think they will lose their minds.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post

        FIVETHIRTYEIGHT just updated their statistics (Thursday Oct 29, 10:30 AM Eastern)

        98% - probability Democrats will keep the House
        89% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
        76% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate
        If somebody were to offer me 9-1 on Trump winning the election, I would very eagerly bet a large sum. Giving an 89% probability in a two-horse race is absurd.

        And I'll go on record, like I did in 2016, as predicting that Trump will win the election.
        Last edited by Electric Skeptic; 10-30-2020, 04:10 PM.
        America - too good to let the conservatives drag it back to 1950.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
          FIVETHIRTYEIGHT just updated their statistics (Thursday Oct 29, 10:30 AM Eastern)

          98% - probability Democrats will keep the House
          89% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
          76% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate
          Revised statistics for Friday Oct 30, 10 PM Eastern

          98% - probability Democrats will keep the House
          90% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
          78% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate
          "The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." - P. J. O'Rourke

          Comment


          • #6
            Yeah, I don't go in for these stats either. They likely show the popular vote or something, but once you've secured the EC vote in that state any more votes are pointless.

            The best way for Trump to win is to say he's definitely going to lose so ppl don't bother queueing up for hours (queue times in the US is still a shameful atrocity). The main way republicans lose is to increase the turnout, as they're a minority party.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              I don't put much stock in polls. The last election they were all wrong.

              But I can accept the election either way it goes. If Biden wins, I won't be crying, or rioting in the street, or whining about how Biden isn't my President. And I am pretty sure that will be the reaction of most Conservatives. I can't say the same about the liberals if Trump wins again. I think they will lose their minds.
              republicanriotmeme.jpg

              I'm always still in trouble again

              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

              Comment

              Related Threads

              Collapse

              Topics Statistics Last Post
              Started by Starlight, Yesterday, 11:51 PM
              2 responses
              11 views
              0 likes
              Last Post LiconaFan97  
              Started by Ronson, Yesterday, 07:32 PM
              9 responses
              42 views
              0 likes
              Last Post Terraceth  
              Started by shunyadragon, Yesterday, 06:22 PM
              3 responses
              33 views
              1 like
              Last Post shunyadragon  
              Started by firstfloor, Yesterday, 11:01 AM
              24 responses
              102 views
              1 like
              Last Post Ronson
              by Ronson
               
              Started by Ronson, Yesterday, 09:42 AM
              15 responses
              64 views
              1 like
              Last Post Ronson
              by Ronson
               
              Working...
              X