The current (Thursday, Oct 29) probabilities from the FIVETHIRTYEIGHT website on the Senate, House, and Presidential races:
97% - probability Democrats will keep the House
88% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
75% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate
The latest predictions I have seen by Trump on the above three races:
"After the election, we'll get the best stimulus package you've ever seen, because I think we're going to take back the House." - October 27
"I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough, There are a couple senators I can't really get involved in. I just can't do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can't help some of them. I don't want to help some of them." - Trump predicting the GOP will quite possibly lose the Senate (just prior to 2nd presidential debate on October 22)
"The only way we're going to lose this election is if this election is rigged." - August 18 (just one example of the many occasions Trump talks about a "rigged election")
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Trump has used his "rigged election" claim to justify his refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses. In response to Trump's statement, the Senate passed the following resolution with a vote of 100-to-0:
"WHEREAS any disruption occasioned by the transfer of the executive power could produce results detrimental to the safety and well-being of the United States and its people... be it RESOLVED That the Senate (1) reaffirms its commitment to the orderly and peaceful transfer of power called for in the Constitution of the United States; and (2) intends that there should be no disruptions by the President or any person in power to overturn the will of the people of the United States."
In response to Trump's refusal to promise a peaceful transition of power, the US military's most senior general (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley) sent a letter of reassurance to the House. The letter reads, in part:
"The Constitution and laws of the US and the states establish procedures for carrying out elections, and for resolving disputes over the outcome of elections... I do not see the US military as part of this process,.. In the event of a dispute over some aspect of the elections, by law U.S. courts and the U.S. Congress are required to resolve any disputes, not the U.S. Military,"
97% - probability Democrats will keep the House
88% - probability Biden will win the Presidency
75% - probability Democrats will retake the Senate
The latest predictions I have seen by Trump on the above three races:
"After the election, we'll get the best stimulus package you've ever seen, because I think we're going to take back the House." - October 27
"I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough, There are a couple senators I can't really get involved in. I just can't do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can't help some of them. I don't want to help some of them." - Trump predicting the GOP will quite possibly lose the Senate (just prior to 2nd presidential debate on October 22)
"The only way we're going to lose this election is if this election is rigged." - August 18 (just one example of the many occasions Trump talks about a "rigged election")
***********************
Trump has used his "rigged election" claim to justify his refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses. In response to Trump's statement, the Senate passed the following resolution with a vote of 100-to-0:
"WHEREAS any disruption occasioned by the transfer of the executive power could produce results detrimental to the safety and well-being of the United States and its people... be it RESOLVED That the Senate (1) reaffirms its commitment to the orderly and peaceful transfer of power called for in the Constitution of the United States; and (2) intends that there should be no disruptions by the President or any person in power to overturn the will of the people of the United States."
In response to Trump's refusal to promise a peaceful transition of power, the US military's most senior general (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley) sent a letter of reassurance to the House. The letter reads, in part:
"The Constitution and laws of the US and the states establish procedures for carrying out elections, and for resolving disputes over the outcome of elections... I do not see the US military as part of this process,.. In the event of a dispute over some aspect of the elections, by law U.S. courts and the U.S. Congress are required to resolve any disputes, not the U.S. Military,"
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