I've been following the polls very closely for over two months, and it's clear that Trump's best shot at victory is to win Pennsylvania. Apparently, Trump's advisors have reached the same conclusion, since Trump held three rallies in Pennsylvania yesterday.
If Trump wins all of the following states, he will have 272 electoral college votes, or 2 more votes than the 270 needed for victory. Trump is behind in the polls in most of these states, so clearly his victory is not assured. I expect Florida, North Carolina, and probably Texas to announce the state victor on election night, so if any of the three states go Democrat, then Trump will almost certainly have lost the election.
+5 Biden - Pennsylvania
+3 Biden - North Carolina
+3 Biden - Arizona
+2 Biden - Florida
+1 Biden - Georgia
+1 Trump - Texas
+2 Trump - Ohio
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It makes a lot of sense for Trump to concentrate on Pennsylvania, because from where I sit winning Pennsylvania is essential for Trump to be elected to a second term. What I don't understand is why he is still doing rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin. He is even holding rallies in Nebraska District 2 and Maine District 2 which only have a single electoral vote each.
The situation in Wisconsin is typical of Trump's current strategy. He held a rally there yesterday, where he argued that he deserved a second term because he had wrestled coronavirus to the ground (unfortunately for Trump, coronavirus is currently making a dramatic resurgence in Wisconsin - yesterday, Wisconsin had 5000 new cases and 64 deaths). The situation is so bad that Wisconsin has been forced to open field hospitals.
So, do the citizens of Wisconsin believe Trump's lies about coronavirus? An ABC/Washington Post poll, which was released today and is rated A+ by the polling website FIVETHIRTYEIGHT, gives Biden an astonishing +17 lead in Wisconsin:
57% - Biden
40 % - Trump
If Trump really wants a second term, then he needs to discard his fantasy that Wisconsin and Michigan are still within reach for him, and put all of his effort into winning Pennsylvania.
If Trump wins all of the following states, he will have 272 electoral college votes, or 2 more votes than the 270 needed for victory. Trump is behind in the polls in most of these states, so clearly his victory is not assured. I expect Florida, North Carolina, and probably Texas to announce the state victor on election night, so if any of the three states go Democrat, then Trump will almost certainly have lost the election.
+5 Biden - Pennsylvania
+3 Biden - North Carolina
+3 Biden - Arizona
+2 Biden - Florida
+1 Biden - Georgia
+1 Trump - Texas
+2 Trump - Ohio
**********************************
It makes a lot of sense for Trump to concentrate on Pennsylvania, because from where I sit winning Pennsylvania is essential for Trump to be elected to a second term. What I don't understand is why he is still doing rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin. He is even holding rallies in Nebraska District 2 and Maine District 2 which only have a single electoral vote each.
The situation in Wisconsin is typical of Trump's current strategy. He held a rally there yesterday, where he argued that he deserved a second term because he had wrestled coronavirus to the ground (unfortunately for Trump, coronavirus is currently making a dramatic resurgence in Wisconsin - yesterday, Wisconsin had 5000 new cases and 64 deaths). The situation is so bad that Wisconsin has been forced to open field hospitals.
So, do the citizens of Wisconsin believe Trump's lies about coronavirus? An ABC/Washington Post poll, which was released today and is rated A+ by the polling website FIVETHIRTYEIGHT, gives Biden an astonishing +17 lead in Wisconsin:
57% - Biden
40 % - Trump
If Trump really wants a second term, then he needs to discard his fantasy that Wisconsin and Michigan are still within reach for him, and put all of his effort into winning Pennsylvania.
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