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Biden now +17 in Wisconsin

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  • Biden now +17 in Wisconsin

    I've been following the polls very closely for over two months, and it's clear that Trump's best shot at victory is to win Pennsylvania. Apparently, Trump's advisors have reached the same conclusion, since Trump held three rallies in Pennsylvania yesterday.

    If Trump wins all of the following states, he will have 272 electoral college votes, or 2 more votes than the 270 needed for victory. Trump is behind in the polls in most of these states, so clearly his victory is not assured. I expect Florida, North Carolina, and probably Texas to announce the state victor on election night, so if any of the three states go Democrat, then Trump will almost certainly have lost the election.

    +5 Biden - Pennsylvania
    +3 Biden - North Carolina
    +3 Biden - Arizona
    +2 Biden - Florida

    +1 Biden - Georgia
    +1 Trump - Texas
    +2 Trump - Ohio


    **********************************

    It makes a lot of sense for Trump to concentrate on Pennsylvania, because from where I sit winning Pennsylvania is essential for Trump to be elected to a second term. What I don't understand is why he is still doing rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin. He is even holding rallies in Nebraska District 2 and Maine District 2 which only have a single electoral vote each.

    The situation in Wisconsin is typical of Trump's current strategy. He held a rally there yesterday, where he argued that he deserved a second term because he had wrestled coronavirus to the ground (unfortunately for Trump, coronavirus is currently making a dramatic resurgence in Wisconsin - yesterday, Wisconsin had 5000 new cases and 64 deaths). The situation is so bad that Wisconsin has been forced to open field hospitals.

    So, do the citizens of Wisconsin believe Trump's lies about coronavirus? An ABC/Washington Post poll, which was released today and is rated A+ by the polling website FIVETHIRTYEIGHT, gives Biden an astonishing +17 lead in Wisconsin:

    57% - Biden
    40 % - Trump


    If Trump really wants a second term, then he needs to discard his fantasy that Wisconsin and Michigan are still within reach for him, and put all of his effort into winning Pennsylvania.
    "The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." - P. J. O'Rourke

  • #2
    If you believe Joe is 17 points ahead in Wisconsin then I have a little bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in purchasing. I'll even throw in a free toll booth, just because I like you.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
      If you believe Joe is 17 points ahead in Wisconsin then I have a little bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in purchasing. I'll even throw in a free toll booth, just because I like you.
      An hour ago, the FIVETHIRTYEIGHT website published a detailed article on that very topic. An interesting read.

      ***********************************

      What to make of that new Wisconsin Poll that has Biden way ahead

      Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country— a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

      https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...den-way-ahead/
      Last edited by Reepicheep; 10-28-2020, 10:35 AM.
      "The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." - P. J. O'Rourke

      Comment


      • #4
        Polls... snicker....
        That's what
        - She

        Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
        - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

        I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
        Stephen R. Donaldson

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post

          An hour ago, the FIVETHIRTYEIGHT website published a detailed article on that very topic. An interesting read.
          Five Thirty Eight has not come close to correctly predicting an election since Obama's 2012 win, so take anything they say with a reasonable degree of skepticism.

          Meanwhile, the most accurate pollsters who correctly predicted Trump's 2016 win over Hillary are showing Wisconsin effectively tied.
          Last edited by Mountain Man; 10-28-2020, 11:07 AM.
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
            Five Thirty Eight has not come close to correctly predicting an election since Obama's 2012 win, so take anything they say with a reasonable degree of skepticism.

            Meanwhile, the most accurate pollsters who correctly predicted Trump's 2016 win over Hillary are showing Wisconsin effectively tied.
            538 gave Trump better odds of winning in 2016 than practically everybody.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
              Polls... snicker....


              One would think people should wait before believing any of these polls until after the actual poll. Shills will always shill I guess

              One side will be big fat liars, or one side will be big fat dreamers. One or the other will happen.

              ​​​​​

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by LiconaFan97 View Post

                538 gave Trump better odds of winning in 2016 than practically everybody.
                Less than 30%, as I recall, when the real odds were much closer than that, so still a pretty lousy prediction.
                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                  Less than 30%, as I recall, when the real odds were much closer than that, so still a pretty lousy prediction.
                  Show your math which justifies this claim. And even if you're correct he was still more right than most.

                  Here is 538 collection of polls. They're clearly not tied.
                  Last edited by LiconaFan97; 10-28-2020, 01:22 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Reepicheep: Who do you plan to vote for Biden or Trump?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                      So, do the citizens of Wisconsin believe Trump's lies about coronavirus? An ABC/Washington Post poll, which was released today and is rated A+ by the polling website FIVETHIRTYEIGHT, gives[B] Biden an astonishing +17 lead in Wisconsin:

                      If Trump really wants a second term, then he needs to discard his fantasy that Wisconsin and Michigan are still within reach for him, and put all of his effort into winning Pennsylvania.
                      Do you really believe for a moment that Biden will beat Trump by anything close to 17 points in Wisconsin?

                      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by LiconaFan97 View Post

                        Show your math which justifies this claim. And even if you're correct he was still more right than most.

                        Here is 538 collection of polls. They're clearly not tied.
                        In this case, "more right than most" still means "very wrong".

                        The Trafalgar Group, who despite only receiving a C- rating from 538 was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016 and correctly predicted a Trump win, is showing Trump and Biden statistically tied in Wisconsin.
                        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                        Than a fool in the eyes of God


                        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by seer View Post

                          Do you really believe for a moment that Biden will beat Trump by anything close to 17 points in Wisconsin?
                          If Trump wins, or even if it's close, there is going to be a pollster reckoning like we've never seen before. They're going to lose all credibility henceforth.
                          "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                            In this case, "more right than most" still means "very wrong".

                            The Trafalgar Group, who despite only receiving a C- rating from 538 was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016 and correctly predicted a Trump win, is showing Trump and Biden statistically tied in Wisconsin.
                            Their most recent polls show Biden up by 2 in Wisconsin.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by LiconaFan97 View Post

                              Their most recent polls show Biden up by 2 in Wisconsin.
                              Not +17, and +2 is still within the margin of error.
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                              Comment

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