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COVID: Trump Crushing It!

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Starlight View Post
    If you google "US covid cases" it shows a little graph and table, and you can order the data by per million population and cases, to see in which states you were most likely to catch Covid if you lived there. Here's the resulting list of the worst states for Covid:


    ByState.PNG

    Am I right in thinking Nevada at #12 is the only Clinton-voting state in the top 19 worst-affected states? And that 18/19 worst-affected states are Trump states? Seems like what you said is false. Leftist states weren't the ones that got ravaged.
    cool, now do deaths (the only numbers that actually matter).

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post

      cool, now do deaths (the only numbers that actually matter).
      That data is completely wrong. I have no clue how he derived at those results.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Starlight View Post
        Am I right in thinking Nevada at #12 is the only Clinton-voting state in the top 19 worst-affected states? And that 18/19 worst-affected states are Trump states? Seems like what you said is false. Leftist states weren't the ones that got ravaged.
        If you sort it by deaths per 1 million people, the blue states look a lot worse. This is because some of the blue states had most of their cases early on, when the case fatality ratio was higher, and the medical facilities in the northeast were so swamped that they were unable to provide decent care for everyone.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by seer View Post
          NYT: Experts Confident Pandemic To Be Over ‘Far Sooner’ Than Expected, Trump Efforts ‘Working With Remarkable Efficiency’

          A new report from The New York Times indicates that experts have “genuine confidence” that the coronavirus pandemic will end “far sooner” than originally expected and that President Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed — the administration’s efforts to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics — has been “working with remarkable efficiency.”

          https://www.dailywire.com/news/nyt-e...ble-efficiency

          https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/h...-optimism.html
          Trump is crushing it and breaking up COVID-19 in little pieces, holding Republican Campaign events and official meetings without masks and social distancing, and passing COVID-19 around so others can pass it around and take it home with his blessings of the gift. .
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post
            cool, now do deaths (the only numbers that actually matter).
            Deaths as a metric tends to lag behind Cases by up to a month or more, so it's not as informative. Also, when we are discussing whether or not a given governor has stopped Covid spreading, the relevant metric is cases not deaths. Given the question was whether blue-state lockdowns have stopped the spread of Covid, the simple answer is that blue-states had significantly fewer cases of covid per capita, so yes, whatever the blue states were doing was stopping the spread of Covid far better than whatever the red states were doing. Differences in death rates are not directly relevant to this.


            Originally posted by seanD View Post
            It would be nice for a link to that source. I was referencing Statista per 100k.
            It would be nice to link it, but google doesn't provide a link it just shows the data and graph. If you follow the instructions I gave of googling US covid cases, google should display it for you. Google agrees with the data you cite with respect to deaths.


            Originally posted by Stoic View Post
            If you sort it by deaths per 1 million people, the blue states look a lot worse. This is because some of the blue states had most of their cases early on, when the case fatality ratio was higher, and the medical facilities in the northeast were so swamped that they were unable to provide decent care for everyone.
            It's true that sorting it by deaths rather than cases makes blue states look worse. It's not clear to me why. Reasons could include:
            - Demographic differences between states (Race, age, wealth)
            - Improved drug treatments
            - Overstressed healthcare system vs healthcare systems that have had time to prepare for this
            - Time of year (People are just heathier in the summer? Or more vitamin D helps their immune system? Or the sunlight is killing the virus in the air and so when they catch it they're getting a lower dose?)
            - Differences in how deaths are being counted (e.g. Trump's people are reporting politically-corrected death figures, and being far more stringent in their criteria with regard to whether someone died 'of covid')
            - Improved protection of retirement homes
            - They are more religious and God protects (or not, for those that die) by letting them catch it and get sick but stopping them actually dying

            In the US, the deaths per cases has changed hugely over time. The new cases per day in June was twice that of April, but the number of deaths that resulted from those cases in June was only about half that of the cases in April. It's not clear to me what's causing this 4x difference over time given it's the same disease and the same population.
            "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
            "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
            "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

            Comment


            • #21
              Searching on this topic, gave me this WaPo article fresh out today, which has every graph you can think of on the subject.

              This graph caught my eye:

              Covid.PNG
              "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
              "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
              "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Starlight View Post

                It would be nice to link it, but google doesn't provide a link it just shows the data and graph. If you follow the instructions I gave of googling US covid cases, google should display it for you. Google agrees with the data you cite with respect to deaths.
                I did use google and it's nothing like the data you displayed, which is why I was wondering where you actually got that screenshot from.



                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                  It's true that sorting it by deaths rather than cases makes blue states look worse. It's not clear to me why. Reasons could include:
                  - Demographic differences between states (Race, age, wealth)
                  - Improved drug treatments
                  - Overstressed healthcare system vs healthcare systems that have had time to prepare for this
                  - Time of year (People are just heathier in the summer? Or more vitamin D helps their immune system? Or the sunlight is killing the virus in the air and so when they catch it they're getting a lower dose?)
                  - Differences in how deaths are being counted (e.g. Trump's people are reporting politically-corrected death figures, and being far more stringent in their criteria with regard to whether someone died 'of covid')
                  - Improved protection of retirement homes
                  - They are more religious and God protects (or not, for those that die) by letting them catch it and get sick but stopping them actually dying

                  In the US, the deaths per cases has changed hugely over time. The new cases per day in June was twice that of April, but the number of deaths that resulted from those cases in June was only about half that of the cases in April. It's not clear to me what's causing this 4x difference over time given it's the same disease and the same population.
                  I think you gave several of the most important reasons: treatments have improved, we are better able to protect vulnerable populations, and health facilities aren't being swamped, due to better testing.

                  One factor that you didn't mention is that most people are wearing masks, so they are less likely to develop serious illness.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by seanD View Post

                    I did use google and it's nothing like the data you displayed, which is why I was wondering where you actually got that screenshot from.


                    You have to click on "Cases" to sort the states by the number of cases.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                      It's true that sorting it by deaths rather than cases makes blue states look worse. It's not clear to me why. [...]
                      You listed a number of plausible explanations, and I'm willing to bet the real answer includes most of them.

                      Another possible factor is that when people travel to this country from abroad, they're more likely to want to land in a blue state first. Why head to Alabama when you've got New York and California to choose from?

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                        You listed a number of plausible explanations, and I'm willing to bet the real answer includes most of them.
                        Thinking further about it, also there will have been changes in how 'cases' are measured. Not everyone who gets it bothers to get tested, especially if it costs them money. At times there have been limits on the number of tests available, etc.

                        Another possible factor is that when people travel to this country from abroad, they're more likely to want to land in a blue state first.
                        It's clear that's why it arrived in Blue states first. International travellers carrying covid went to those and spread it. It only later spread into the Red states from the Blue ones.
                        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Stoic View Post
                          You have to click on "Cases" to sort the states by the number of cases.
                          Exactly.
                          "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                          "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                          "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                            I don't know why anybody is still pretending the WHO is a credible authority when they repeatedly contradict themselves.
                            Saw a bit more of what the WHO guy was saying today. He seemed to be mocking the idea of achieving Herd Immunity through exposure to the disease. He seemed to be an advocate of social distancing and masks.
                            "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                            "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                            "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by seer View Post
                              NYT: Experts Confident Pandemic To Be Over ‘Far Sooner’ Than Expected, Trump Efforts ‘Working With Remarkable Efficiency’

                              A new report from The New York Times indicates that experts have “genuine confidence” that the coronavirus pandemic will end “far sooner” than originally expected and that President Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed — the administration’s efforts to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics — has been “working with remarkable efficiency.”

                              https://www.dailywire.com/news/nyt-e...ble-efficiency

                              https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/h...-optimism.html
                              It will end in November, after the election.

                              I expect liberals will just go hide, but some will keep shouting we are all doomed by the bad orange man and his China Virus defeat.
                              ​​​​​​

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Maranatha View Post
                                It will end in November, after the election.
                                In case anyone's wondering, the president declaring covid-19 a political hoax has had negative consequences.

                                M, the pandemic is real, and political attacks by the president on the science don't make the science political any more than religious attacks on the theory of evolution make the theory of evolution religious. It's a virus, it doesn't care about your politics. It doesn't care about your religion. It's a virus. It doesn't care. Period.

                                It can be measured and investigated like any other disease. It has been. Denying the science of epidemiology is tantamount to denying the theory of gravity. If you behave like it's not real, if you preach that it's not real, it will kill you, and it will kill those close to you.

                                The head of the White House security office is critically ill with Covid-19
                                .
                                The security office head, Crede Bailey, whose office handles a number of duties, including approving certain security clearances, coordinating with the Secret Service and handling credentials for people to be able to come onto the White House grounds, was taken to the hospital in late September, the administration official said.

                                ...

                                On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that Adm. Charles Ray, the vice commandant of the Coast Guard, had tested positive. Admiral Ray also attended the White House reception, Defense Department officials said.

                                Nearly every member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is now in quarantine in their homes or in other locations, officials said, after having contact with people who have tested positive.

                                This is not a time to play politics with science. This is a time to let science guide your politics.

                                Comment

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