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What could falsify anthropogenic global warning (serious posts only)

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Outis View Post
    A valid point. How does one falsify sunrise? I don't think global warming has been established to that level of certainty, but it is more certain than (for instance) quantum gravity or dark energy.
    Asking what would falsify AGW is somewhat akin to asking what would falsify the theory of evolution. In both cases we have now amassed enough positive evidence for the phenomena that no one observation would overturn the scientific consensus. Basically you'd have to show major long term systematic errors in our understanding of a dozen of different scientific disciplines - physics, chemistry, astronomy, meteorology - just to name a few. Not only that but you'd have to explain why the errors all managed to produce the same consilient results across the board.

    When both AGW and evolution were first proposed as hypotheses there were plenty of observations that if made would have falsified them. For AGW finding that temperature increase wasn't correlated with atmospheric GHGs would do it, or finding that humans weren't producing these GHGs. Now with all the supporting evidence they have the job is way tougher. Both hypotheses were quite falsifiable; they just weren't falsified.
    Last edited by HMS_Beagle; 02-16-2014, 01:01 PM. Reason: typo

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    • #32
      Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post
      Asking what would falsify AGW is somewhat akin to asking what would falsify the theory of evolution.
      Pretty much, and the parallel exists. Evolution (the phenomenon, not the theory) is a fact--it happens. The ToE merely offers an explanation for the mechanics. Global warming is also a fact. AGW merely offers an explanation.

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