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Correlation vs Causation

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  • Correlation vs Causation

    A useful resource.

    Next time some-one mistakes correlation for causation, I'll ask them to explain why cutting down on margerine decreases the likelihood of divorce.

    Roy
    Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

    mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

    Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
    Mountain Man: … this is how liberals argue these days, with labels instead of ideas.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Roy View Post
    A useful resource.

    Next time some-one mistakes correlation for causation, I'll ask them to explain why cutting down on margerine decreases the likelihood of divorce.

    Roy
    Like with increased Co2 emissions and AGW?
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by seer View Post
      Like with increased Co2 emissions and AGW?
      No. Not at all like that. The causative links have been identified. See:

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Roy View Post
        A useful resource.

        Next time some-one mistakes correlation for causation, I'll ask them to explain why cutting down on margerine decreases the likelihood of divorce.

        Roy
        That's easy. Margarine is of the devil, and anyone who uses it instead of real butter is just asking for a divorce. Don't you know anything?
        ~Formerly known as Chrawnus~

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by seer View Post
          Like with increased Co2 emissions and AGW?
          No, not only do the temperature increase happen when CO2 increases, but it also lowers when CO2 decreases. Secondly, we have a well-established model of radiation and we know the contents of the atmosphere, since the fifties we've had a good model of a how changes in the CO2 should cause changes in temperature. So a causal relationship has been established.

          Anything else is just causality denial.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by seer View Post
            Like with increased Co2 emissions and AGW?
            Feel free to reviews Mills' methods: http://philosophy.hku.hk/think/sci/mill.php
            "Instead, we argue, it is necessary to shift the debate from the subject under consideration, instead exposing to public scrutiny the tactics they [denialists] employ and identifying them publicly for what they are."

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by seer View Post
              Like with increased Co2 emissions and AGW?
              Not exactly.


              We know that human activity does cause carbon dioxide emission and that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. So the feeling is that any temperature increase should be related to human activity. Hence an awful lot is invested in:-


              1) showing this to be the case, or otherwise, and

              2) understanding the underlying mechanism, should it be the case.


              That is, it's a lot more that correlation = causation.


              It might also be that consumption of margarine does cause divorce. That is, the correlation is real because of an actual underlying mechanism. If someone thinks this to be the case, then the aim would be for them to demonstrate the reality of that underlying mechanism.


              Most folk accept that this is how science should work.
              Last edited by rwatts; 07-15-2015, 06:42 PM.

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              • #8
                I get it, correlation does equal causation when it is something we believe in. OK
                Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by seer View Post
                  I get it, correlation does equal causation when it is something we believe in. OK
                  No. None of us have said anything like that, I and others even gave specific accounts of why we kniw that there is a causal link.

                  Apparently you don't believe one can ever argue more than correlation?

                  At any rate, I get that you disagree seer, but simply stomping your foot with a retort like that isn't charitable or very Christian of you. Its actually fairly immature.

                  We've put up arguments, you can 'That makes sense, I never thought about that.', or 'I didn't know about this but let me read it and get back to you'...

                  Or if you specifically know why we're wrong, then go ahead and make that argument, rather than making strawmans.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                    No. None of us have said anything like that, I and others even gave specific accounts of why we kniw that there is a causal link.

                    Apparently you don't believe one can ever argue more than correlation?

                    At any rate, I get that you disagree seer, but simply stomping your foot with a retort like that isn't charitable or very Christian of you. Its actually fairly immature.

                    We've put up arguments, you can 'That makes sense, I never thought about that.', or 'I didn't know about this but let me read it and get back to you'...

                    Or if you specifically know why we're wrong, then go ahead and make that argument, rather than making strawmans.
                    Shouldn't you be in bed or something?
                    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Chrawnus View Post
                      That's easy. Margarine is of the devil, and anyone who uses it instead of real butter is just asking for a divorce. Don't you know anything?
                      If you translate Margerine into Swahili, then into Greek, then Hebrew, you will find that it is based on the word for "Satan". Also, an examination of the chemical composition produces the number 666.
                      "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rwatts View Post
                        Not exactly.


                        We know that human activity does cause carbon dioxide emission and that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. So the feeling is that any temperature increase should be related to human activity. Hence an awful lot is invested in:-


                        1) showing this to be the case, or otherwise, and

                        2) understanding the underlying mechanism, should it be the case.


                        That is, it's a lot more that correlation = causation.


                        It might also be that consumption of margarine does cause divorce. That is, the correlation is real because of an actual underlying mechanism. If someone thinks this to be the case, then the aim would be for them to demonstrate the reality of that underlying mechanism.


                        Most folk accept that this is how science should work.
                        This is manipulative stretch. Whether one accepts the evidence as sufficient for Global Warming or not is not the issue. It is well determined that there is a linked correlation. Where as in the examples provided, there is no known objective evidence for the relationship, other than highly speculative anecdotal claims.
                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                          If you translate Margerine into Swahili, then into Greek, then Hebrew, you will find that it is based on the word for "Satan". Also, an examination of the chemical composition produces the number 666.
                          Speculative superstition rules. Well or poorly authored it can sell millions of books. See Immanuel Velikovsky.

                          You have the basis for a best seller and Book Club of the month.
                          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                          go with the flow the river knows . . .

                          Frank

                          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                          Comment

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