In a previous thread, not related, the methods and expectations of how good weather forecasting should be were questioned and much misinformation was presented. There are a number of models current run in Europe and the USA use computer models that use atmospheric, ocean temperatures and currents, history of weather patterns and cycles, and fractal chaos modeling to forecast weather on the short term (3 and 7 day) and long term up to one year.
The following is an example of how this modeling is used to forecast weather.
Weather forecasting is improving, but it will always be limited by the natural fact that all natural events follow fractal chaotic models. The more further into the future you try and forecast the weather the more variable the weather will turn out. Today we have reasonable three day forecasting, and ok but less reliable seven day forecasts.
One advantage of contemporary models is that they are developing whole world models, which has improved forecasting.
Later in this thread I will discuss long range forecasting, and the problems it presents.
The following is an example of how this modeling is used to forecast weather.
Originally posted by http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp
One advantage of contemporary models is that they are developing whole world models, which has improved forecasting.
Later in this thread I will discuss long range forecasting, and the problems it presents.