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Climate related news; planet still warming

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  • #31
    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
    No one of any competence is blaming severe winters on global warming.
    Um... yes, they most certainly are.

    One of the consequences of the warming planet; and in particular of polar amplification (exceptional warming in the Arctic) is a weaker jet stream. This in turn makes it more likely for the jet stream to have large loops, which can spill cold air down one region while have warmer regions right next to it. The USA is particularly susceptible to this; California can get the heat while Eastern USA gets Arctic air and blizzards.

    This is a completely serious consideration; with a good evidential basis. A good reference for this association is here:

    You should be able to find more about this association of warming with localized extreme winters very easily if you look. It is thoroughly serious and although it sounds absurd at first sight it is perfectly sensible.

    Cheers -- sylas

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by seer View Post
      The fact is Leonhard not that many years ago the warmists were predicting more and more powerful Atlantic hurricanes - that prediction was a complete bust.
      That I'm not convinced of.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by sylas View Post
        Um... yes, they most certainly are.

        One of the consequences of the warming planet; and in particular of polar amplification (exceptional warming in the Arctic) is a weaker jet stream. This in turn makes it more likely for the jet stream to have large loops, which can spill cold air down one region while have warmer regions right next to it. The USA is particularly susceptible to this; California can get the heat while Eastern USA gets Arctic air and blizzards.

        This is a completely serious consideration; with a good evidential basis. A good reference for this association is here:

        You should be able to find more about this association of warming with localized extreme winters very easily if you look. It is thoroughly serious and although it sounds absurd at first sight it is perfectly sensible.

        Cheers -- sylas
        if your talking a bout climatic pattern over time of severe winters, then yes. Simply just saying one observes severe winters without long term data, no.
        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

        go with the flow the river knows . . .

        Frank

        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
          if your talking a bout climatic pattern over time of severe winters, then yes. Simply just saying one observes severe winters without long term data, no.
          Agree that "no one of any competence" is making wild claims just by observing something and jumping to conclusions, of course. That wasn't happening here in this thread, however. In this very thread the real physical basis for global warming leading to severe (localized) winters had already been (briefly) explained, by klaus54 back in msg #14.

          The science of climate is complex and difficult; particularly when you get down into specific detail of how climate shifts as the planet heats up. But it's not being done by wild guess work. It's real honest to goodness working science; with solid progress in understanding being made. As usual, with working science at the bleeding edge of knowledge there are hypotheses being put up and investigated and challenged. The "polar amplification" phenomenon (in which warming is especially strong in the Arctic) was predicted well in advance, is reasonably well understood, and is most definitely measured and confirmed. The impact on the jet stream is unsurprising, and pretty credible with a considerable amount of published work. The consequence of blocking events and severe localized winters in the Northern Hemisphere is pretty solid too -- not exactly settled but certainly strongly supported in both theory and measurement.

          Much of the public debate surrounding climate, however, tends to be way out of touch with the real scientific debates going on. The so-called "pause" is a great case in point.

          Cheers -- sylas

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
            While I am quite aware of the difference between climate and weather, as cold as it has been in my neck of the woods this winter, it is very hard for me to see this year as another truly "hot" year. For that to be the case, somebody somewhere must be having a helluva summer!!
            That is precisely what is happening. Here's a map of temperature anomalies from the NASA climate research group, for January 2015.
            GISSjan2015.jpg

            January 2015 was very hot; beaten out only by an extreme hot January in 2007. It's all well above anything from the twentieth century; we really are moving into a very new and different climate.

            Even so, some regions still recorded well below average temperatures; and North East America is the stand out cold spot. It's a strictly regional phenomenon -- and very closely related to the jet stream issues I mention above. Basically, a lot of frigid air from the arctic has spilled down over your neck of the woods as the weaker jet stream wanders in a wide loop (Rossby wave) down south. That cold spot is an exception; the norm for Jan 2015 is very hot summers -- as in central China, or Alaska, or Eastern Europe, or up north of Greenland.

            There's an irony in this; what we experience is local; and as luck would have it, it's a populous part of USA with a strong trend of political conservatism and outright denial of basic science that happens to get the cold which feeds their errors and confusions on well established climate science. Sigh.

            Cheers -- sylas

            Comment


            • #36
              Sylas, do you believe that by now we understand AGW well? By now irrefutable?
              The greater number of laws . . . , the more thieves . . . there will be. ---- Lao-Tzu

              [T]he truth I’m after and the truth never harmed anyone. What harms us is to persist in self-deceit and ignorance -— Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Truthseeker View Post
                Sylas, do you believe that by now we understand AGW well? By now irrefutable?
                Do we understand disease?

                Similar question. We know a heck of a lot about AGW, and we have a heck of a lot more to learn.

                Cheers -- sylas

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by sylas View Post
                  Do we understand disease?

                  Similar question. We know a heck of a lot about AGW, and we have a heck of a lot more to learn.

                  Cheers -- sylas
                  But have you in your mind ruled out the possibility that AGW is only a minor factor in GW?
                  The greater number of laws . . . , the more thieves . . . there will be. ---- Lao-Tzu

                  [T]he truth I’m after and the truth never harmed anyone. What harms us is to persist in self-deceit and ignorance -— Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by sylas View Post
                    There's an irony in this; what we experience is local; and as luck would have it, it's a populous part of USA with a strong trend of political conservatism and outright denial of basic science that happens to get the cold which feeds their errors and confusions on well established climate science.
                    There's a deeper irony here. Yesterday, on the Senate floor, James Inhofe (R, Oklahoma) threw a locally manufactured snowball to highlight his continuing contempt for AGW. Meanwhile, back home in Oklahoma ...

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Truthseeker View Post
                      But have you in your mind ruled out the possibility that AGW is only a minor factor in GW?
                      Yes.

                      Physics, data, fingerprint studies; the whole weight of one hundred and fifty years of climate related studies make this one of the really really basic facts about climate in modern times. It's warming up because of changes in the atmosphere brought about by human activity. No credible basis at all for question on this point; modern day warming is anthropogenic.

                      Cheers -- sylas
                      Last edited by sylas; 02-27-2015, 08:01 PM. Reason: replaced two hundred with one hundred and fifty

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by seer View Post
                        My point is that we are not going to change anything, without India or China on board (and they are not) there is little we can do.
                        This is just wrong, on every level. India's most recent budget for 2015 includes several significant features intended to help reduce their climate impact.

                        Ref: Economic Survey: India gears up to deal with climate change, at The Times of India, Feb 27 2015.

                        Source: The Times of India, Feb 27 2015


                        "India shifted from a carbon subsidization regime to one of significant carbon taxation regime, from a negative price to an implicit positive price on carbon emissions.

                        "India has cut subsidies and increased taxes on fossil fuels (petrol and diesel), turning a carbon subsidy regime into one of carbon taxation, by putting an effective price on emissions. This has significantly increased petrol and diesel price while serving as price signal to reduce fuel burnt and hence carbon dioxide emissions".

                        It noted that calculating carbon dioxide emission reductions from measures taken for petrol and diesel suggests that there will be a net reduction of 11 million tons of CO2 emissions in less than a year compared to the baseline or 0.6% of India's annual emissions.

                        Pointing at action taken by the government during the current fiscal, the Survey said India has increased the coal cess from Rs 50 per ton to Rs 100 per ton, which is equivalent to a carbon tax of about US$ 1 per ton.

                        © Copyright Original Source



                        Sure; India like every other nation on Earth could do more. Regardless, the excuse of blaming India for letting USA do nothing is just delusional (as well as selfish, defeatist and irresponsible). You have a better case with China -- though as an excuse for being even worse this is still appalling. China is still doing more than the USA. China, USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada are all listed as "inadequate" on addressing this issue, as measured at http://climateactiontracker.org/. India as "medium". South Korea and Norway by contrast rank very well.

                        Cheers -- sylas

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          It seems some people have a hard time understanding the words "global" and "average". This befuddles me.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by sylas View Post
                            China is still doing more than the USA. China, USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada are all listed as "inadequate" on addressing this issue, as measured at http://climateactiontracker.org/.
                            Most of Europe isn't too good either.

                            Roy
                            Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                            MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                            MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                            seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Kristian Joensen View Post
                              It seems some people have a hard time understanding the words "global" and "average". This befuddles me.
                              Global: Stuff that doesn't affect the USA.
                              Average: Not as good as the USA.

                              Roy
                              Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                              MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                              MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                              seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Kristian Joensen View Post
                                It seems some people have a hard time understanding the words "global" and "average". This befuddles me.
                                If your head is in the oven and your feet are in a freezer, your belly button is about average.
                                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                                Frank

                                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                                Comment

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