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Climate related news; planet still warming

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  • Climate related news; planet still warming

    For some time now I have been saying that the alleged pause in global warming isn't really a pause at all. For example:

    Originally posted by sylas, Aug 7 2014, debunking in the thread Still No Global Warming For 17 Years 10 Months View Post
    The recent 17 year "pause" isn't really a pause. [...]

    The key to getting significant trends is to measure for longer periods. In the short term, we expect (and this shows up in both data and models) to get regular periods of time over which measured trends are substantially more, or less than the long term trend. It's called "natural variation"; but it's not actually random. It is largely chaotic; and hence we cannot predict well when you get the "pauses" and the "accelerations". But we will get them.

    [...] you get a better idea of what the pause is all about looking at the last 17 years in one of the surface temperature datasets. They all show warming; but over 17 years the confidence bounds include a possible flat trend within 95% confidence limits. So rather than "pause" I prefer to say that surface warming over the last 17 years is below statistical significance.

    The ideal thing would be to measure the ocean -- it has less short term variation and it is also where most of the heat goes. But that's really really hard. We would need to get accurate profiles across all depths, and all around the planet, and all through the year. We don't have that kind of resolution, alas. Indirect indications do show that the oceans are continuing to warm even as the atmosphere trends are showing a short term pause.

    It's a pretty safe bet that the current pause won't last. It's possible (though not at all certain) that 2014 will be a new record high. I definitely expect that one of the next five years will show a very clear record high global surface temperature anomaly. But we'll see....
    Since then; as we know, 2014 HAS actually set a new record for the hottest year on record ... and early indications make 2015 a credible prospect for a yet another new record. Any uptick in year to year variation is on top of the steady global warming that continues as before; so we keep getting new record hottest years from time to time.

    I mentioned the ocean in the extract quoted above; this is unambiguous evidence of ongoing warming. The ocean shows a lot less year to year natural variability than the atmosphere. For the ocean to keep heating up in the way we are measuring there has to be a steady excess of energy being taken in by the Earth -- that is, warming. You can't really overstate the importance of this measurement; the ocean is by far the major player that takes up heat as the world warms; it takes a heck of an excess of energy to maintain the warming we observe. It's a measurement that confirms the planet is continuing to warm up, and a powerful indicator that the slow down seen in surface temperatures is just short term variation in the highly variable atmospheric temperature record. It's misleading to even call it a "slow down", really. There's no good evidence of an actual change in the long term warming rate; what we are seeing is just short term variation that occurs on top of the long term patterns being driven by an increasingly stronger greenhouse effect. That's not just presumption; it's a hypothesis strongly supported by empirical evidence and basic thermodynamic physics.

    So: I'm posting this new thread because the news outlets are reporting a recent paper: Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures in Science, Vol. 347 no. 6225 pp. 988-991, Feb 27 2015. Basically, the paper states that "the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures". That's Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; natural somewhat chaotic variations in the ocean surface temperature. They are "oscillations"; they do not give "trend". The message of the paper is any "slow down" is likely to be followed by a "speed up". We may be seeing the start of that already; but being chaotic it's not easy to predict these decadal scale switches.

    The paper is getting a lot of press because it's a message that needs to be heard in the faux-debate of the public sphere; but in the world of science, this new paper is totally unsurprising and not particularly significant, IMO. It's a useful piece in the work of science but hardly ground breaking.

    Here's the recent global temperature anomaly record from NASA. with a couple of trend lines added in.
    GISS.jpg
    Orange line is the trend 1975-1998; green line is the trend 1975-2015

    Adding the most recent 17 years makes very little difference to the trend. What you CAN see is that 1998 was a stand out hot year. The so-called "pause" is really the years following this bump; the series is basically returning to the same underlying trend we've had all along after that bump in 1998. That is, there was a "speed up", and the "slow down" is really just maintaining unusually high temperatures for a while as the underlying trend catches up.

    As we continue on deeper into the 21st century, we'll continue to have random variations up and down around the underlying warming trend. The warming trend will continue; there's no credible doubt on that whatsoever. The proof lies in the oceans; they continue to soak up that extra heat Earth is absorbing as it continues to heat up -- this is a measurement, not an assumption.

    Cheers -- sylas

  • #2
    This follows my own guess about this situation as I've talked about earlier on this forum. The idea that global warming has slowed down, or even paused, is not well evidenced in the data. We have far better support for the temperature keeping on rising, which is precisely what's to be expected given that CO2 is the main driver of the temperature rise, as expected from basic models of physics.

    If the temperature had remained flat for thirty years in a row, which it didn't, then that would be a different story.

    The Earth is slated to become a few degrees warmer in this century, there's no reasonable doubt left about that.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
      This follows my own guess about this situation as I've talked about earlier on this forum. The idea that global warming has slowed down, or even paused, is not well evidenced in the data. We have far better support for the temperature keeping on rising, which is precisely what's to be expected given that CO2 is the main driver of the temperature rise, as expected from basic models of physics.

      If the temperature had remained flat for thirty years in a row, which it didn't, then that would be a different story.

      The Earth is slated to become a few degrees warmer in this century, there's no reasonable doubt left about that.
      That may be the case - may be. Given the documented frauds ("ClimateGate", anyone?) that have been exposed, I wouldn't trust any propaganda on this issue and, bluntly, IMHO anyone that uncritically swallows their story is (1) naive/ignorant, (2) stupid or, (3) part of the scam.

      That said, for argument let's assume that the data are true and that a upward "heat" trend is in fact occurring. The question now becomes: is it primarily due to man-made causes or is it primarily due to natural factors such as a global cycle? We all know what the Establishment and their propaganda machine wants everyone to believe, right?

      That there is a cadre of Global Elitists with diverse agendas is, to me, beyond any shadow of a doubt. In that vein, that they would use this "environmental platform" as a mechanism to advance their agendas is also beyond any shadow of doubt. But that would be a subject outside of this forum so I'll leave it there.

      Bottom line: I wouldn't believe this "Climate Change" BS if they held a gun to my head.

      Jorge

      Comment


      • #4
        Of course you wouldn't. You've swallowed all the tinfoil-hat crowd's nonsense unquestioningly. "Documented frauds" indeed.

        Bluntly, IMHO anyone that uncritically swallows that garbage is (1) naive/ignorant, (2) stupid or, (3) part of the scam or various combinations thereof.

        I strongly believe our civilization and most of us will survive, but our children and their children will go through an economic and social collapse never before seen, and people like Jorge bear a lot of the blame.

        I won't respond to anymore of Jorge's dreck in this thread but I had to get that off my chest.

        Comment


        • #5
          Don't feed the troll JonF. That goes to anyone else.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by JonF View Post
            I strongly believe our civilization and most of us will survive, but our children and their children will go through an economic and social collapse never before seen, and people like Jorge bear a lot of the blame.
            Oh stop. We will probably see a Nuclear Winter long before then. And we can thank "science" for that possibility.
            Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by sylas View Post
              For some time now I have been saying that the alleged pause in global warming isn't really a pause at all. For example:



              Since then; as we know, 2014 HAS actually set a new record for the hottest year on record ... and early indications make 2015 a credible prospect for a yet another new record. Any uptick in year to year variation is on top of the steady global warming that continues as before; so we keep getting new record hottest years from time to time.

              I mentioned the ocean in the extract quoted above; this is unambiguous evidence of ongoing warming. The ocean shows a lot less year to year natural variability than the atmosphere. For the ocean to keep heating up in the way we are measuring there has to be a steady excess of energy being taken in by the Earth -- that is, warming. You can't really overstate the importance of this measurement; the ocean is by far the major player that takes up heat as the world warms; it takes a heck of an excess of energy to maintain the warming we observe. It's a measurement that confirms the planet is continuing to warm up, and a powerful indicator that the slow down seen in surface temperatures is just short term variation in the highly variable atmospheric temperature record. It's misleading to even call it a "slow down", really. There's no good evidence of an actual change in the long term warming rate; what we are seeing is just short term variation that occurs on top of the long term patterns being driven by an increasingly stronger greenhouse effect. That's not just presumption; it's a hypothesis strongly supported by empirical evidence and basic thermodynamic physics.

              So: I'm posting this new thread because the news outlets are reporting a recent paper: Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures in Science, Vol. 347 no. 6225 pp. 988-991, Feb 27 2015. Basically, the paper states that "the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures". That's Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; natural somewhat chaotic variations in the ocean surface temperature. They are "oscillations"; they do not give "trend". The message of the paper is any "slow down" is likely to be followed by a "speed up". We may be seeing the start of that already; but being chaotic it's not easy to predict these decadal scale switches.

              The paper is getting a lot of press because it's a message that needs to be heard in the faux-debate of the public sphere; but in the world of science, this new paper is totally unsurprising and not particularly significant, IMO. It's a useful piece in the work of science but hardly ground breaking.

              Here's the recent global temperature anomaly record from NASA. with a couple of trend lines added in.
              [ATTACH=CONFIG]4223[/ATTACH]
              Orange line is the trend 1975-1998; green line is the trend 1975-2015

              Adding the most recent 17 years makes very little difference to the trend. What you CAN see is that 1998 was a stand out hot year. The so-called "pause" is really the years following this bump; the series is basically returning to the same underlying trend we've had all along after that bump in 1998. That is, there was a "speed up", and the "slow down" is really just maintaining unusually high temperatures for a while as the underlying trend catches up.

              As we continue on deeper into the 21st century, we'll continue to have random variations up and down around the underlying warming trend. The warming trend will continue; there's no credible doubt on that whatsoever. The proof lies in the oceans; they continue to soak up that extra heat Earth is absorbing as it continues to heat up -- this is a measurement, not an assumption.

              Cheers -- sylas
              While I am quite aware of the difference between climate and weather, as cold as it has been in my neck of the woods this winter, it is very hard for me to see this year as another truly "hot" year. For that to be the case, somebody somewhere must be having a helluva summer!!


              Jim

              PS That said, I've noticed Anchorage has been having what appears to be (from what I remember when I lived there many many moons ago) an incredibly mild winder. Often above freezing during the day - which is crazy in the dead of winter there.
              He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

              "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                While I am quite aware of the difference between climate and weather, as cold as it has been in my neck of the woods this winter, it is very hard for me to see this year as another truly "hot" year. For that to be the case, somebody somewhere must be having a helluva summer!!


                Jim

                PS That said, I've noticed Anchorage has been having what appears to be (from what I remember when I lived there many many moons ago) an incredibly mild winder. Often above freezing during the day - which is crazy in the dead of winter there.
                Denmark saw the mildest winter in a long, long, looooong time. We had half as many days with a temperature below zero, as last year.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I read an article yesterday about how a farmer in Alaska has been able to take advantage of climate change to reap some unprecedented harvests. (The article isn't so much about global warming but it's interesting anyway.) http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/201...-a-breadbasket
                  "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                    I read an article yesterday about how a farmer in Alaska has been able to take advantage of climate change to reap some unprecedented harvests. (The article isn't so much about global warming but it's interesting anyway.) http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/201...-a-breadbasket
                    Yes the benefits of a warmer climate...
                    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                      Denmark saw the mildest winter in a long, long, looooong time. We had half as many days with a temperature below zero, as last year.
                      And we had the coldest February here in the northeast EVER recorded. Go figure.
                      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by sylas View Post
                        For some time now I have been saying that the alleged pause in global warming isn't really a pause at all. For example:



                        Since then; as we know, 2014 HAS actually set a new record for the hottest year on record ... and early indications make 2015 a credible prospect for a yet another new record. Any uptick in year to year variation is on top of the steady global warming that continues as before; so we keep getting new record hottest years from time to time.

                        I mentioned the ocean in the extract quoted above; this is unambiguous evidence of ongoing warming. The ocean shows a lot less year to year natural variability than the atmosphere. For the ocean to keep heating up in the way we are measuring there has to be a steady excess of energy being taken in by the Earth -- that is, warming. You can't really overstate the importance of this measurement; the ocean is by far the major player that takes up heat as the world warms; it takes a heck of an excess of energy to maintain the warming we observe. It's a measurement that confirms the planet is continuing to warm up, and a powerful indicator that the slow down seen in surface temperatures is just short term variation in the highly variable atmospheric temperature record. It's misleading to even call it a "slow down", really. There's no good evidence of an actual change in the long term warming rate; what we are seeing is just short term variation that occurs on top of the long term patterns being driven by an increasingly stronger greenhouse effect. That's not just presumption; it's a hypothesis strongly supported by empirical evidence and basic thermodynamic physics.

                        So: I'm posting this new thread because the news outlets are reporting a recent paper: Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures in Science, Vol. 347 no. 6225 pp. 988-991, Feb 27 2015. Basically, the paper states that "the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures". That's Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; natural somewhat chaotic variations in the ocean surface temperature. They are "oscillations"; they do not give "trend". The message of the paper is any "slow down" is likely to be followed by a "speed up". We may be seeing the start of that already; but being chaotic it's not easy to predict these decadal scale switches.

                        The paper is getting a lot of press because it's a message that needs to be heard in the faux-debate of the public sphere; but in the world of science, this new paper is totally unsurprising and not particularly significant, IMO. It's a useful piece in the work of science but hardly ground breaking.

                        Here's the recent global temperature anomaly record from NASA. with a couple of trend lines added in.
                        [ATTACH=CONFIG]4223[/ATTACH]
                        Orange line is the trend 1975-1998; green line is the trend 1975-2015

                        Adding the most recent 17 years makes very little difference to the trend. What you CAN see is that 1998 was a stand out hot year. The so-called "pause" is really the years following this bump; the series is basically returning to the same underlying trend we've had all along after that bump in 1998. That is, there was a "speed up", and the "slow down" is really just maintaining unusually high temperatures for a while as the underlying trend catches up.

                        As we continue on deeper into the 21st century, we'll continue to have random variations up and down around the underlying warming trend. The warming trend will continue; there's no credible doubt on that whatsoever. The proof lies in the oceans; they continue to soak up that extra heat Earth is absorbing as it continues to heat up -- this is a measurement, not an assumption.

                        Cheers -- sylas
                        An analogy is the stock market. Over 80 years there's been a steady upward trend with short term, even hour-to-hour, peaks and troughs.

                        K54

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Jorge View Post
                          That may be the case - may be. Given the documented frauds ("ClimateGate", anyone?) that have been exposed, I wouldn't trust any propaganda on this issue and, bluntly, IMHO anyone that uncritically swallows their story is (1) naive/ignorant, (2) stupid or, (3) part of the scam.

                          That said, for argument let's assume that the data are true and that a upward "heat" trend is in fact occurring. The question now becomes: is it primarily due to man-made causes or is it primarily due to natural factors such as a global cycle? We all know what the Establishment and their propaganda machine wants everyone to believe, right?

                          That there is a cadre of Global Elitists with diverse agendas is, to me, beyond any shadow of a doubt. In that vein, that they would use this "environmental platform" as a mechanism to advance their agendas is also beyond any shadow of doubt. But that would be a subject outside of this forum so I'll leave it there.

                          Bottom line: I wouldn't believe this "Climate Change" BS if they held a gun to my head.

                          Jorge
                          Does it give you a feeling of maverick satisfaction to be wrong about everything?

                          The comedy routine continues...

                          K54

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by seer View Post
                            And we had the coldest February here in the northeast EVER recorded. Go figure.
                            I agree that GW is a hard sell to hoi poloi in the U.S. NE (and Midwest as far down as SW Missouri!), but GW is an increase in average global temperature. There are regions on Earth, including parts of the ocean, that are warmer than average.

                            In fact the weirdly cold weather is caused by change in the jet stream and air mass movement that are a result of GW. One prediction is that western Europe would cool as the warm Gulf Stream weakens due to salinity decrease north of the Arctic Circle.

                            GW is also causing precipitation distribution issues, (possibly e.g., the crapastic amount of snow Boston is receiving.)

                            K54

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by klaus54 View Post
                              I agree that GW is a hard sell to hoi poloi in the U.S. NE (and Midwest as far down as SW Missouri!), but GW is an increase in average global temperature. There are regions on Earth, including parts of the ocean, that are warmer than average.

                              In fact the weirdly cold weather is caused by change in the jet stream and air mass movement that are a result of GW. One prediction is that western Europe would cool as the warm Gulf Stream weakens due to salinity decrease north of the Arctic Circle.

                              GW is also causing precipitation distribution issues, (possibly e.g., the crapastic amount of snow Boston is receiving.)

                              K54
                              My point is that we are not going to change anything, without India or China on board (and they are not) there is little we can do. Along with the fact that the warmists are pretty much losing the PR war. On top of that I think there are much more immediate dangers, I agree with Hawking:

                              Stephen Hawking may be getting some Hollywood love for "The Theory of Everything," a biopic about his life that earned actor Eddie Redmayne the best actor Oscar at last night's Academy Awards. But that hasn't stopped the world-famous physicist from issuing yet another warning about humanity's impending doom.

                              Human aggression threatens to destroy us all, Hawking said during a tour of London's Science Museum last week. The remark was in response to a question about what human shortcomings he would most like to alter. Hawking suffers from a neurological disease similar to Lou Gehrig's disease, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

                              A major nuclear war would be the end of civilization and possibly the human race, the Cambridge University professor said. Hawking called for greater empathy, and added that human space exploration is necessary as "life insurance" for humanity.
                              http://www.livescience.com/49906-haw...n-warning.html
                              Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                              Comment

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