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Climate change consensus

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Adrift View Post
    This isn't a religious issue, it's a political one.
    In the US, there's a difference?

    Christian ≠ Republican.
    Quietly there, lad ... I've seen you hairy-ticked on less outrageous claims than that.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by lao tzu View Post
      I remember when Exxon wasn't trying to open up oil resources in the arctic ocean and the US Military wasn't putting out reports about national security threats due to climate change.

      Damn those liberals.

      And I remember when Christians were at the forefront of checking scientific facts against their ideological positions.

      I've read the IPCC reports, Sparkly. While I don't know where you got those weird exaggerations, I do know where you didn't.
      Just reading some old headlines:

      U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP - entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of "eco-refugees," threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect - Associated Press June 30, 1989

      'New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now,' - St. Louis Post-Dispatch Sept. 17, 1989

      ''I think we're in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left - we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.'' - ABC - The Miracle Planet April 22, 1990

      Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting even. Children just aren't going to know what snow is," Dr David Viner, Senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia - Mar 20, 2000

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by lao tzu View Post
        I remember when Exxon wasn't trying to open up oil resources in the arctic ocean and the US Military wasn't putting out reports about national security threats due to climate change.

        Damn those liberals.

        And I remember when Christians were at the forefront of checking scientific facts against their ideological positions.

        I've read the IPCC reports, Sparkly. While I don't know where you got those weird exaggerations, I do know where you didn't.
        Of course the military is always preparing for worst case scenarios. It is part of their job. We even have plans on how to respond from an attack from Canackistan.



        I remember when before the first pipeline was built in Canada how we were told it would decimate the local caribou population but after it was built that they thrived. The caribou stay close to the pipeline for warmth during the coldest times of the year.

        I'm always still in trouble again

        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          Just reading some old headlines:

          U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP - entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of "eco-refugees," threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect - Associated Press June 30, 1989

          'New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now,' - St. Louis Post-Dispatch Sept. 17, 1989

          ''I think we're in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left - we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.'' - ABC - The Miracle Planet April 22, 1990

          Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting even. Children just aren't going to know what snow is," Dr David Viner, Senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia - Mar 20, 2000
          No links? You're clearly pulling these from another source.

          That probably has a link.

          You should cite it.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by lao tzu View Post
            In the US, there's a difference?
            Ought to be.

            Quietly there, lad ... I've seen you hairy-ticked on less outrageous claims than that.
            Yeah, well...


            On the other side of the debate, you know, are Chicken Little skits like these helping matters?

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by lao tzu View Post
              No links? You're clearly pulling these from another source.

              That probably has a link.

              You should cite it.
              oops. sorry.

              It was just a list of headlines over the years: http://www.lowerwolfjaw.com/agw/quotes.htm

              But I remember all of the crap science that went on over the years, using scare tactics to claim that the world was ending soon if we don't do something right away, the ice caps would melt, coasts would flood, etc and etc. The IPCC is still claiming the same things 40 years later, such as the end of snow as we know it, melting ice caps, blah blah blah. It's mostly political claptrap and no real science at all. Just computer models built to predict what they want to predict.

              But this is getting off topic.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                Since when does science depend on consensus? At one time 99.99% of geologists thought plate tectonics was kook science.
                Careful with this generalization. It is likely false. I was studying geology when the plate tectonics began to be considered as a theory. Many did not accept it at first, but few called it 'kook science!?!?!' You like many living in the past fail to realize the knowledge of science evolves and changes.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  oops. sorry.

                  It was just a list of headlines over the years: http://www.lowerwolfjaw.com/agw/quotes.htm

                  But I remember all of the crap science that went on over the years, using scare tactics to claim that the world was ending soon if we don't do something right away, the ice caps would melt, coasts would flood, etc and etc. The IPCC is still claiming the same things 40 years later, such as the end of snow as we know it, melting ice caps, blah blah blah. It's mostly political claptrap and no real science at all. Just computer models built to predict what they want to predict.

                  But this is getting off topic.
                  Ice caps are melting and sea levels are rising.
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    Ice caps are melting and sea levels are rising.
                    And where I live it used to be covered with 50 foot glaciers. And the North Pole was sub-tropical. And?
                    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                      oops. sorry.

                      It was just a list of headlines over the years: http://www.lowerwolfjaw.com/agw/quotes.htm

                      But I remember all of the crap science that went on over the years, using scare tactics to claim that the world was ending soon if we don't do something right away, the ice caps would melt, coasts would flood, etc and etc. The IPCC is still claiming the same things 40 years later, such as the end of snow as we know it, melting ice caps, blah blah blah. It's mostly political claptrap and no real science at all. Just computer models built to predict what they want to predict.

                      But this is getting off topic.
                      Most crap science hype fades out when you restrict yourself to the best available sources. That's just as true in other fields, including theology.

                      For climate science, the IPCC sets the benchmark. Reading through the reports, everything is linked back to the journals. One of the things I hate about popular press accounts is they rarely leave a link to a journal article even when they're popularizing the article.

                      And then there's the paywall issue ... arrgh ... I can get past paywalls with my academic accounts, but geezlouise what about the average Joe? Academic publishing has become a multi-billion dollar industry apparently devoted to preventing precisely what it was created to do: make scientific literature accessible.

                      Okay, yeah, that is getting off topic, too. But it's a pet peeve.

                      Back on topic, scientific consensus isn't just a beauty contest, and the results shouldn't be as easily dismissed, especially on issues like climate science that had to make their way in the face of heavy criticism. There's a difference between positions accepted by default and those that have had to pay their dues.

                      And it's not just a question of following the consensus on climate science, either. There's actual, and quite common, misapprehension about what the consensus actually is on this issue.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by seer View Post
                        And where I live it used to be covered with 50 foot glaciers. And the North Pole was sub-tropical. And?
                        Based on your religious perspective I do not think you accept this in a world billions of years old, without a world flood, nor that change can be predicted and measured in modern science, and yes as predicted sea levels are rising and glaciers are retreating as predicted.
                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                          Based on your religious perspective I do not think you accept this in a world billions of years old, without a world flood, nor that change can be predicted and measured in modern science, and yes as predicted sea levels are rising and glaciers are retreating as predicted.
                          Assert something and give no link to published research.
                          The greater number of laws . . . , the more thieves . . . there will be. ---- Lao-Tzu

                          [T]he truth I’m after and the truth never harmed anyone. What harms us is to persist in self-deceit and ignorance -— Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Adrift View Post
                            Ought to be.
                            Preach it, brother.

                            Yeah, well...
                            Bingo.

                            On the other side of the debate, you know, are Chicken Little skits like these helping matters?

                            [video]
                            That show was a satire on network news, right? I never saw it myself.

                            As I suggested to Sparks, when you move away from the best available information, crap happens.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Why may I not assert on the basis of the article linked above that more than 60% of stuff published regarding climate change expressed no opinion?
                              The greater number of laws . . . , the more thieves . . . there will be. ---- Lao-Tzu

                              [T]he truth I’m after and the truth never harmed anyone. What harms us is to persist in self-deceit and ignorance -— Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                My personal opinion is thus: Climate science is extraordinarily complex. I simply lack the expertise to properly make judgements in this area. Therefore, as in other issues I am not competent to pass judgement on, I must rely on the best expert opinions based on the broadest evidence. If several neurologists tell me I have a brain tumour and an operation is necessary, I must accept their advice despite the fact I will pay one of them to do it.

                                Consensus in science does not mean 'truth' necessarily but it makes it more likely than not. If anthropogenic climate climate change is real, then there are actions we should take. If it isn't real, then those actions make no difference. If it is real, the consequences of not taking action are catastrophic.

                                Otherwise, we place ourselves in the position of believing a plucky band of energy corporations and oil billionaires are fighting a gigantic evil conspiracy of nasty scientists.

                                Comment

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