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State of the Union - Climate change?

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  • #31
    Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post
    The average global temperature has increased approx. 0.6 deg. C in the last 40 years.
    Isn't true that the global temperature has remained pretty much flat in the last 15 years?


    Me and 99% of the climate scientists on the planet.
    The question is, what happens to scientists who buck the trend? And scientists are human too and subject to group think and peer pressure.
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post

      [ATTACH=CONFIG]167[/ATTACH]
      As to your chart:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/2...warming-begin/

      In fact it was not until approximately 1975 that temperatures began to rise. As such, one could argue that Global Warming began in approximately 1975.

      However, in 2010 Phil Jones was asked by the BBC, “Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?” Phil Jones responded that,”Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different. I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998. So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.”

      The warming during the periods of “1860-1880″ and “1910-1940″, before anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions became potentially consequential, is “not statistically significantly different” from the warming during the periods “1975-1998″ and “1975 to 2009″. Thus there is no indication that the warming between “1975-1998″ and “1975 to 2009″ is unnatural, unusual and/or caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Global Warming may have started in 1975, but there is no observable evidence [of] anthropogenic CO2 emission based Global Warming began in 1975. As such, one could argue that anthropogenic CO2 emission based Global Warming began sometime [after] 1975.
      So the warming periods we saw from 1860-1880 and from 1910-1940 ("before anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions became potentially consequential") were not significantly different from what we have seen recently.
      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by seer View Post
        Isn't true that the global temperature has remained pretty much flat in the last 15 years?
        No, that is not true.

        The question is, what happens to scientists who buck the trend? And scientists are human too and subject to group think and peer pressure.
        Do you mean scientists who think that there is no warming trend? Well, they publish papers in which they try to prove their point and fail.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Jonathandavid View Post
          No, that is not true.
          Then why did I just read that?

          http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...#ixzz29E78OR9H

          The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

          The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

          This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.
          Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by seer View Post
            Isn't true that the global temperature has remained pretty much flat in the last 15 years?
            You need to looks at long term trends not short term variation. The technical term is regression towards the mean where short term variations can move in opposite direction of the long term trend. No one says or thinks the overall global rise will produce a smooth curve.

            The question is, what happens to scientists who buck the trend? And scientists are human too and subject to group think and peer pressure.
            If they buck the trend and publish data in the peer-reviewed professional scientific literature to support their ideas they win the Nobel Prize.

            If they buck the trend and only publish on non-peer reviewed AGW denial propaganda web pages they're considered cranks.

            Comment


            • #36
              There is another reason for using 'Climate Change,' instead of 'Global Warming' is that it involves the Desertification (Aridification) of vast agricultural regions around the existing deserts. This part of the reason why beef is now $3.00 to $5.00 or more a pound, due to aridification of western regions of the USA. This also happening Asia, Australia and Africa.

              It would help that naysayers of 'Climate Change' would not resort to acid dripping sarcasm, and bitter rhetoric to express their objections. I would like to see actual scientific evidence to back up their objections. Any past claims of 'entering an Ice Age' were never supported by long term climate data. 'Global Climate Change' is supported by long term climate data. Glenn had long involved threads trying to argue against 'Climate Change' caused by human pollution, and failed.

              Greenland has warmed an average of 5 degrees in recent history. Far beyond any normal predictive models.
              Last edited by shunyadragon; 01-29-2014, 04:28 PM.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post
                You need to looks at long term trends not short term variation. The technical term is regression towards the mean where short term variations can move in opposite direction of the long term trend. No one says or thinks the overall global rise will produce a smooth curve.
                So you agree that the global temperature has remained pretty much flat in the last 15 years?
                Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                  It would help that naysayers of 'Climate Change' would not resort to acid dripping sarcasm, and bitter rhetoric to express their objections. I would like to see actual scientific evidence to back up their objections.
                  Are you familiar with Burt Rutan?
                  I DENOUNCE DONALD J. TRUMP AND ALL HIS IMMORAL ACTS.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by seer View Post
                    So you agree that the global temperature has remained pretty much flat in the last 15 years?
                    No, but you must realize that 'Climate Change is based on thousands of years of Climate data.
                    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                    go with the flow the river knows . . .

                    Frank

                    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Zymologist View Post
                      Are you familiar with Burt Rutan?
                      Burt Rutan's education and experience is not remotely related to the disciplines involved in studying 'Climate Change.' He does build neat fast aircraft.
                      Last edited by shunyadragon; 01-29-2014, 04:35 PM.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by seer View Post
                        As to your chart:

                        http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/2...warming-begin/

                        So the warming periods we saw from 1860-1880 and from 1910-1940 ("before anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions became potentially consequential") were not significantly different from what we have seen recently.
                        Sorry but Anthony Watts is an ex-TV weatherman and well known climate change denier crank. The stuff that he puts out on his website is less than worthless to the scientific community. If he had anything of value to add he'd write it up and submit it to a major professional journal for publication. But he doesn't, so he won't.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                          Burt Rutan's education and experience is not remotely related to the disciplines involved in studying 'Climate Change.'
                          That appears to be a pretty unreasonable way of dismissing the work of an expert data analyst with something like 45 years of experience, but ok. I was just curious.
                          I DENOUNCE DONALD J. TRUMP AND ALL HIS IMMORAL ACTS.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post
                            The average global temperature has increased approx. 0.6 deg. C in the last 40 years.

                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]167[/ATTACH]





                            Me and 99% of the climate scientists on the planet.
                            Yeah and in 1975 the same scientists claimed the temperature fell .8 degrees F in 20 years...

                            climate 75.jpg

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Zymologist View Post
                              That appears to be a pretty unreasonable way of dismissing the work of an expert data analyst with something like 45 years of experience, but ok. I was just curious.
                              In what professional scientific venues has Burt Rutan published his work on climate change? What professional climatologists have reviewed and agreed with his analysis?

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                                Yeah and in 1975 the same scientists claimed the temperature fell .8 degrees F in 20 years...

                                [ATTACH=CONFIG]169[/ATTACH]
                                Please supply the specific source for that data, preferably with a link. The chart isn't identified as global temperature change.

                                Comment

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