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Warming: Where Is The Harm?

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  • #31
    Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post
    The blue part of the graph is actual data.
    yeah and it shows nothing. one blip in 2004 and they "predict" catastrophe using a model. That's all we have been hearing for 30 years. Why in just a few years, by the year 2000, er 2010, er 2020, er 2100, we will have ruined the world! The end is nigh!

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    • #32
      Carelessness on my part.
      When the earth was much warmer wasn't it also more lush? More tropical?
      Overall, no.
      Was there less rainfall back then, with more deserts?
      Rainfall increases with increased temperature at high latitudes. In the lower latitudes, it decreases. The grain growing areas would shift farther from the equator. The Sahara would become larger.
      Central Sudan - 9500 BC lush land supporting high population - today Desert.
      The Sahara Desert - 4000 BC well watered savannah grass land - the desert didn't exist. 9 400 000 sq km today, including 250 000 square mile expansion during the past 50 years.
      Gobi Desert - 1994 to 1999 expanded 20 000 square miles
      As the world average temperatures increase, and up to a threshold, it will get hotter and drier. Desert range will continue to increase (maybe up to 185% increase on today's area) and tropical rainforest areas will decrease. Above that threshold, it gets wetter, deserts will contract (maybe to 65% of today's area) ... OK (maybe) if that threshold is crossed within a few years span, but that isn't likely. Before the threshold is crossed, even if it only takes 10 years, widespread famine is likely.

      Fertile Crescent - 20 000 square km in 2300 BC down to 2 000 sq km today. (Not due to global warming, just human stupidity)
      sigpic1 Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω

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      • #33
        Pssst. You wanna know the real reason there are droughts and not much rainfall in California?




































        ...because it is a freaking DESERT!!!! That's why!

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        • #34
          Originally posted by tabibito View Post
          Carelessness on my part.
          As the world average temperatures increase, and up to a threshold, it will get hotter and drier. Desert range will continue to increase (maybe up to 185% increase on today's area) and tropical rainforest areas will decrease. Above that threshold, it gets wetter, deserts will contract (maybe to 65% of today's area) ... OK (maybe) if that threshold is crossed within a few years span, but that isn't likely. Before the threshold is crossed, even if it only takes 10 years, widespread famine is likely.
          Ok, perhaps I'm not getting this. When the earth was much warmer (by far) are you saying that there were more and larger deserts back then? Didn't we actually have more and larger rainforests back in then?

          For instance:

          Plant Life During the Cretaceous Period

          As far as plants are concerned, the main innovation of the Cretaceous period was the rapid diversification of flowering plants, which spread across the separating continents, along with thick forests and other varieties of dense, matted vegetation. All of this greenery not only sustained the dinosaurs, but it also allowed the co-evolution of a wide variety of insects, especially beetles.
          And that all happened when it was much warmer than today.
          Last edited by seer; 07-01-2014, 02:15 PM.
          Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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          • #35
            A lot warmer leads to the kind of climates you are thinking of. A bit warmer and the climate gets drier. Whether global warming produces a major problem or not (in terms of actual rainfall) depends on how long it takes to go from a bit warmer to a lot warmer. Fast transition might be less of a problem than slow.
            sigpic1 Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω

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            • #36
              Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post
              ""science can't prove this specific case of lung cancer was caused by smoking!!"



              Meanwhile the data shows the precipitation average in the US west with a steadily decline over the last 100 years


              According to a paper published today in Atmospheric Science Letters, global precipitation has either decreased, increased, or not changed over the past 30 years, depending upon which of 3 global datasets are examined:

              “Decadal trends of global precipitation are examined using the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. The decadal trends of global precipitation average diverge a decreasing trend for the CMAP data, a flat trend for the GPCP data, and an increasing trend for the reanalysis data.”

              Thus, the actual trend of global precipitation, if any, remains a mystery. Several peer-reviewed papers have shown climate models are unable to simulate decadal trends in precipitation, unable to simulate regional trends in precipitation, and that the claim “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” is without basis.
              http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013...tion-datasets/

              http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/2...-not-changing/
              Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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              • #37
                I would like sea biscuit, er beagle to explain how you get negative precipitation. I can understand zero precipitation, but how do you get negative numbers? Anti-rain?

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by tabibito View Post
                  A lot warmer leads to the kind of climates you are thinking of. A bit warmer and the climate gets drier. Whether global warming produces a major problem or not (in terms of actual rainfall) depends on how long it takes to go from a bit warmer to a lot warmer. Fast transition might be less of a problem than slow.
                  Then we should accelerate warming?
                  Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by seer View Post
                    Then we should accelerate warming?
                    We need more cow farts!

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Records show that deserts are expanding - though not in a smooth line - the overall trend is one of expansion.
                      So, are there any records showing that other environments are expanding?
                      Rainfall in semi arid areas is reducing, particularly in autumn (fall), and the zones are expanding and shifting away from the equator.
                      But that is an over-all pattern - in some areas semi arid zones are expanding but not shifting, in others shifting but not expanding, in yet other areas it is both. Over all - semi arid area is increasing.
                      Tropical climates are showing a modest annual average expansion.
                      Mediterranean climates shifting poleward - already altering the viability of some grape growing areas.
                      Temperate climate zones - shifting poleward. Increase of average 2 degrees centigrade will turn large parts of these areas into desert.
                      So - graphs or no graphs, projections or no projections ... observed trends show climate change. Moreover, most food groups (if I remember rightly) depend on temperate or Mediterranian climates. Those zones are the hardest hit in the short term.
                      sigpic1 Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        We need more cow farts!
                        Isn't there a better way? More coal plants?
                        Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by seer View Post
                          Isn't there a better way? More coal plants?
                          yeah. And I am willing to go buy a gas guzzling, oil burning, smokemobile to help out.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            I'm sure you can find plenty of wingnut AGW denier sites with all sorts of manipulated data on short term trends. Lying for their cause is what they do. When you can present something from the primary scientific literature on rainfall in the US west over the last 100 years let me know.

                            For the one-eyed science illiterate - you can have negative trends in rainfall, in temperature, in any physically measurable parameter. Geez...

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by HMS_Beagle View Post
                              I'm sure you can find plenty of wingnut AGW denier sites with all sorts of manipulated data on short term trends. Lying for their cause is what they do. When you can present something from the primary scientific literature on rainfall in the US west over the last 100 years let me know.

                              For the one-eyed science illiterate - you can have negative trends in rainfall, in temperature, in any physically measurable parameter. Geez...
                              Translation: "I still got nothing. But I am really good at regurgitating the party line"

                              I am sure you can find plenty of wingnut AGW supporters sites with all sorts of manipulated data. Lying for their cause is what they do.

                              Gee that was easy.

                              --

                              So, how about producing a chart of the actual rainfall (not TRENDS) measured in the last 100 years in California? Hmmm? Your chart said "precipitation" not "trends". And you claimed it was the actual data. Apparently it wasn't. So... where's the real measured data?

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                As I said in post 40 - projections and charts are pretty much meaningless in the face of measurable changes in climate zones.
                                sigpic1 Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω

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