Warming Then And Now?

[seer]

Yeah seer - we should have built all our seaports and the associated ship loading/unloading infrastructure 5 miles inland well away from the water.

Sometimes all you can do is shake your head.

Shipping infrastructure is one thing, million dollar condos is another - and that is the largest growth in my area up here.

[HMS_Beagle]

Shipping infrastructure is one thing, million dollar condos is another - and that is the largest growth in my area up here.

I thought you were for a free market economy? If someone is willing to pay $1M for an ocean view why should the developer build condos 5 miles inland with no view that sell for $100K?

[seer]

I thought you were for a free market economy? If someone is willing to pay $1M for an ocean view why should the developer build condos 5 miles inland with no view that sell for $100K?

They can do what they want, just don't bitch when your house is blown away...

[Leonhard]

No, PD - no model predicted this 17 year slowdown.

Even if there is a hiatus, the only way to get 17 years is by counting 1998 along with it, which was an anomalous la nina year I think. If there's a hiatus you should be counting from 2003, with a slowdown starting around 2001. So its more like 12 years.

Though this is me nitpicking inflated numbers.

[TheLurch]

No, PD - no model predicted this 17 year slowdown.

What's PD? And what do you base this claim on?

In any case, here's a climate scientist saying "Climate model projections have shown periods of cooling of about this length, embedded within longer-term warming." If you have an actual source for your claim and want me to provide something more official, i will. But i'm not going to put too much work into countering something that's just an evidence-free assertion on your part.

Really? Do you have a link saying that the storm strength in the Atlantic is up? And up from what?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full

[seer]

What's PD? And what do you base this claim on?

In any case, here's a climate scientist saying "Climate model projections have shown periods of cooling of about this length, embedded within longer-term warming." If you have an actual source for your claim and want me to provide something more official, i will. But i'm not going to put too much work into countering something that's just an evidence-free assertion on your part.

Sorry, I thought you were Poor Debater. So do you have a link where computer models predicted this slowdown?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full

Your link is from 2005, that is irrelevant to the last three or four years, which have been milder, and which I was speaking of. So let me get this right - if the intensity of storms is the result of warming, what do less intense storms point to?

[HMS_Beagle]

Your link is from 2005, that is irrelevant to the last three or four years, which have been milder, and which I was speaking of. So let me get this right - if the intensity of storms is the result of warming, what do less intense storms point to?

After all the years of people patiently explaining to you you still don't get that short term variations don't invalidate long term trends. Amazing.

[TheLurch]

Sorry, I thought you were Poor Debater. So do you have a link where computer models predicted this slowdown?

Do you have any evidence that says they don't? Because i linked to a climate scientist saying they do.

Your link is from 2005, that is irrelevant to the last three or four years, which have been milder, and which I was speaking of. So let me get this right - if the intensity of storms is the result of warming, what do less intense storms point to?

Climate trends take decades to appear. 3 years is an anecdote.

[seer]

Do you have any evidence that says they don't? Because i linked to a climate scientist saying they do.

Really? That is your answer?

Climate trends take decades to appear. 3 years is an anecdote.

Ok, from your link:

During the hurricane season of 2004, there were 14 named storms in the North Atlantic, of which 9 achieved hurricane intensity. Four of these hurricanes struck the southeast United States in rapid succession, causing considerable damage and disruption. Analysis of hurricane characteristics in the North Atlantic (1, 2) has shown an increase in hurricane frequency and intensity since 1995.

So this hurricane frequency and intensity over the nine years is also anecdotal?

[TheLurch]

Really? That is your answer?

You have nothing to indicate that what i'm saying is false. Why should i put in the work to counter a claim that's based on nothing?

So this hurricane frequency and intensity over the nine years is also anecdotal?

Nine years? Yes, not a climate trend. 35 years, which the paper examines, is.

[seer]

You have nothing to indicate that what i'm saying is false. Why should i put in the work to counter a claim that's based on nothing?

Hey listen, I have not seen any model that point to a 17 year slowdown, especially in light of the fact that more Co2 has been pumped into the atmosphere. I thought that would have just the opposite effect - to raise temperatures. So I guess Co2 could actually lower temperatures, or slow the rise.

Nine years? Yes, not a climate trend. 35 years, which the paper examines, is.

But even in your link, in the graphs, the frequency and intensity remain fairly flat until the 90s. The frequency and intensity really only shoot up in that nine year period. So I guess we can dismiss that as anecdotal.

[HMS_Beagle]

Global warming must be a hoax because every evening in your neighborhood the temperature drops 10-20 deg. F. Right seer?

[TheLurch]

Hey listen, I have not seen any model that point to a 17 year slowdown, especially in light of the fact that more Co2 has been pumped into the atmosphere. I thought that would have just the opposite effect - to raise temperatures. So I guess Co2 could actually lower temperatures, or slow the rise.

Then why didn't you actually ask whether any models show periods of slower warming, rather than claiming that none of them did?

[seer]

Global warming must be a hoax because every evening in your neighborhood the temperature drops 10-20 deg. F. Right seer?

I never said that global warming was a hoax. I think it is pretty clear that the average global temperature has risen about one degree since the late 1800s. Is that partially or partly due to man? Will it really cause as much harm as predicted?

[seer]

Then why didn't you actually ask whether any models show periods of slower warming, rather than claiming that none of them did?

Well I had this debate a while back, and no one from that side actually offered a model that did - therefore I assumed that none did. But if you have one, please link it.