Originally posted by lee_merrill
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A whale of a tale
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Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostNo, I'm granting the paper their results, and concluding that even then, the probability of whale evolution is low.
"Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."
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Ok, the whale argument phenomenally stupid for a variety of reasons, but i'm going to focus on the genetic aspect since it's the one i understand best. The mindnumbingly awful video and Lee's extensions to it are basically saying "specific mutations are rare, and so the specific mutations needed to make a whale must be REALLY rare, therefore whales could not exist due to mutations."
Let's break that down a bit more. Specific mutations - changing A at position 347896 of chromosome 4 to a G probably doesn't happen often. That's the only thing that's right.
Are specific mutations needed to make a whale? Nope. Whales largely have the same gene set as any other mammal. The genes are just deployed differently. How does that happen? By changes in the timing, level, and location of the genes. And doing so does not involve specific changes. The regulatory DNA that controls these aspects of gene activity is extensive, and changes in any of it generally produce incremental differences. As a result, you can typically have an enormous range of mutations (or combinations of mutations) that accomplish the same thing. Arguments based on a single, specific change are therefore completely irrelevant to speciation.
Yet that's the only thing Lee's giving us numbers for. Because he has absolutely no idea what he's talking about.
Do any of these mutations have to go to full fixation? Probably not. See, for example, the fact that many species of whale sporadically develop vestigial hind limb bones. Most traits allow a degree of flexibility, as does the fact that different combinations of mutations in regulatory DNA can accomplish the same thing. Some changes will undoubtedly end up fixed over time, just because that's how genetic drift works. But many of them don't necessarily need to be for a population to express a trait.
But Lee has the numbers for fixation, so that's what he uses, since he doesn't know any better.
Finally, there's the stupid argument that if one mutation takes this long, you can't have all the mutations you need to make a whale. Which of course is the difference between solving problems in sequence and doing so in parallel. Evolution works in parallel - you can lose hindlimb and redeploy your fat to form blubber at the same time. But Lee continues to ignore that fact no matter how often it gets pointed out to him.
I could go on - the video says a lot of garbage about ghost lineages, apparently unaware that we KNOW they have existed thanks to genomic evidence. But the only one who thinks it isn't complete garbage here is Lee. And i've seen no evidence that Lee has ever recognized that he's wrong and changed his mind, no matter what evidence anyone else shares here."Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."
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Originally posted by TheLurch View PostBased on what? Your vast lack of understanding of biology?
Blessings,
Lee
"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
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Originally posted by TheLurch View PostFinally, there's the stupid argument that if one mutation takes this long, you can't have all the mutations you need to make a whale. Which of course is the difference between solving problems in sequence and doing so in parallel. Evolution works in parallel - you can lose hindlimb and redeploy your fat to form blubber at the same time.
Blessings,
Lee
"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostCertainly, but the probability of independent events all occurring, in parallel, is the multiplied probability of each event, which decreases exponentially.
Blessings,
LeeGlendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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Originally posted by Seeker View Post
Enron?
Enron Scandal: The Fall of a Wall Street Darling - Investopedia
www.investopedia.com › ... › Crime & Fraud
The Enron scandal drew attention to accounting and corporate fraud as its shareholders lost $74 billion in the four years leading up to its bankruptcy, and its employees lost billions in pension benefits. Increased regulation and oversight have been enacted to help prevent corporate scandals of Enron's magnitude.
ENRON was the company that developed massive bookkeeping dishonesty. The ID creationist do this unethically and dishonestly with statistics and probability throughout their publications.
American Statistical Association (ASA) has standards of ethics for the use of statistics and probability in science, and the ID community trashes them all.
Last edited by shunyadragon; 10-01-2020, 07:42 AM.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
No, ENRON probability does not pass muster in science.
Blessings,
Lee
"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostBut this is basic probability, P(A and B) where A and B are independent is P(A) x P(B).
Blessings,
Lee
I documented a whole thread to academic references that Behe and others unethically and dishonestly misused statistics, and repeated the references numerous times and you did not respond.
Shall I repost many references again, and again and again. . . maybe one more time.Last edited by shunyadragon; 10-01-2020, 07:28 PM.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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The following reference is a good introduction.
Read on . . .Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
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Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostBut this is basic probability, P(A and B) where A and B are independent is P(A) x P(B).
Blessings,
Lee
https://theologyweb.com/campus/forum...me-again/page3
I noticed you have not responded to my references on homochirility. Cat got your tongue or more likely you just do not understand them. I can post more . . .Last edited by shunyadragon; 10-01-2020, 08:19 PM.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
-
Originally posted by lee_merrill View PostBut this is basic probability, P(A and B) where A and B are independent is P(A) x P(B).
Blessings,
Lee
Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
-
How many ID Creationists are members of and/or affiliated with the American Statistical Association
Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
Comment
-
Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
Again . . . read the references concerning ID dishonest misuse of p values in the old thread I brought up and you failed to address.
Blessings,
Lee
"What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)
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