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Societal Energy Sources in 2114

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  • #16
    Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    And this does not even try to factor in the effect of the unsustainable exponential population growth. We are over 7 billion right now. Up from 4 billion just 50 years ago. Another 100 years at that rate is somewhere near 28 billion. I have no idea how such a world could survive with less energy resources than we have now.
    I don't expect the population growth to continue unabated. From what I understand, and Wikipedia seems to back this, the rate of growth has actually been declining for the last few decades. More, and this I know from more scholarly sources, as countries develop their population growth tends to decline. Most prominent countries have < 1% growth now.

    Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth

    Actual measured data are given to 2010 and extrapolated estimates beyond that. If the linear trend holds and growth rate continues to decline, population growth rate will fall to zero in about 2080. Population will peak and begin declining thereafter. The Malthus exponential model, modified to reflect the linear growth rate trend, suggests that world population will peak at about 10.3 billion. This, of course, is speculative but is consistent with other models showing a population peak in the latter part of the 21st century.

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    Other estimates I've seen give us a peak population of about 11 billion. If that weren't enough, multiple countries are experiencing upward trends in median population age. I could be quite wrong, but I'd expect this to result in a relatively sharp population decline once that aged population transitions into morbidity rates.
    I'm not here anymore.

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