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Societal Energy Sources in 2114

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  • Societal Energy Sources in 2114

    Since any attempt so far to get a discussion going on the theological and scientific origins issue has gone over like a lead zeppelin, how about we talk about energy?

    In the year 2114, do you

    1) Believe that Peak Petroleum will have occurred? Or do you accept at all the concept of Peak Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal?

    2) Assuming that fossil fuels will be more or less obsolete by 2114, what energy sources will have replaced them? Bear in mind that the U.S. alone consumes power at the rate of circa 3.1 Terawatts, and that something like 85% of primary energy in the U.S. comes from fossil fuels. (The U.S. consumes about 25% of the world's oil and has about the same percent of economic productivity.)

    Hopefully this topic will generate some interest, as power is sine qua non for the existence of modern civilization, and conservation, though wonderful, can only do so much.

    K54

  • #2
    Originally posted by klaus54 View Post
    Since any attempt so far to get a discussion going on the theological and scientific origins issue has gone over like a lead zeppelin, how about we talk about energy?

    In the year 2114, do you
    I do not like to get too specific as to what is the trends in this year, because this trend in the relationship of production and demand will likely be over a period of five to ten years, but here goes.

    1) Believe that Peak Petroleum will have occurred? Or do you accept at all the concept of Peak Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal?
    Peak Fossil Fuel Energy is definitely either here or near, and energy demands are increasing.

    2) Assuming that fossil fuels will be more or less obsolete by 2114, what energy sources will have replaced them? Bear in mind that the U.S. alone consumes power at the rate of circa 3.1 Terawatts, and that something like 85% of primary energy in the U.S. comes from fossil fuels. (The U.S. consumes about 25% of the world's oil and has about the same percent of economic productivity.)
    I believe obsolete is not the right word. The fact is we will be dependent on fossil fuels for a long time. The cost of energy in the future because of the increasingly limited supply will be the elephant in the room we cannot avoid. There are limited alternatives of replacement sources of energy other then nuclear. There will be more solar, geothermal, wind, some alternatives like tidal and ocean currents to be developed, these cannot possible meet a significant amount of our increasing needs.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-14-2014, 07:45 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
      I do not like to get too specific as to what is the trends in this year, because this trend in the relationship of production and demand will likely be over a period of five to ten years, but here goes.



      Peak Fossil Fuel Energy is definitely either here or near, and energy demands are increasing.



      I believe obsolete is not the right word. The fact is we will be dependent on fossil fuels for a long time. The cost of energy in the future because of the increasingly limited supply will be the elephant in the room we cannot avoid. There are limited alternatives of replacement sources of energy other then nuclear. There will be more solar, geothermal, wind, some alternatives like tidal and ocean currents to be developed, these cannot possible meet a significant amount of our increasing needs.
      These are elements Glenn Morton often elaborates on at our yearly ranch get=togethers. Though I am not an oil man, one of the things I've learned is that the energy density and convenience of transport of oil makes it a very, very difficult resource to replace. Solar, wind - as a primary resource, can't even come close. Shale has tended to provide a certain buffer for the impact of peak oil, and he has been a bit surprised it is doing as well as it is. Nevertheless, unless we can find a way to efficiently produce it or something like it (via nuclear or some massive solar farm(s)), we will definitely be less well off in 2114 than we are now. And this does not even try to factor in the effect of the unsustainable exponential population growth. We are over 7 billion right now. Up from 4 billion just 50 years ago. Another 100 years at that rate is somewhere near 28 billion. I have no idea how such a world could survive with less energy resources than we have now.

      Jim
      He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

      "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
        I believe obsolete is not the right word. The fact is we will be dependent on fossil fuels for a long time.
        The question is: are there enough fossil fuels for us to be dependent on them for a long time?

        Roy
        Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

        mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

        Mountain Man: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
        Mountain Man: … this is how liberals argue these days, with labels instead of ideas.

        Comment


        • #5
          I think one of the ways we can get power generation (at least supplemented) now is to use sewage/wastewater that we generate by the tons into gas to drive generators. It's a by product of civilization and is basically free for the taking. There are several systems already designed and in use.


          An anaerobic system to a gas engine:
          http://www.jfe-eng.co.jp/en/products...nt/aqua01.html

          and a system to Fuel Cells:
          http://www.greenm3.com/gdcblog/2010/...-power-ge.html

          According to this wiki, up to 17% of car fuel could be replaced with biogases:
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biogas
          "What has the Church gained if it is popular, but there is no conviction, no repentance, no power?" - A.W. Tozer

          "... there are two parties in Washington, the stupid party and the evil party, who occasionally get together and do something both stupid and evil, and this is called bipartisanship." - Everett Dirksen

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
            ...
            I believe obsolete is not the right word. The fact is we will be dependent on fossil fuels for a long time. The cost of energy in the future because of the increasingly limited supply will be the elephant in the room we cannot avoid. There are limited alternatives of replacement sources of energy other then nuclear. There will be more solar, geothermal, wind, some alternatives like tidal and ocean currents to be developed, these cannot possible meet a significant amount of our increasing needs.
            Agreed. I used a poor choice of term. Fossil fuels will always be here but demand will exceed production and eventually their usefulness as a significant power source will dwindle to almost nil. We will always need portable liquid fuels for jets, as a well as a source chemical for plastics.

            And as you say, demand for power will continue to grow until there's developing world population and cultural advancement stabilizes and/or there is a crash in the growth of developed civilization.

            K54

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
              These are elements Glenn Morton often elaborates on at our yearly ranch get=togethers. Though I am not an oil man, one of the things I've learned is that the energy density and convenience of transport of oil makes it a very, very difficult resource to replace. Solar, wind - as a primary resource, can't even come close. Shale has tended to provide a certain buffer for the impact of peak oil, and he has been a bit surprised it is doing as well as it is. Nevertheless, unless we can find a way to efficiently produce it or something like it (via nuclear or some massive solar farm(s)), we will definitely be less well off in 2114 than we are now. And this does not even try to factor in the effect of the unsustainable exponential population growth. We are over 7 billion right now. Up from 4 billion just 50 years ago. Another 100 years at that rate is somewhere near 28 billion. I have no idea how such a world could survive with less energy resources than we have now.

              Jim
              Good points all. Portability and energy density (joules/mole) are what made petroleum the mother of all fuels. An anthropologist could easily argue that the developed world has been in the Oil Age since 1900 and that cultural age is short-lived and has been responsible for the wild success of the modern developed world. One that plug is pulled -- who knows? It likely won't be pretty.

              K54

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Littlejoe View Post
                I think one of the ways we can get power generation (at least supplemented) now is to use sewage/wastewater that we generate by the tons into gas to drive generators. It's a by product of civilization and is basically free for the taking. There are several systems already designed and in use.


                An anaerobic system to a gas engine:
                http://www.jfe-eng.co.jp/en/products...nt/aqua01.html

                and a system to Fuel Cells:
                http://www.greenm3.com/gdcblog/2010/...-power-ge.html

                According to this wiki, up to 17% of car fuel could be replaced with biogases:
                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biogas
                I believe there will be a hodge-podge of power sources rather than a single silver bullet. Sewage gas could certainly be among the hodge-podge. The fact that "up to 17%" of car fuel could come from this source is good example of one member the hodge-podge set.

                K54

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by klaus54 View Post
                  Since any attempt so far to get a discussion going on the theological and scientific origins issue has gone over like a lead zeppelin
                  For reasons that you cannot comprehend.


                  how about we talk about energy?
                  Okay ... worth a few minutes ...


                  In the year 2114, do you

                  1) Believe that Peak Petroleum will have occurred? Or do you accept at all the concept of Peak Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal?
                  "Peak" ANY natural resource is a logical inevitability. Why? Simple : we are speaking of finite resources that are in ever-increasing demand. Oil, for example, only exists in limited QTYs (be it 10 trillion barrels or whatever) yet is being consumed at about 82 million barrels per day (if you believe the numbers being published). Therefore, "Peak Oil" is a mathematical certainty.

                  As with all things of this nature there will always be oil, it will simply become harder and harder to extract and, therefore, it will be more and more expensive -- simple Law of Supply and Demand. One day in the not too distant future oil will be at $200/barrel, then $500/barrel and then $5,000 per barrel. Everyone's "hope" is that an alternative is found well before then.

                  The main issue is that of energy density. Solar is much too diffuse - huge areas ("collectors") are needed in order to get enough energy to be of any commercial value.


                  Ran out of time ............. got'ta go..............

                  Jorge

                  2) Assuming that fossil fuels will be more or less obsolete by 2114, what energy sources will have replaced them? Bear in mind that the U.S. alone consumes power at the rate of circa 3.1 Terawatts, and that something like 85% of primary energy in the U.S. comes from fossil fuels. (The U.S. consumes about 25% of the world's oil and has about the same percent of economic productivity.)

                  Hopefully this topic will generate some interest, as power is sine qua non for the existence of modern civilization, and conservation, though wonderful, can only do so much.

                  K54
                  Last edited by Jorge; 04-17-2014, 10:24 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Jorge View Post
                    For reasons that you cannot comprehend.
                    You're right about that! But you could at least try...


                    Originally posted by Jorge

                    Okay ... worth a few minutes ...


                    "Peak" ANY natural resource is a logical inevitability. Why? Simple : we are speaking of finite resources that are in ever-increasing demand. Oil, for example, only exists in limited QTYs (be it 10 trillion barrels or whatever) yet is being consumed at about 82 million barrels per day (if you believe the numbers being published). Therefore, "Peak Oil" is a mathematical certainty.

                    As with all things of this nature there will always be oil, it will simply become harder and harder to extract and, therefore, it will be more and more expensive -- simple Law of Supply and Demand. One day in the not too distant future oil will be at $200/barrel, then $500/barrel and then $5,000 per barrel. Everyone's "hope" is that an alternative is found well before then.

                    The main issue is that of energy density. Solar is much too diffuse - huge areas ("collectors") are needed in order to get enough energy to be of any commercial value.


                    Ran out of time ............. got'ta go..............

                    Jorge
                    You pretty much agreed with what I wrote. It's this "hope" that's the most dangerous culturally. Psychologists would call it a "Status Quo Bias" plus "Proximal Cognition", and transference of responsibility to a "higher power" -- smart people like inventors and engineers will always be able to find a solution.

                    The fact is there is no one source that can replace the portability, energy density, and (former) abundance of petroleum. The sooner hoi poloi get that in their noggins, the better.

                    K54

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by klaus54 View Post
                      smart people like inventors and engineers will always be able to find a solution.

                      K54
                      I wish that were so. Fact is, there are some problems that do not have a solution or a solution that is viable and/or timely. One example is when engineers are faced with show-stopping obstacles such as the laws of thermodynamics. They can try all they want, they aren't going to get energy for 'free'.

                      Fusion reactors, as another example, may one day become a reality. But if that day is 200 years into the future then it's not going to help us much. When 'cheap' energy becomes unavailable -- very soon in our future -- this will have a humongous, unpleasant impact on modern life that few people have bothered to consider.

                      Jorge

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I believe a future source of energy may be deep earth energy heat resources. e are currently developing hydrothermal energy in many places, but we have not yet developed the technology to go really deep deep where it is really hot!

                        The following is some of the latest.

                        Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/06/06/geothermal-plant-saskatchewan-first-in-canada_n_3397564.html



                        Deep Earth Energy Production Project Will Be First In Canada

                        If all goes according to plan, rural Saskatchewan will be home to Canada's first geothermal plant.

                        Saskatchewan company Deep Earth Energy Production Corp. expects to start building the plant - which will use heat trapped deep beneath the earth to run turbines that will turn that heat energy into electricity - next year, the company explains.

                        The plant, which is expected to be located near Estevan, will produce five megawatts of power, roughly the power required for 5,000 homes, DEEP states.

                        © Copyright Original Source

                        Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-17-2014, 08:49 PM.
                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                          I believe a future source of energy may be deep earth energy heat resources. e are currently developing hydrothermal energy in many places, but we have not yet developed the technology to go really deep deep where it is really hot!

                          The following is some of the latest.

                          Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/06/06/geothermal-plant-saskatchewan-first-in-canada_n_3397564.html



                          Deep Earth Energy Production Project Will Be First In Canada

                          If all goes according to plan, rural Saskatchewan will be home to Canada's first geothermal plant.

                          Saskatchewan company Deep Earth Energy Production Corp. expects to start building the plant - which will use heat trapped deep beneath the earth to run turbines that will turn that heat energy into electricity - next year, the company explains.

                          The plant, which is expected to be located near Estevan, will produce five megawatts of power, roughly the power required for 5,000 homes, DEEP states.

                          © Copyright Original Source

                          Interesting, but how deep? Shallow geothermal generates 25% of Iceland's electricity, but they sit atop the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The deepest drill holes were a bit over 12 km. Those deep holes are engineering nightmares due to geostatic pressure and high temperatures (which of course what we want!).

                          Is the idea that these "deep" holes could be used in non-hotspot regions? If so, it would be great idea since traditional geothermal electric is geologically limited.

                          Another problem with geothermal are the scale deposits on the heat exchangers, but that's a problem that can be worked around.

                          K54

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jorge View Post
                            I wish that were so. Fact is, there are some problems that do not have a solution or a solution that is viable and/or timely. One example is when engineers are faced with show-stopping obstacles such as the laws of thermodynamics. They can try all they want, they aren't going to get energy for 'free'.

                            Fusion reactors, as another example, may one day become a reality. But if that day is 200 years into the future then it's not going to help us much. When 'cheap' energy becomes unavailable -- very soon in our future -- this will have a humongous, unpleasant impact on modern life that few people have bothered to consider.

                            Jorge
                            Yes, I know it ain't easy. The point about always being able to find an answer is a psychological artifact of the vast scientifically-illiterate populace. The same are pandered to by politicians who tell them that all their problems will be solved if they just vote for the right party, and I don't mean just energy problems.

                            Thanks for your insightful contribution, Jorge! We're on the same page with this issue at least.

                            K54

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I seem to have read something about in-ground small-scale nuclear reactors. I don't know where these are in development, but the concepts made some sense. Leaks are less of an issue given the proper depth, and if placed properly they could serve specific communities without undergoing as much transmission loss. Security would also be easier to maintain for several reasons, not least of which is the reduced area needing to be secured.
                              I'm not here anymore.

                              Comment

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