New research indicates that humanity may have been on the brink of extinction between 813,000 and 930,000 years ago, being reduced to just about 1300 reproducing individuals. Geneticists suggest that this bottleneck could have led to increased inbreeding and a subsequent loss in human genetic diversity that has persisted to this day. Whatever caused this drastic reduction must have had long-term effects since the population didn't really start expanding again for roughly another 117,000 years.
Such a sharp drop in population could explain why fossils from this time have been scarce.
The time in question, known as the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT), did experience massive climate shifts, but that started a good deal before the sudden drop in the human population (approximately 1.25 mya).
Nick Ashton, a Paleolithic archaeologist at the British Museum's Department of Britain, Europe and Prehistory, and who is not involved with the study, suggests that any population crash only impacted a limited group, perhaps in Africa, who may have been the ancestors of modern humans, while not much affecting other groups of humans who aren't our ancestors.
Those affected were Homo heidelbergensis, considered to be the most recent common ancestor for both modern humans and Neanderthals.
The paper is Genomic inference of a severe human bottleneck during the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition, with the summary and abstract from it posted below:
Such a sharp drop in population could explain why fossils from this time have been scarce.
The time in question, known as the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT), did experience massive climate shifts, but that started a good deal before the sudden drop in the human population (approximately 1.25 mya).
Nick Ashton, a Paleolithic archaeologist at the British Museum's Department of Britain, Europe and Prehistory, and who is not involved with the study, suggests that any population crash only impacted a limited group, perhaps in Africa, who may have been the ancestors of modern humans, while not much affecting other groups of humans who aren't our ancestors.
Those affected were Homo heidelbergensis, considered to be the most recent common ancestor for both modern humans and Neanderthals.
The paper is Genomic inference of a severe human bottleneck during the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition, with the summary and abstract from it posted below:
Editor’s summary
Today, there are more than 8 billion human beings on the planet. We dominate Earth’s landscapes, and our activities are driving large numbers of other species to extinction. Had a researcher looked at the world sometime between 800,000 and 900,000 years ago, however, the picture would have been quite different. Hu et al. used a newly developed coalescent model to predict past human population sizes from more than 3000 present-day human genomes (see the Perspective by Ashton and Stringer). The model detected a reduction in the population size of our ancestors from about 100,000 to about 1000 individuals, which persisted for about 100,000 years. The decline appears to have coincided with both major climate change and subsequent speciation events. —Sacha Vignieri
Abstract
Population size history is essential for studying human evolution. However, ancient population size history during the Pleistocene is notoriously difficult to unravel. In this study, we developed a fast infinitesimal time coalescent process (FitCoal) to circumvent this difficulty and calculated the composite likelihood for present-day human genomic sequences of 3154 individuals. Results showed that human ancestors went through a severe population bottleneck with about 1280 breeding individuals between around 930,000 and 813,000 years ago. The bottleneck lasted for about 117,000 years and brought human ancestors close to extinction. This bottleneck is congruent with a substantial chronological gap in the available African and Eurasian fossil record. Our results provide new insights into our ancestry and suggest a coincident speciation event.
Today, there are more than 8 billion human beings on the planet. We dominate Earth’s landscapes, and our activities are driving large numbers of other species to extinction. Had a researcher looked at the world sometime between 800,000 and 900,000 years ago, however, the picture would have been quite different. Hu et al. used a newly developed coalescent model to predict past human population sizes from more than 3000 present-day human genomes (see the Perspective by Ashton and Stringer). The model detected a reduction in the population size of our ancestors from about 100,000 to about 1000 individuals, which persisted for about 100,000 years. The decline appears to have coincided with both major climate change and subsequent speciation events. —Sacha Vignieri
Abstract
Population size history is essential for studying human evolution. However, ancient population size history during the Pleistocene is notoriously difficult to unravel. In this study, we developed a fast infinitesimal time coalescent process (FitCoal) to circumvent this difficulty and calculated the composite likelihood for present-day human genomic sequences of 3154 individuals. Results showed that human ancestors went through a severe population bottleneck with about 1280 breeding individuals between around 930,000 and 813,000 years ago. The bottleneck lasted for about 117,000 years and brought human ancestors close to extinction. This bottleneck is congruent with a substantial chronological gap in the available African and Eurasian fossil record. Our results provide new insights into our ancestry and suggest a coincident speciation event.
Comment