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Covid-19 death toll equals and will likely exceed the 1918-1919 flu pandemic

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Sparko View Post

    Looks like the only mindless noise is coming from your responses, Shuny. You merely repeat yourself every time without saying anything coherent.
    Careful now, cause his next step is embiggening words and underlining, like he's some psychotic school marm who has lost her temper...

    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post

    More mindless noise without a coherent response, with references!
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

      Careful now, cause his next step is embiggening words and underlining, like he's some psychotic school marm who has lost her temper...



      Still waiting . . .
      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

      go with the flow the river knows . . .

      Frank

      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post


        Still waiting . . .
        Good, just wait quietly.
        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

          Good, just wait quietly.
          Still waiting for competent coherent responses. Guilt by your self imposed ignorance and silence.

          It would nice if you could provide actual references that document significant over count.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post

            Still waiting for competent coherent responses. Guilt by your self imposed ignorance and silence.

            It would nice if you could provide actual references that document significant over count.
            Do that "still waiting" thing with the bolding and underlining. That always makes me smile.
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post

              Do that "still waiting" thing with the bolding and underlining. That always makes me smile.
              Smiles are not intelligent nor coherent responses. Puppets can smile.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                Looks like the only mindless noise is coming from your responses, Shuny. You merely repeat yourself every time without saying anything coherent.
                I provided references all you have posted is noise.

                Still waiting . . .
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                  True, but do you know of anyone warning that we're only at the third way point?

                  Moreover, FWICT, a hundred years ago there didn't seem to be a propensity for listing someone killed in, say a train accident, as dying from the Spanish Flu.
                  A couple of things to say on this topic. For one, it's possible to take the typical pre-pandemic mortality rate of countries, project it forward to their growing populations, and see how the projections compare to what actually happened. The global estimates from the WHO and the IHME both indicate that there's a large excess of mortality that isn't ascribed to COVID-19. A similar analysis of US data (you can toggle on the US in the first graph) shows that there's essentially no difference.

                  Now, obviously the pandemic is changing mortality rates in various ways - people are leaving the house and going to work less often, so lower accidental mortality, strained healthcare systems and deferred healthcare are raising it, etc. But this suggests that the impact of all those things - along with anecdotes of misreported causes of death - aren't having a significant impact on reported fatalities in the US.

                  (Incidentally, while researching this, came across this page, which performs a similar analysis for 1918-1919, which indicates the earlier pandemic's reporter was also likely to be pretty accurate.)


                  As for the larger question: clearly, the 1918 pandemic had a larger impact on the US as a whole. What's arguable is whether COVID-19 should have had the effect it has. In contrast to 1918, we had the full genome of SARS-CoV-2 less than a month after it was recognized, diagnostic tests a few weeks after that, and effective vaccines within a year. You could certainly argue that those should have keep the total fatalities lower than 1918; in a significant number of European countries, for example, the per-capita fatalities, if extrapolated to the US, would have kept us well below the 1918 mark.

                  But that's a completely different argument from a simplistic "this is worse than 1918."
                  "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    I should clarify - the US has mostly gotten the reporting right during periods when cases levels were moderate. It does worse during surges, when it starts seeing significant excess mortality. That's to be expected due to the general strain on the healthcare system and the shortage of testing that both occur during surges.
                    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                    Comment

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